Weekly Report -- April 18, 2015

 

 

Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   April 18, 2015

 

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Almost every report on grains and oilseeds seems to be forecasting high price volatility over the coming weeks and based on the past that is exactly what should be happening. For the next months, USA weather and planting and growing will push and pull on the markets and price changes will probably be hard to follow – or to understand.

 

The US plantings are behind where they were last year but this will catch up quickly, as it always seems to. And, on the price side, corn had quite a boring week with only the rumor of some poor weather in the Eastern US being able to keep the corn futures market from slipping a little lower. As it was futures were up about USD 1 m/t on the week while the cash prices for corn was steady in most markets.

 

The latest weather forecasts in the US seems to show the current rainfall letting up so that the farmers can get back to planting their corn crops.

 

Soybeans and soymeal both had an up week in the futures market – the first up week in a while. The rally seemed to be due to possible planting delays in parts of the US and some excitement regarding political unrest in Brazil that might delay some soybean shipments or might not.

 

On futures, the commodity funds are very short soybeans which certainly means that they are hoping for lower soybean prices. However, as funds are fickle, any decent rally would probably get them covering their shorts and push the market higher – but there is no current sign of this happening.

 

Reading the trade reports at the end of the week it is next to impossible to find anyone who is outright bullish prices. Everyone just says to expect lots of price volatility….so be careful in buying your supply needs.  

 

 

USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – April 12, 2015

 

	Planted April 12 2015	Planted 2010-2014 Average
Corn	3%	5%
Sorghum	19%	20%
Spring Wheat	5%	11%
Barley	15%	15%

@USDA

 

France AgriMer – crop condition report – April 13, 2015

 

Winter crops	Very Good %	Good %	Average %	Bad %	Very Bad %
Soft wheat	34	58	8	1
Hard wheat	16	72	12	0
Barley	34	57	8	1
Spring crops	Planted April 13 2015	Planted April 13 2014
Barley	100%	100%
Corn	27%	35%

@France AgriMer

  

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

Price changes are versus last report which was issued on the 5^th of April

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$13/14.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$25/26.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$43/44.00	Steady	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$24/25.00	Steady	x
US Gulf China: Panamax	$26/27.00	Steady	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$18/19.00	Up $1.00	x
US PNW China: Panamax	$18/19.00	Up $1.00	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$39/40.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$49/50.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$19/20.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$34/35.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$32/33.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$47/48.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$30/31.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t	$33/34.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$29/30.00	Up $2.00	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$34/35.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$30/31.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Europe	$20/21.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$29/30.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Up $1.00	x
Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t	$8/8.50	New	X
Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t	$8.50/9.00	New	X
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t	$12/13.00	New	x
Ukraine to China	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$11/12.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster	$37/38.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$8/9.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t	$30/31.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t	$12/13.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$16/17.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Steady	x
Baltic Dry Index	597	Up 9	x
Baltic Capesize Index	532	Up 78	x
Baltic Panamax Index	642	Up 53	x
Baltic Supramax Index	619	Down 17	x
Baltic Handisize Index	358	Down 28	x
Bunkerworld fuel index	838	Up 52	x

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR MARCH 2015/MAY 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 213>>209	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 233/237	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 197/203 new crop	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 195/202 est. new crop	x
Wheat, Romania	USD 202/208 new crop	x
Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen	USD 196/200	x
Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen	USD 194/198	x
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 225/233	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 180/185 new crop	x
Wheat Bran, Black Sea	USD no prices	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 197/200	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 182/188	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 177/183 new crop	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 240/245	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 180>>177	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 185/188	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 175/180	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 172/178	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 168/172	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 170/176	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 167/170	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 271>>>249	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 163/167	x
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 435/445	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 535/545	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 390/397	x
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 360/365	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 410/415	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 360/365	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB	USD 660/670	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 405/410	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 365/370	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 380/385	x
Soybeans, Rotterdam	USD 410/415	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 380/385	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   690/700 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   150/155 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   254/260 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia	USD   331/337 m/t	x

 

 

DDGS showed a little weakness early on last week, as everyone thought that corn prices were going to move much lower – but they didn't. So, the lower prices on Monday turned into steady to slightly higher prices as the week moved on. There are still many buyers looking for DDGS but they seem to want to buy at USD 10 m/t under the current market and it doesn't look like that is going to happen as corn prices are just not all that weak and any weather story or market rumor will certainly tend to move corn prices higher.

 

Corn gluten meal prices seem to have leveled off, after a period of steadily lower prices, and there doesn't look to be too much room for lower prices in the short-term. As has been pointed out here before, CGM tends to do what it wants on pricing as it is not just corn price related but also ties to all the various protein alternatives – at 60% protein and a delicious yellow color, CGM has other value factors that can keep its price higher than what one might expect.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein	USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia  USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia  USD 990/1020 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia  USD 720/730 m/t CNF Asia  USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia  USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia

 

According to trade reports this week, the MBM market in Asia showed a great deal of price variability with some business reported at levels quite a bit below where the market seemed to be. MBM prices for USA 50 pro were said to have been seen as low as USD 500 CNF, but this seems to be the exception with most prices closer to the USD 515/520 m/t level. Prices for OZ and NZ MBM were steady to a little higher as tight supplies limited any price weakness.

 

Good export volume was reported for US feathermeal as export prices were very competitive. The US poultry meal price was also quite attractive but sales were not too exciting as avian flu is limiting export demand.

 

The feeling in the trade is that MBM prices are going to move lower as the MBM versus soymeal ratio is out of whack and needs either soymeal to move higher – unlikely – or MBM to drop lower – most likely.  

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Almost everyone important in the fishmeal business was in Miami for the IFFO meetings this week. According to comments at the end of the event there were lots discussions about new business but very little actual business being done. However, one of these days, all the big buyers will suddenly appear in the market and things will go wild for a few days. As was pointed out by MSI Ceres in their report this week - the buyers are all about ready to buy and the sellers are there to sell…so lets the action begin.

 

In Peru, there was some good fishing this week with the daily catch ranging from a low of 50,000 m/t up to about 72,000 m/t. So far, the reported catch in the Northern Region is at 440,000 m/t against the new quota of 2.58 million m/t.

 

Not much reported in the trade for new sales but the fishmeal stocks on hand are building and said to be getting close to 60,000 m/t but is probably higher. Of course, if fishing continues at the current level, barring short term fishing bans, then stocks will build very quickly --- perhaps as much as 70,000 m/t of fishmeal per week.  

 

It will be very interesting to see what happens to fishmeal prices in coming days as inventories build and buyer sit back and wait for sellers to crack under the burden of heavy stocks. One would probably be able to expect lower prices in days to come.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	1,625
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,550
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	1,900
Chile fishmeal	65 protein	1,950
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	1,580

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65 protein	1650/1670 m/t
65/66 protein	1700/1720 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1800/1820 m/t	1800/1850
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1850/1870 m/t	1850/1880
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1970/1990 m/t	1960/1990
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1980/2000 m/t	1980/2030
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	2000/2020 m/t	2000/2050
Fish oil, crude bulk	2500/2550	No price
Fish oil, crude drums	2600/2650
Fish oil, flexi tank	2550/2600
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2900/3000

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon