Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 01, 2014
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
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SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
One would be very hard pressed to find a grain, oilseed, protein meal price that went down this week. Everything was higher: corn up about USD 10 m/t, soybeans up by USD 10 to 12 m/t, soymeal up by close to USD 40 m/t for 2014 shipments and USD 30 m/t for early 2015 shipments. Even wheat prices moved higher as everyone seemed to be wanting to buy in the same week.
Most experts say that the move higher for corn prices this week was mainly in sympathy with what was happening with soybeans but others were saying that harvest delays in some areas were pushing corn prices higher while some concerns (very limited) about the South American weather also added to the upward pressure. However, it looks like most experts agree that there is really little or no reason for corn prices to move higher at present – so a slide lower next week is possible.
While the US harvest is a little bit behind it will catch up very quickly and the overall crop is still going to be tremendous. For the future about the only thing that could push prices higher will be a troublesome weather situation in South America and perhaps extended bad weather in the USA that continues to delay the completion of the harvesting.
Experts feel that the prices today are about where the market should be and that we will be in a plus/minus USD 10 m/t range until something happens in Brazil/Argentina.
Soybeans/soymeal had a very strong week this week as prices continued the rally that began last week. The funny thing about this rally is that there seems to be little reason to be having a rally. The futures started to rally a couple of weeks ago as the people holding short positions started to cover their positions and take profits – covering shorts pushes prices higher. But once most of the serious short positions were covered then futures specs/funds decided to go long and this pushed prices even higher.
So, while we are looking at a huge soybean crop we are seeing higher prices and while this does make some sense for prompt shipments due to supply logistics it makes little or no sense longer term. Once the current logistics problems are overcome then export and domestic prices in the US should ease and start to become more reasonable.
With the soybean harvest getting close to being finished the next market adventures (other than logistics problems) will all be in South America.
USA crop condition report – October 26, 2014 – all in percentages
France crop condition as of October 30, 2014
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| Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good to excellent | Harvested % |
| USA crop: |
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| Corn | 2 | 5 | 19 | 74 | 56 |
| Soybeans |
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| 75 |
| Sorghum |
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| 63 |
| Spring Wheat |
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| 100 |
| Winter Wheat | 1 | 6 | 34 | 59 | Planted 85% |
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| French crop: | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good to excellent |
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| Corn | 0 | 1 | 9 | 89 | 57 |
| Wheat - soft |
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| Planted 77% |
| Wheat – hard |
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| Planted 18% |
| Barley - winter |
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| Planted 93% |
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
While Capesize vessels continue higher on Chinese ore demand with some spill over into Panamax vessels, there has been very little effect on grain ocean freight costs, except some to Asia. There seem to be an abundance of vessels available for grain cargos, especially at the US Gulf.
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $20.00 | Up $0.50 | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000 | $48/49.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax(10,000 disch) | $46/47.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax(8,000 disch) | $45/46.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t(10,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t(8,000 d1sch) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $49/50.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $39/40.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: coaster | $43/45.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $44/46.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Baltic Dry Index | 1428 | Up 236 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 3552 | Up 1130 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1233 | Up 112 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 892 | Down 8 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 467 | Down 22 | x |
*** see sources note
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 254/261 Oct/Dec | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 283/286 Oct/Dec | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 225/235 Oct/Dec | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 248/252 Oct/Dec | x |
| Wheat, Romania | USD 250/255 Oct/Dec | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen | USD 222/225 Oct/Dec | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen | USD 216/219 Oct/Dec | x |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 240/255 Dec/Jan 2015 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 185/200 Oct/Dec | x |
| Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD 170/180 Oct/Dec | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 206/209 Oct/Dec | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 192/202 Oct/Dec | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 210/215 Oct/Dec | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 270/275 Oct/Dec | X |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 195>>188 Oct>>Dec | X |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 211>>208 Oct>>Dec | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 178/183 Oct/Dec | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 176/181 Oct/Dec | X |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 180/188 Oct/Dec | X |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 190/192 Oct/Dec | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 177/180 Oct/Dec |
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| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 250>>242 Oct>>Dec | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 152/160 Oct/Dec | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 514>>495 Oct>>Dec | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD no prices | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 500/503 | x |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 452/458 Oct/Dec | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 495/500 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 444/453 Oct/Dec | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 620/630 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 431/442 Oct/Dec | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 410>>395 Oct>>Dec | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 465>>450 Oct>>Dec | X |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 474>>448 Oct>>Dec | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 400/415 Oct/Dec | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 690/700 m/t Oct/Dec | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 170/175 m/t Oct/Dec | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 194/197 m/t Oct/Dec | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 219/224 m/t Oct/Dec | x |
*** see sources note
All corn co-products/by-products are higher this week (for some reason I always call them by-products while everyone else says co-products. I should probably call them co-products as that is a much more positive term) as they follow the soymeal/corn effect on the market.
According to trade reports, there was very strong demand in the US for DDGS this week due to the rally in corn/soymeal and this helped to push price for DDGS up by USD 10 to 12 m/t. Corn gluten meal prices were not up as much as expected. With CGM being a high protein item, 60% protein, there was the expectation that the shortage of fishmeal would push demand up quickly but this does not seem to have happened as yet – but probably will.
Corn gluten feed was also up this week and a couple of people were saying that it is a protein play with CGF and its 18% protein suddenly looking attractive as a minor protein source. Certainly better than wheat bran where the protein is much lower.
Look like for now the market is all protein, protein, protein.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein | USD 460/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/640 m/t CNF Asia | X x |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia | x |
| European MBM 45 protein European MBM 50 protein European Feathermeal, 75 protein European poultry meal | USD 360/370 m/t CNF Asia USD 400/415 m/t CNF Asia USD 740/750 m/t CNF Asia USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia | X X X X |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 520/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 570/590 m/t CNF Asia USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia | X X X x |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 510/525 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 940/980 m/t CNF Asia | X X X x |
*** see sources note
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 420/430 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 690/720 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 520/550 m/t |
*** see sources note
Russia has extended their ban on EU items so that it now includes animal proteins and animal fats – Russia says that the ban is a matter of "safety procedures". Russia had been the destination for pork based animal proteins but these items are now looking for other markets, mainly in Asia.
Export sellers are looking for higher prices this week for animal proteins as soymeal prices continue to move higher. The export prices shown above seem to be a little out of date as there are stories of export offers for MBM at levels USD 50 to 60 m/t higher.
Experts feel that all animal protein export prices are going to have to move significantly higher due to the very high price for fishmeal and the strong rally in soymeal – animal protein prices have not kept up with the recent rally, but then they were probably a little overpriced for the past few weeks.
So, export prices should continue steady to higher in coming days – no real reason at present to look for lower prices.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
With the IFFO meeting in Vancouver this week there has been very little activity in fishmeal sales and exports – at least none that has shown up in the trade as yet.
The fishmeal prices seem to be showing very wide variations depending on who you talk to. The prices that are shown below may just have been panic prices for limited trades in Peru. However, all European prices have moved higher as the demand has shifted to other origins now that Peru is unable to supply. As can be seen by the prices below, both Peru and Chile are not competitive with European fishmeal supplies, which is a situation that we have seen off and on over the past couple of years.
The difficulty with European fishmeal supply is that it is not as large as what can be exported from Peru and Chile. If there is a sudden jump in demand from Asia for fishmeal then this should push European prices up quite quickly to – especially as their supply is quite finite.
So far the only news out of the Vancouver meeting are a couple of reports on speeches worrying about Peruvian fishmeal supply and the effect on world markets – repeats of what we have been saying for the past couple of weeks.
Perhaps more interesting news from Vancouver once everyone gets back home and reports start to surface.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,960 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,750 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,990 |
| Chile fishmeal | 65 protein | 2,040 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,930 |
@Commodity3
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
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| 65 protein | 1950/1960 m/t |
| 65/66 protein | 1960/1970 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1970/1980 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1980/1990 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1990/2000 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2030/2040 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 2080/2100 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1950/2000 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2150/2200 |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2100/2150 |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2600/2700 |
*** see sources note
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
*** sources for information for the Weekly Report:
US Grains Council --- www.grains.org, International Grains Council – www.igc.int
US Wheat -- www.uswheat.org , France Agrimer – www.franceagrimer.fr
EU DG Agri -- ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_fr.htm, Commodity 3 -- http://www.commodity3.com/
Newedge Group -- www.newedge.com, The Jacobsen Report -- https://www.thejacobsen.com
MSI Ceres Peru -- http://www.msiceres.com, International Brokers Group S.A.C, Peru.
And many, many, many more
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon
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