Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT August 24, 2013
France: Rep. Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
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SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
For corn prices this week, it was a very up and down week with prices wanting to go up one day then right back down the next. At the end of the week we had old crop corn up by about USD 8 m/t while the new crop was only up by USD 2.5 m/t – not the strongest week for prices.
There was a small decline in the overall corn condition last week, which started corn moving higher on Monday but this was only short term as the overall condition is above the 5 year average. There were a couple of private yield estimates this week that were below what the USDA had forecast but these only caused a short term bump in prices. The yield numbers from the Pro Farmer tour was actually higher than the USDA in some areas but overall it is still too early to know the final yield levels.
The weather for corn over the next few days is not too bad but there are still some areas that could use additional rain and some experts are saying that without some decent rain there could be a slide in the yield numbers. However, in quite a bit of the USA, the corn crop is close to being finished and it is more unlikely that changes in weather will affect the crop (except, of course, for hail or below freezing weather).
Once again, soybeans had a very strong week with new crop futures moving up about USD 25 m/t and soymeal up by USD 30+ m/t. The situation with soybeans is that, as it is a later crop than corn, it can still be affected greatly by the weather and with expected hot dry weather expected in some large soybean areas the feeling is that overall yield could be lower. The Pro Farmer tour has found that the soybean pod count is lower that what they expect to see for high yields but it is still very early to know for sure as soybeans are still flowering and setting pods.
There was also some comment from the trade this week that with soybeans running a little later than previous years there could be a risk of frost damage in September/October.
It looks like soybean/soymeal prices are going to be quite volatile for the next couple of weeks as everyone tries to determine exactly what the crop will be come harvest.
| USA crop condition Report 2013 Aug 12 | Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Excellent % |
| Corn | 4 | 9 | 26 | 44 | 17 |
| Last year | 26 | 25 | 26 | 20 | 3 |
| | | | | | |
| Soybeans | 2 | 8 | 28 | 48 | 14 |
| Last year | 16 | 21 | 32 | 27 | 4 |
| | | | | | |
| Sorghum | 3 | 10 | 32 | 45 | 10 |
| Last year | 23 | 28 | 26 | 18 | 5 |
| | | | | | |
FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 266/274 Sep/Nov |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 309/313 Sep/Nov |
| Wheat, milling Black Sea 11.5 pro – 30,000 m/t | USD 245/250 |
| Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD 249/251 |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 280/290 Dec/Jan new crop |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 233/237 |
| Wheat bran, Black Sea | USD 190/200 |
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 236/238 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 225/240 Dec/Jan new crop |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea | USD 242/248 |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 255/260 |
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 236>>220 Sep>>Nov |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 246>>238 Sep>>Nov |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 231/235 Sep/Oct |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 195>>185 Sep/Oct |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea – 30,000 m/t | USD 180/200 Sep>>new crop |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 227/229 new crop |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free | USD 238>>232 Sep>>Nov new crop |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free | USD asked 200/bid 185 Sep/Oct |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 545>>512 Sep>>Oct new crop |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 585>>545 Sep>>Oct new crop |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 545>>525 Spot>>Oct |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 506>>495 Sep>>Oct/Nov |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 550>>511 Spot>>Oct |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 495>>480 Sep>>Oct/Nov |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD no prices |
Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 670/675 m/t Sep |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 190/195 m/t Sep |
| DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 287/261 m/t Sep>>Nov |
| DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asian ports | USD 358>>328 m/t Sep>>Nov |
Prices for all corn by-products/co-products moved higher this week with the rally in old crop corn prices and the need for some export buyers to book nearby supplies. It seems that some buyers had waited so long for the prices to drop that they are running low and now have to buy, even with the old crop prices making by-products quite expensive for spot lots.
Once we get a good inflow of new crop corn and assuming that corn prices do not suddenly rally, then we should see lower prices into October. Looking at the current DDGS price levels, there is a spread of just over USD 25 m/t between old crop production and new crop and this is certainly a enough of a spread to make export buyers hold off for October shipment – except for small lots to cover short-term needs.
According to the US Grains Council report this week, farmers are not selling their new crop corn as yet, which makes it tough for ethanol/DDGS producers to be able to get their prices down to where the export buyers expectations are --- currently export bids are quite a bit lower than producers offers.
Sometime in the next few weeks, the new crop corn will be available everywhere in the USA and prices will slide lower – so it looks like a little longer for buying "hand to mouth".
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Paraguay Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein Paraguay Meat & Bone meal 48/50 protein | USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD not available |
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 520/530 m/t CNF Asia |
| Europe Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein Europe Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein | USD no prices USD no prices |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade | USD 620/630 mt CNF Asia USD 690/700 m/t CNF Asia USD 790/800 m/t CNF Asia USD 950/960 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/810 m/t CNF Asia USD 730/750 m/t CNF Asia USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia |
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 510/520 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 690/700 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 580/600 m/t |
Reports out of Asia have meat and bone meal prices up a little on the week, except in those markets that can use EU MBM where prices seem to be slipping lower. Australia and New Zealand seem to be a little short of animal proteins at present with much of the business going to USA product and South American, where allowed. Vietnam looks to be all EU material at present at prices much below other origins.
Both poultrymeal and feathermeal look to be a little lower in Asia this week and USA domestic prices on both were just a tad lower. Reports out of the USA say that feathermeal stocks are building and that there could be further pressure on prices.
If we continue to see strength in soymeal prices it is going to be very difficult to expect that animal proteins will move lower – expect for short-term excess supply situations.
For now the overall price trend should probably steady to higher prices for most animal proteins in the export market.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
There is still a little fishing being done in the south of Peru and the 400,000 m/t quota has finally crept over to 5 percent level – there is now about 190,000 m/t left on the quota until the end of August and the end is coming up quickly.
According to trade reports there are a couple of vessels out doing biomass studies and the expectation is that the new quota will be finalized by about mid-October with most people still thinking that 2 million m/t of catch will be the quota number.
Even with the fishmeal stocks on hand dropping every week, this week to about 70,000 m/t, there is still weakness in the prices. The highest quality grades were down by USD 30 to 40 m/t this week and some "experts" feel that this may be due to some producers expecting an earlier fishing quota with a higher catch limit – more catch sooner is certainly a good reason for prices to slide. On the other hand, fishmeal traders seem to feel that most major buyers are now well stocked with fishmeal and there will only be limited interest in the remaining stocks.
According to the latest export stats from Peru, China is still the main buyer taking 63 percent of exports with Germany and Japan taking another 18 percent in total and Chile and Turkey taking a total of 8 percent of the exports --- total seven month exports were at 351,000 m/t. Thanks to MSI Ceres Peru for the export statistics.
And then the prices, I had not expected them to continue lower but it looks like limited buying and some stocks are convincing producers to sell what they have before the next fishing season. Looks like a buyers market for now.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
| | |
| 65 protein standard steam | 1400/1410 m/t |
| 65/66 pro standard steam | 1420/1430 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1440/1450 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1470/1480 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1490/1500 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1510/1520 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1530/1540 m/t |
| | |
| Fish oil .. crude bulk | 2050/2100 |
| Fish oil – crude drums | 2200/2250 |
| Fish oil – flexitank | 2150/2200 |
| Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA | 2700/2800 |
| | |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon
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