Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT May 18, 2013
(a Bahamas Corporation)
France: Rep. Office: 33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: 33.6.8068.4564 Fax: 33.4.5774.7575
13-220 Quartier La Galine, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Head Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
One thing that you can certainly say about the American farmer is that they certainly know how to plant corn. It is expected that the planting estimate on Monday from the USDA will show up to 70 percent of corn now planted. That is a tremendous amount of planting in a one-week period. The National Corn Growers Association has said that the late planting should not affect to corn yields but some experts disagree and say that the 30+ percent that still has to be planted after this week will be very late planting and that share could suffer lower yields. Of course, it really depends on exactly where the last percentage of corn to be planted actually is located. Perhaps it is in the north where planting is always a little later – we will see when the planting estimates come out.
Old crop corn prices were higher on the week as supplies are tight while the new crop corn prices slid a little lower on the continued anticipation of a very good corn crop. The trade reports on the old crop corn situation are of two opinions: some say that the farmer is holding old crop waiting for higher prices while other say that there is very little old crop corn in the country, so prices should be higher. Tough to know which is correct.
As everyone may know, the US Grains Council, National Corn Growers Association, Argentina's MAIZAR (corn producers association) and Brazil's ABRAMILHO have all agreed to "collaborate on a global basis to address key issues concerning food security, biotechnology, stewardship , trade and producer image". The organization formed will operate as MAIZALL – the International Maize Alliance.
Soybeans and soymeal had a very strong week with old crop soybeans up close to USD 20 m/t with soymeal up almost the same. Old crop soybeans and meal are still in short supply in the USA and the South American shipping situation is not as yet fully caught up. One positive not on Brazil for the future is that the Brazilian government is going to allow the investment of private sector funds both in state-owned ports but also in new private sector ports. It is hoped that in the long-term this will solve the severe logistics problems that Brazil faces every year.
Reports out of Argentina say that this years soybean crop is coming up with lower protein levels and that crushers are just not able to reach the levels of protein that have been normally offered to buyers. Perhaps this will push some business to the USA but with the tremendous price differential between South America and the USA probably only the very picky buyers will move to the USA. Old crop USA soybean prices are expected to stay high as supplies are limited and demand is very good but long term we are certainly looking to USA cash prices dropping by at least USD 40 m/t.
Looking at the export sales for soybeans and soymeal, there is certainly no weakness in the level of export sales as export soybean buyers need their supplies and if South America is delayed the USA is the only significant alternative.
FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 275/284 May/July |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 324/327 |
| Wheat, milling Black Sea 11.5 pro | USD 275>>265 July/August |
| Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD 310/313 |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 270/280 Dec/Jan new crop |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 265>>260 May>>Aug |
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 261/264 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 250/265 Dec/Jan new crop |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea | USD 265>>260 July>>Aug |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 280/285 |
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 298>>283 May>>July |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 261>>252 May/July |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 235>>220 July/Aug/Sep |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea | USD 280>>272 May>>Aug |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 282/285 |
| Sorghum, Black Sea | USD n/a |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free | USD 243/246 new crop Jul/Aug |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free | USD asked 223/bid 208 June/July |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 523>>485 May>Aug |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 553>>515 May>Aug |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 540>>465 Spot>>/J/J/A |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 492>>436 J/J/A/S |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 520>>460 Spot>>J/J/A |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 460>>430 J/J/A/S |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 650/660 |
Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 220/225 m/t |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 590/600 m/t |
| DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 284>>281 m/t June/Aug |
| DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asian ports | USD 356>>353 m/t June/Aug |
There has not been much change in the export prices for corn by-products this week but it has been reported that there has been some good demand for new by-product exports. DDGS in particular is said to be seeing quite a lot of interest from China although the trade does say that buyer's ideas are well below the current market prices. Buyers in Vietnam are also said to be quite active in the market with a good chunk of new container business booked to Vietnam.
Prices for corn by-products are expected to see steady to higher levels in coming days as there is very little reason for prices to move lower, especially for DDGS and corn gluten meal where protein is an important part of the products value and protein prices are certainly not wanting to go lower.
Ethanol production in the USA has increased which means more DDGS coming available but the change in supply is probably not enough to have a weakening effect on DDGS prices.
Export interest in corn gluten meal remains very good while corn gluten feed exports seem to be suffering a little at present.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD no prices |
| Brazil Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD no prices |
| Paraguay Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia |
| Europe Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD no prices |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein | USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM , 45 protein | USD 670/675 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM, 50 protein | USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian Feathermeal | USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Feathermeal, 80 protein | USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Poultry Meal, feed grade | USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 1020/1050 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade | USD 1050/1070 m/t CNF Asia |
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 440/460 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 620/630 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 520/530 m/t |
There is also not a great deal to say this week about animal protein prices but based on what has happened with soymeal prices you would expect to see some strength in USA domestic prices but that has not happened as yet. USA domestic demand for all animal proteins, except those for pet food, is at quite a low level at present but as soymeal increases in value animal proteins become more competitive and volume will pick up. Some experts have been saying the animal protein business will probably be slow for the next few weeks and that with good supplies and limited demand it will be hard to expect higher prices.
Export prices from the USA and from Australia were all about unchanged this week – well perhaps up a little here and down a little there but overall a quiet and uneventful week.
Paraguay prices were up a little and buyer's bids were too low for producers – especially from Vietnam where buyers like to be USD 30 m/t below the market price. Exporters don't see any reason at all to accept low bids when demand is strong, supply is limited and all protein prices seem to want to move higher.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
It looks like the fishmeal prices in Peru could have dropped off a little as there is some new buying interest but bids are below what had been the market price. Some trades say that the interest from China has picked up a little but that there has been no rush to buy. Perhaps the lower prices are so that producers can entice buyers into the market.
According to reports from China, they have good fishmeal stocks on hand or on the way but local consumption for aquafeed is still well below expected levels as cold weather has delayed the aqua season. However, there are reports in Peru that some new business to China has been booked but no one seems to know exactly how much was booked but most suspect not much more than 20 to 30,000 m/t for new season delivery.
As I write this, the fishing vessels in Peru should be beginning the new fishing season and I look forward to reports of decent catch once we see some numbers next week. The early catch numbers will probably help to get buyers looking at booking some fishmeal and it has been reported in the trade that the current price level may just be the low for the season as producers expect that the low quota couple with what should be good buying demand will keep prices very firm ---- that is if the big buyers get back into the market in Peru.
Just as a matter of information, there has been a great deal of press in the last few days about insect based protein meal and how it could be a very good alternative to fishmeal. It will probably take a few years before there is much international trade or even production of insect meal but from the early information available it may just prove to be a good alternative --- but it must be a heck of a job harvesting all those wee bugs. I wonder how many bugs it would take to replace 1 million m/t of fishmeal.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
| | |
| FAQ basis 65 protein | 1650/1700 m/t |
| 65/66 pro standard steam | 1780/1850 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1830/1860 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1880/1910 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1920/1970 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1970/2000 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 2050/2100 m/t |
| | |
| Fish oil .. crude bulk | 2500/2550 |
| Fish oil – crude drums | 2650/2700 |
| Fish oil – flexitank | 2600/2650 |
| Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA | 2900/3000 |
| | |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon
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