Weekly Report -- Nov 15, 2014

Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   November 15, 2014

 

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SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

The WASDE report last week did come as a surprise, at least on the corn side of things, when the corn yields were actually reduced by the USDA when everyone thought that they would be increased - it was quite a surprise for the market. However, since the corn market had been up in price in advance of the report the bullish effect was quite weak. At the end of the week, corn prices remained up by USD 4 to 5 m/t in both domestic and export markets but certainly had not run a great deal higher.

 

A few of the trade reports at the end of the week said that corn prices would have been lower except for the strong rally in wheat futures that seemed to put everyone in a grain buying mood.

 

There is the concern in northern parts of the US that the snow and cold will delay the finishing off of the harvest and this could keep corn prices firm until all is harvested but experts seem to be a little divided on where prices could go in the short term. I expect that the most likely situation is steady to lower rather than higher.

 

On the soybean side of things, prices were lower for both soybeans and soymeal when we got to the end of the week. The experts say that USA farmers have been selling quite few soybeans in the past few days which is increasing available supply in the short term market.

 

The situation with soybeans/meal should be that, with the USA about the only current seller, prices for beans and meal should stay reasonably firm until there is some new stock coming out of South America. There is not much concern about the South American crop at present, except perhaps late planting in some areas, so nothing there that would push prices higher.

 

The major factor giving strength to the US prices, especially wheat, has been the very cold weather in the northern USA that may have caused some damage to winter wheat crops and, as we have all seen many times before, when one grain/oilseed starts to move higher it tends to pull all the other prices higher too. There is also the concern over the winter crops in the Ukraine and Russia, so it doesn't take too much concern to cause all prices to move higher – even corn and soybeans which are certainly not at all winter crops.

 

So, it will be interesting to see where prices go this coming week.

 

USA crop condition report – November 10, 2014 – all in percentages

France crop condition as of November 11, 2014

 

	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good to excellent	Harvested %
USA crop:
Corn					82
Soybeans					90
Sorghum					84
Spring Wheat					100
Winter Wheat	1	5	34	60	Planted 94%
French crop:	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good to excellent
Corn	0	1	9	89	90
Wheat - soft					Planted 96%
Wheat – hard					Planted 81%
Barley - winter					Planted 100%

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$19.50	Down $0.50	X
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$29/30.00		x
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$31/32.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$35/36.00		x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$32/33.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$35/36.00		x
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$33/34.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$49/50.00		x
US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000	$48/49.00		x
US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax(10,000 disch)	$46/47.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf China: Panamax(8,000 disch)	$45/46.00	Up $1.00	x
US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t	$36/37.00	Up $1.00	x
US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t(10,000 disch)	$30/31.00		x
US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t(8,000 d1sch)	$29/30.00		x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$36/37.00		x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$49/50.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$24/25.00		x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$25/26.00		x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$30/31.00		x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$38/39.00	Up $2.00	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$25/26.00		x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$45/46.00		x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$35/36.00		x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$29/30.00		x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$31/32.00		x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$32/33.00		x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$30/31.00		x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$33/34.00		x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$41.00		x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$29/30.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$31/32.00		x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$38/39.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$28/29.00		x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$33/34.00		x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$24/25.00		x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$26/27.00		x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$41/42.00		x
Brazil to Europe	$26/27.00	corrected	x
Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$19/20.00		X
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00		X
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$20/21.00		x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$15/16.00		x
Black Sea to East Med: coaster	$45/46.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$46/47.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$13/14.00		x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$24/25.00		x
Black Sea to China	$35/37.00		x
Baltic Dry Index	1256	Down 181	x
Baltic Capesize Index	2931	Down 730	x
Baltic Panamax Index	1089	Down 94	x
Baltic Supramax Index	875	Down   6	x
Baltic Handisize Index	450	Down   4	x

*** see sources note

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR NOV 2014/JAN 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 259/262	X
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 279/281	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 237/240	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 249/254	x
Wheat, Romania	USD 250/255	x
Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen	USD 228/230	x
Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen	USD 220/223	x
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 248/255	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 215/220	x
Wheat Bran, Black Sea	USD 190/200
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 213/216	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 195/205	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 210/215	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 240/245	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 199>>193	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 207>>204	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 188/192	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 194/198	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 172/177	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 180/194	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 182/185	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD  253>>245	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD  160/167	x
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 502/513	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD  no prices	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 495/504	x
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 457/475	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 497/505	X
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 448/470	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB	USD 640/650	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 440/447	X
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 405>>399	X
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 455>>448	x
Soybeans, Rotterdam	USD 480>>450	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 400/415	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   715/725 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   174/178 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   200/205 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia	USD   249/254 m/t	x

*** see sources note

 

There were a great many stories this week about China and the DDGS situation and any idea that China will allow full import of DDGS is enough to push prices up by USD 10 m/t or so, as had happened this week.

 

It has been noted in the trade press in the USA that there is a very wide spread of prices between DDGS producers as some are carrying very heavy stocks --- some say that there is easily a USD 10 m/t range in DDGS prices among producers, so shopping around for supply would seem to be a good idea.

 

Corn gluten meal prices were a little higher this week, some of which was due to the high fishmeal prices but it is understood that some logistics problems are pushing up export prices as export slots for all by-products are getting difficult to find with many container exporters all booked up well into early 2015 and bulk exports have to fight the logistics and loading problems in the Mississippi and in NOLA that have been brought on by harvest export programs.

 

For now it looks like prices will stay steady to higher until there is a change in China's imports or some weakness in corn and soybeans.

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein	USD 460/480 m/t CNF Asia  USD 630/640 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia
European MBM 45 protein    European MBM 50 protein    European Feathermeal, 75 protein    European poultry meal	USD 360/370 m/t CNF Asia  USD 400/415 m/t CNF Asia  USD 740/750 m/t CNF Asia  USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 515/525 m/t CNF Asia  USD 570/590 m/t CNF Asia  USD 745/760 m/t CNF Asia  USD 950/970 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 545/555 m/t CNF Asia  USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia  USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1100/1150 m/t CNF Asia

*** see sources note

 

 

 

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein	USD 440/450 m/t
Feathermeal  80 protein USA	USD 670/700 m/t
Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA	USD 500/520 m/t

*** see sources note

 

Meat and bone meal prices were higher this week in most export markets even with soymeal a little lower on the week. Demand in Asia for most proteins is very good at present and, with the shortage of fishmeal, buyers are looking at all other possible alternatives for their feed use.

 

Domestic prices in the US were a little more difficult to follow as some areas reported higher prices while other were a little lower. Overall the domestic prices for all animal proteins seem to want to go higher rather than lower but much of the price direction is going to depend on what happens to soymeal in the coming weeks. At present soymeal looks to stay quite strong for the next couple of months as very good demand eats up supply and animal proteins just follow along.

 

Items like pet food grade poultry meal are always strong due to always steady demand but some experts feel that there could be a little room for feed grade poultry meal to drift lower as it seems to be a little overpriced versus other protein alternatives.

 

However, overall it is very difficult to see much room for prices to move lower for any animal protein in the short term.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Nothing at all has improved with the fishing situation in Peru – there is certainly going to be no chance of fishing in November as the month will be over before any definitive bio-mass information is available. The word at present is that the level of juvenile fish is running very, very high. There seems to be more and more agreement in the trade that there may be no fishing until April/May of 2015.

 

The prices for fishmeal have moved much higher from all origins – even some smaller producers in Africa have moved their prices up by USD 400+ m/t as they try to capture whatever interest is there but at sky high price levels. A few weeks ago some African origin fishmeal could not be sold at any price but now is getting very good interest at prices around USD 2,000 m/t.

 

The next few weeks will be very interesting – at least until some final word is issued on fishing in Peru and if there is not going to be a Dec/Jan quota then we are in for very strong prices into April/May of 2015 – very strong prices from all origins.

 

I had a heated discussion with a fishmeal user this week – he felt that Peruvian producers were making a fortune with today's high prices but, as I pointed out to him, if you have nothing left to sell then you don't make anything at all.

 

So, be prepared for firm prices and limited supply for fishmeal and higher prices for all protein items that can be substituted for fishmeal.

 

  

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	2,160
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,815
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	2,120
Chile fishmeal	65 protein	2,170
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	2,070

@Commodity3

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port
65 protein	2060/2070 m/t
65/66 protein	2070/2080 m/t
67 protein standard steam	2080/2090 m/t
67 protein SD 150  TVN	2200/2210 m/t
67 protein SD 120 TVN	2300/2310 m/t
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	2370/2380 m/t
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	2400/2420 m/t
Fish oil, crude bulk	2300/2350
Fish oil, crude drums	2500/2550
Fish oil, flexi tank	2450/2500
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	3000/3100

*** see sources note

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

*** sources for information for the Weekly Report:

US Grains Council  --- www.grains.org, International Grains Council – www.igc.int

US Wheat -- www.uswheat.org , France Agrimer – www.franceagrimer.fr

EU DG Agri -- ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_fr.htm,  Commodity 3 -- http://www.commodity3.com/

Newedge Group -- www.newedge.com, The Jacobsen Report -- https://www.thejacobsen.com

MSI Ceres Peru -- http://www.msiceres.com, International Brokers Group S.A.C, Peru.

 

And many, many, many more

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon