Weekly report Nov 22, 2104

Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   November 22, 2014

 

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Corn and soybean prices went off in opposite directions this week in both the cash and futures markets as corn prices were down a little on the week, USD 3 to 5 m/t lower, while soybeans were higher at the end of the week by about USD 5 to 7 m/t – soymeal too followed soybeans higher on the week and was up more on the cash side than in the futures, being up be USD 5 to 8 m/t in cash.

 

For soybeans, even though the weekly export sales were not as high as expected, the actual and expected demand still kept prices firm. With the USDA announcing new export sales of soybeans every week, no one is looking at a drop in demand or even much weakness in prices. However, these high US soybean prices will not last forever, as one day the South American bean crop will appear and prices are expected to slip lower – but it won't be this week.  

 

Corn prices had slipped a little lower early this week but a combination of bad weather for the small balance of the US harvest coupled with expected higher feed demand (due to the same bad weather – snow, snow and more snow) increased expected demand at the end of the week and got the futures market all excited – at least for a day or two. In the futures market there was a corn sell off very late in the day but this was due mainly to closing out December futures options positions and was not so much a corn market fundamental factor.

 

Most corn experts seem to feel that the cash/export prices will tend to move higher from here with the low price of the year now in the past. With 90%+ of the harvest completed and the farmer now worrying about storage and finance costs for this massive crop, the tendency should be for prices to move a little higher each month to cover the carrying charges on the crop – but this does not always work. In theory prices should move up a little each month after harvest but theory is rarely actuality.

 

One other point on corn, while futures may have been a little lower export prices remain quite firm as logistics from farm to export port are not quite as smooth and one would like and difficult logistics always increase export prices.  

 

 

USA crop condition report – November 10, 2014 – all in percentages

France crop condition as of November 20, 2014

 

	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good to excellent	Harvested %
USA crop:
Corn					90
Soybeans					94
Sorghum					90
Spring Wheat					100
Winter Wheat	1	5	34	60	Planted 99%
French crop:	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good to excellent
Corn	0	1	9	89	95
Wheat - soft			6	94	Planted 98%
Wheat – hard					Planted 85%
Barley - winter			7	93	Planted 100%

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$19.00	Down $0.50	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$29/30.00		x
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$31/32.00		x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$35/36.00		x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$32/33.00		x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$35/36.00		x
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$33/34.00		x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$49/50.00		x
US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000	$48/49.00		x
US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$37/38.00		x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax(10,000 disch)	$45/46.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf China: Panamax(8,000 disch)	$44/45.00	Down $1.00	x
US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t	$35/36.00	Down $1.00	x
US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t(10,000 disch)	$31/32.00	Up $1.00	x
US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t(8,000 d1sch)	$30/31.00	Up $1.00	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$36/37.00		x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$49/50.00		x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$24/25.00		x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$25/26.00		x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$30/31.00		x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$38/39.00		x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$25/26.00		x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$45/46.00		x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$35/36.00		x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$30/31.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$31/32.00		x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$32/33.00		x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$30/31.00		x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$33/34.00		x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$41.00		x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$29/30.00		x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$31/32.00		x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$38/39.00		x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$28/29.00		x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$34/35.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$24/25.00		x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$26/27.00		x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$41/42.00		x
Brazil to Europe	$26/27.00		x
Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$19/20.00		x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00		x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$20/21.00		x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$15/16.00		x
Black Sea to East Med: coaster	$45/46.00		x
Black Sea to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$46/47.00		x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$13/14.00		x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$24/25.00		x
Black Sea to China	$35/37.00		x
Baltic Dry Index	1324	Up 68	x
Baltic Capesize Index	3038	Up 107	x
Baltic Panamax Index	1055	Down 34	x
Baltic Supramax Index	942	Up 67	x
Baltic Handisize Index	462	Up 12	x

*** see sources note

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR NOV 2014/JAN 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 250/254	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 280/282	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 235/240	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 250/254	x
Wheat, Romania	USD 246/250	x
Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen	USD 225/228	x
Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen	USD 217/221	x
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 247/255	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 210/216	x
Wheat Bran, Black Sea	USD 185/195	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 208/213	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 195/201	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 210/215	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 235/240	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 196>>189	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 203>>200	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 185/189	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 195/199	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 175/180	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 188/192	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 180/185	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD  249>>241	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD  155/160	x
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 490/500	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 520/525	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 480/485	x
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 440/450	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 465/470	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 425/435	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB	USD 630/640	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 430/438	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 400>>395	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 445>>440	x
Soybeans, Rotterdam	USD 470>>450	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 400/415	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   725/735 m/t	X
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   172/175 m/t	X
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   200/204 m/t	X
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia	USD   250/254 m/t	x

*** see sources note

 

At long last, we seemed to have a calmer market for DDGS this week with prices quite steady or perhaps up a little from last week. USA DDGS producers are reporting that export business is good and that buyers are not quite as aggressive with their bids – the buyer/seller spread is much closer than it has been in a few weeks. DDGS export prices are still quite attractive versus corn/soymeal so export buyers are more willing to try to cover their needs into the first quarter of 2015.

 

With corn gluten meal, the prices remain steady but the market seems to want to move higher as export interest for CGM, as a replacement for much higher prices fishmeal, is building quickly. While the domestic US price for CGM may not increase too much it is expected that export prices should be strong as fishmeal buyers swing over to corn gluten meal. After all, CGM at USD 700/750 m/t seem to be quite a bargain compared to fishmeal at over USD 2000 m/t.

 

And good old corn gluten feed just chugs along, moving up and down with the price of corn. There never seem to be any big surprises or exciting weeks in the corn gluten feed business.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein	USD 460/480 m/t CNF Asia  USD 630/640 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia
European MBM 45 protein    European MBM 50 protein    European Feathermeal, 75 protein    European poultry meal	USD 360/370 m/t CNF Asia  USD 400/415 m/t CNF Asia  USD 740/750 m/t CNF Asia  USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia  USD 610/620 m/t CNF Asia  USD 850/860 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1050/1070 m/t CNF Asia	X X X x
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia  USD 820/840 m/t CNF Asia  USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1120/1170 m/t CNF Asia	X X X x

*** see sources note

 

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein	USD 455/465 m/t
Feathermeal  80 protein USA	USD 670/700 m/t
Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA	USD 500/520 m/t
Poultry meal, Pet Food grade, 64 pro	USD 770/800 m/t

*** see sources note

 

 

Thanks to some direct information from Australia this week the OZ prices are very accurate – something that is not always possible. Many thanks go to my OZ source.

 

Prices in Asia are up quite bit this week (except perhaps from the USA) for higher grade animal proteins as the fishmeal shortage increases demand for alternative proteins at a time when supply is not increasing. Asian buyers are probably going to have to pay higher prices in coming months unless there is a significant change in the Peru fishmeal situation.

 

In the USA there is little or no fishmeal effect on animal proteins, except for increased export demand, but as the US is not a major exporter (except to Indonesia) of animal proteins, the domestic market rarely reacts to any fishmeal situation – except perhaps for the pet food grade poultry meal which has taken a good jump higher in recent days. The pet food industry does use quite a bit of fishmeal which will now need to be replaced with poultry meal or corn gluten meal, at least as much as possible.

 

While domestic USA prices could move a little higher, the strength in prices should remain in the export market as buyers fight over protein supplies.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

We are all waiting, somewhat impatiently, to hear the results of the Peruvian governments exploratory fishing expedition – will it show good results or bad – will we have a fishing season or not? Ah the questions that come to mind.

 

MSI Ceres mentioned in their report this week that the local press had said that this could be the lowest year for fishing in 15 years. I guess that this has to happen every once in a while but it would be nice to have at least a little quota – assuming that the weather allow some fishing to be done.

 

According to trade reports, the fishmeal prices in China are at record levels and stocks on hand are shrinking – luckily it is not the high season for fishmeal consumption in China. The story out of China is that fishmeal users are buying up the stocks, even if it is not needed at present, in order to avoid shortages in coming months. They will buy and hold, just in case there is no supply in early 2015.

 

Most fishmeal experts are looking for higher prices if there is no Peru quota and this certainly makes sense, as demand for all other fishmeal (and other proteins) will certainly be very strong if Peru has no fishing.   

 

As to business in Peru, there is very little. According to the trade there may be 20 to 30,000 m/t of fishmeal still on hand and unsold in Peru but this could really be zero stock or may just be stock that no one wants to buy.

 

Time now for all fishmeal end-users to be fully covered with other fishmeal sources or protein alternatives – something that is not always easy to accomplish when supplies are short.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	2,135
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,805
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	2,105
Chile fishmeal	65 protein	2,160
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	2,200

@Commodity3

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port
65 protein	2080/2110 m/t
65/66 protein	2100/2130 m/t
67 protein standard steam	2150/2180 m/t
67 protein SD 150  TVN	2200/2210 m/t
67 protein SD 120 TVN	2350/2360 m/t
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	2380/2390 m/t
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	2400/2420 m/t
Fish oil, crude bulk	2500/2550
Fish oil, crude drums	2600/2650
Fish oil, flexi tank	2550/2600
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	3000/3100

*** see sources note

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

*** sources for information for the Weekly Report:

US Grains Council  --- www.grains.org, International Grains Council – www.igc.int

US Wheat -- www.uswheat.org , France Agrimer – www.franceagrimer.fr

EU DG Agri -- ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_fr.htm,  Commodity 3 -- http://www.commodity3.com/

Newedge Group -- www.newedge.com, The Jacobsen Report -- https://www.thejacobsen.com

MSI Ceres Peru -- http://www.msiceres.com, International Brokers Group S.A.C, Peru.

 

And many, many, many more

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon