Weekly Report May 04, 2013

 

 

Hammersmith Marketing Ltd  - Grain Trading

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   May 04, 2013

                                                       (a Bahamas Corporation)

 

 

France:  Rep. Office: 33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: 33.6.8068.4564    Fax: 33.4.5774.7575

13-220 Quartier La Galine, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

Head Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com       SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

 

SECTION 1:  FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Another very strong week for corn prices and not too bad for soymeal either.

 

With the planting of corn running so far behind, the addition of some very bad weather in parts of the USA pushed prices much higher – in futures it was limit up on Monday.  There was even some very late snow in parts of the USA that got corn traders, and probably many farmers, very excited.  Old crop corn prices were up by almost USD 20 m/t with the new crop prices up about USD 15 m/t.

 

One good sign for corn is that the longer-term weather forecast does call for much better weather so that farmers can complete their plantings and those wee corn seeds can get to work.  As I mentioned last week, late planting by a couple of weeks does not necessarily mean lower yields.

 

The next three weeks or so will probably see a great many very active days for prices as weather concerns combine with planting concerns and prices chase every rumour in the market.

 

Soybean prices were also up on the week, especially for the last of the old crop which is in very short supply.  The backlog of shipping in Brazil is getting a little better and we are getting closer and closer to the time when USA soybean prices will have to drop to levels closer to Brazil and Argentina.  As it is today there is a USD 45 m/t premium for old crop soybeans over new crop and those two prices are going to get much closer together once everything is working well out of South America.

 

In the next while there is also going to be more concern about soybean plantings and how much of a switch, if any, there is from corn to soybeans.  Experts feel that there will be some and that new crop soybeans could see their price drop quite a bit lower due to expected additional supply.

 

 

USA Exports – Jan/March 2013 – major importing countries  - in m/t

  

Country	Wheat - all	Corn	Sorghum	Soymeal
Canada				215,700
China	318,100	1,020,100
Columbia				200,200
Cuba		105,500
Denmark				193,500
Egypt	1,238,900			183,900
Italy			42,800	120,900
Japan	1,063,400	1,272,000	51,100
Kenya			26,100
Mexico		839,600	318,100	154,400
Nigeria	752,700
Philippines	481,300
Poland				199,500
South Korea	264,800
Spain			35,500
Taiwan	273,350	129,400
Turkey	326,700			227,200
Venezuela		182,500		162,500
Vietnam				120,200
Total all exports	7,338,300	4,035,300	497,600	2,760,400
Change fm 2012	Up 19%	Down 58%	Up 106%	Up 93%

   

 

FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 289/294 May/July
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 338/342
Wheat, milling Black Sea 11.5 pro	USD 275/280 July/August
Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port	USD 325/328
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 315/325 May/June
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 275>>260 May>>Aug
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 279/281
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 255/265 Dec 2013
Barley, feed, Black Sea	USD 300>>265 May>>Aug
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 273/278

 

 

Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD  300>>292 May>>July
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD  266>>250  May/July
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD  245>>230  July/Aug/Sep
Corn, FOB Black Sea	USD  275>>265 May>>Aug
Corn, FOB France	USD  292/295
Sorghum, Black Sea	USD  n/a
Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free	USD  310>>295
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free	USD  asked 220/bid 205 May/July

 

 

Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD  506/509 May/June
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD  539/543 May/June
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD  519>>455 Spot>>/J/J/A
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD  477>>420  May>>/J/J/A
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD  518>>447 Spot>>/J/J/A
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD  430>>416  May>>J/J/A
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB	USD  650/660

 

 

Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t

 

Corn Gluten Feed,  USA FOB NOLA	USD   230/235 m/t
Corn Gluten Meal,  USA FOB NOLA	USD   590/600 m/t
DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   287>>284 m/t May/June
DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asian ports	USD   353/361 m/t

 

The rally in corn prices this week was not mirrored in the by-products markets as only corn gluten feed moved a little higher as both corn gluten meal and DDGS could be bought for much of the week at slightly lower prices.  Of course this will not continue, as a prolonged rally in corn will certainly push these by-product prices higher too.

 

Not much export business was seen this week as the jump in corn had buyers worried about trying to buy anything at all related to corn. 

 

It also seems that the situation on the Mississippi River has improved this year and barges are getting to New Orleans much easier which is lowering the CNF NOLA prices a little.

 

Experts are saying that with the current problems seen with corn planting and probable late pollination, there should be good reason to expect prices for all by-products to remain quite firm until the situation with corn changes a little.

 

On the DDGS side, it looks like ethanol stocks are dropping which could mean an increase in production in coming weeks, which would raise the stocks of DDGS (along with increasing corn demand)  -- so will we see lower prices for DDGS – very difficult to know.

 

 

USA Exports – Jan/March 2013 – major importing countries  - in m/t

 

Country	Distillers Dried Grains	Corn Gluten Feed	Corn Gluten Meal
Canada	118,600	6,000	13,700
Chile			35,900
China	436,000
Columbia			12,500
Egypt			58,500
Indonesia	60,100	9,600	43,200
Ireland		70,600
Israel		24,700	10,400
Japan	106,500
Malaysia			13,000
Mexico	283,900		33,600
Morocco		13,500
South Korea	76,100
Thailand	68,600
Turkey	135,300	63,100
Vietnam	88,800
Total all exports	1,794,800	199,300	268,600
Change	Down 4%	Up 2%	Up 2%

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein	USD no prices
Brazil Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein	USD no prices
Paraguay Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 535/540 m/t CNF Asia
Europe Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 520/550 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein	USD 730/750 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM , 45 protein	USD 670/675 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM, 50 protein	USD 725/735 m/t CNF Asia
Australian Feathermeal	USD 820/840 m/t CNF Asia
USA Feathermeal, 80 protein	USD 830/850 m/t CNF Asia
USA Poultry Meal, feed grade	USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia
USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 1100/1120 m/t CNF Asia
Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade	USD 1125/1140 m/t CNF Asia

 

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein	USD  450/470 m/t
Feathermeal  80 protein USA	USD  650/670 m/t
Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA	USD  530/540 m/t

 

  

Not too much at all to report in animal protein prices this week as, other than a little weakness in feathermeal, there was not much change at all in the market – neither in the USA or the international markets.

 

Comments from the US seem to suggest that animal protein prices are now at a very attractive level for domestic feed producers so that there could easily be some increase in demand in coming weeks but then, as pointed out previously, we are also into the time of the year in the USA when supply increases so it may be difficult for animal protein prices to show any strength.

 

If you compare the animal protein export levels shown below with the corn by-product and soymeal export levels than you can see what a small share of the export protein business is held by animal proteins.

 

USA Exports – Jan/March 2013 – major importing countries  - in m/t

 

Country	Meat and Bone Meal – incl pork and poultry	Feathermeal
Indonesia	7,700	24,330
Chile		12,800
Germany		1,300
Philippines	12,300
Canada	9,800
Mexico	7,600
China	5,500
Thailand	5,900
Total all exports	59,715	39,200
Change	Down 6%	Up 230%

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

There is little or no business being done in fishmeal from Peru at present as buyers are all waiting to see what happens to prices.  The price direction seems to depend on which trade report you read the opinion on price direction is split between the up experts and the down experts.  The "ups" are convinced that the low quota combined with expected good demand will keep prices high will the "downs" are saying that while the quota may be low the demand from China will be even lower and prices for the lower grades should drop.

 

It is interesting to note that the expected level of imports for China is back down to levels last seen seven or eight years ago with their overall consumption level for fishmeal back at 2006 levels – about 18 percent below recent yearly levels.

 

Also very interesting is the fact that the producer's order books are not full this year. Normally, coming up to the season, all the big buyers have covered their needs for the next few months but this year the noted level of preseason sales is almost zero.  Does this mean that big buyers like China and Germany will suddenly jump in and buy up the market or will we have to see some softer prices before major buyers are convinced that it is time to do some buying.

 

At present it is tough to know exactly where the prices are going to go in the near term but if there is no business it will not be easy to keep prices at the current levels the closer we get to the fishing season starting.

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port
FAQ basis 65 protein	1650/1700 m/t
65/66 pro standard steam	1800/1830 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1850/1870 m/t
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1910/1960 m/t
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1950/2000 m/t
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	2000/2050 m/t
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	2120/2130 m/t
Fish oil .. crude bulk	2500/2550
Fish oil – crude drums	2650/2700
Fish oil – flexitank	2600/2650
Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA	2900/3000

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

Wayne Bacon

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete.  Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy.  All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon