Weekly Report -- April 25, 2015

 

Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   April 25, 2015

 

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

There was not much chance for any grain/oilseed prices to move higher this week as all the crop factors looked quite good: good weather, fast planting and along with less than exciting export sales there seemed to be no reason for any increase in prices.

 

Corn was the weakest of the grains as it dropped about USD 7 m/t on the futures market and about the same on the cash side. According to some reports, commodity investment funds were quite long on corn futures as they expected a rally and when there was no rally they covered some of their long positions which helped to push corn prices lower. The weather too looked good for the US farmers and planting should be racing ahead and although corn planting is behind the five year average it is ahead of last year. We now see corn prices at their lowest level in about 6 months.

 

One problem facing corn is the further outbreaks of avian flu and the effect that will have on poultry flocks and corn consumption. It is reported that millions of birds have been destroyed to try to control recent avian flu outbreaks.

 

With good weather for the next 10 days or so and farmers out in the fields, there seems to be little reason to expect higher corn prices in the next while.

 

Soybeans and soymeal were both down a little on the week, but not much – as with corn, the weather was great for planting but avian flu concerns were a worry for soymeal consumption and the Brazil truck strike situation seems to be less serious than expected --- all factors that will push prices lower or at least cut off any rallies.

 

With soybean plantings having just started, we will have to see how things progress but, at present, all looks good for getting the US soybean crop in the ground.

 

As with corn, other than possible Brazil strikes, there does not seem to be much reason to expect higher prices in the short term.

   

 

USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – April 20, 2015

 

	Planted April 20 2015	Planted 2010-2014 Average
Corn	9%	13%
Sorghum	19%	22%
Spring Wheat	36%	19%
Barley	43%	24%

@USDA

 

 

 

 

France AgriMer – crop condition report – April 20, 2015

 

Winter crops		Very Good %	Good %	Average %	Bad %	Very Bad %
Soft wheat	33		58	9	1
Hard wheat	18		70	12	0
Barley	33		57	9	1
Barley spring	22		75	3
Spring crops	Planted April 20 2015		Planted April 20 2014
Barley	100%		100%
Corn	57%		57%

@France AgriMer

  

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

Price changes are versus last report which was issued on the 5^th of April

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$13/14.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$25/26.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$26/27.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$45/46.00	Up $2.00	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$29/30.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$25/26.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf China: Panamax	$27/28.00	Up $1.00	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$19/20.00	Up $1.00	x
US PNW China: Panamax	$19/20.00	Up $1.00	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$39/40.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$49/50.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$35/36.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$33/34.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$48/49.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$29/30.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$29/30.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t	$32/33.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Down $2.00	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$34/35.00	Steady	x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$30/31.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Europe	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$29/30.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Steady	x
Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t	$8/8.50	Steady	x
Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t	$8.50/9.00	Steady	x
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t	$12/13.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to China	$24/25.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$12/13.00	Up $1.00	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster	$37/38.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$9/10.00	Up $1.00	x
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t	$31/32.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t	$12/13.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$17/18.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Up $2.00	x
Baltic Dry Index	600	Up 3	x
Baltic Capesize Index	545	Up 13	x
Baltic Panamax Index	685	Up 43	x
Baltic Supramax Index	624	Up 5	x
Baltic Handisize Index	348	Down 10	x
Bunkerworld fuel index	853	Up 15	x

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR MARCH 2015/MAY 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 210>>204	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 229/233	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 202/206 new crop	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 203/207 est. new crop	x
Wheat, Romania	USD 200/204 new crop	x
Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen	USD 197/200	x
Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen	USD 194/197	x
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 223/230 spot	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 179/183 new crop	x
Wheat Bran, Black Sea	USD no prices
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 196/199	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 180/185	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 176/182 new crop	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 240/245	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 175>>170	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 181/184	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 172/177	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 171/176	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 170/175	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 169/175	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 169/174	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 265>>>243	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 160/165	x
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 415/425	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 530/540	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 395/400	x
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 360/365	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 410/415	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 355/360	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB	USD 665/675	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 405/410	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 365/370	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 380/385	x
Soybeans, Rotterdam	USD 410/415	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 380/385	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   685/690 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   145/150 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   255>>248 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia	USD   312/315 m/t	x

 

DDGS local and export prices were down this week – the internal US market was off by at least USD 5 m/t and container freight rates are weakening for May-July, so buyers in Asia have seen CNF prices slip by close to USD 20 m/t. Following the DDGS market forward we see that prices are expected to drop further in coming weeks – at least US export port prices.

 

Domestic US corn gluten meal prices were down by about USD 5 m/t on the week, which was reflected in the export market too. Export demand for CGM is still quite strong but some exporters report difficulty in sourcing supply out a few weeks so the lower prices may not last if export supply tightens.  

 

Corn gluten feed prices seemed to be lower everywhere on the week with sellers reporting prices down by USD 5 to 10 m/t. Of course with corn prices off by about USD 7 m/t this does put pressure on all corn by-product prices.

 

If corn continues lower we should see further price weakness in corn by-products.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein	USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia  USD 670/680 m/t CNF Asia  USD 950/970 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia  USD 700/710 m/t CNF Asia  USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia  USD 850/870 m/t CNF Asia

 

Animal protein export prices from the US are lower this week, especially for poultry meal and feathermeal as demand has disappeared while supply is still quite strong. Interestingly the demand for OZ poultry meal is good and their export prices are a little higher. Of course, the US is facing avian flu in several spots and this is limiting the export buying for poultry meal and feathermeal. Also, with soymeal prices into Asia being weak this tend to pull animal protein prices lower – these days buyers are very adept at switching between protein sources as prices change.

 

Price forecasts are looking toward lower animal protein prices as we progress through May and June.

    

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Fishing in Peru is coming along quite nicely with the catch last week being in excess of 50,000 m/t every day. Up to the 23^rd the total catch is 1.07 million m/t which leaves 1.53 million m/t still to land. In the south the fishing has been minimal with only 21,000 m/t landed against the 375,000 m/t quota.

 

The catch in Peru could have been higher except for a few mini-bans that slowed things down a little. The question that everyone seems to be asking now is if the entire northern quota will actually be caught in the time left. The quota does run until July 31^st so it is probably a little early to worry about not hitting the quota – we will worry more late in June. The government feels that all the quota will be landed before the end of May.

 

MSI Ceres was mentioning in their report this week that buyers prices ideas seem to be about USD 200 m/t below where producers want to sell but with China needing fishmeal and Peru producers stocks growing there is soon going to be some market activity --- but who will win: buyers or sellers?

 

According to trade estimates there is about 150,000 m/t of fishmeal now in stock in Peru and not too many outstanding orders as yet. How long can the producers hold out with high prices or how soon will China actually need new supplies.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	1,625
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,560
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	1,800
Chile fishmeal	65 protein	1,850
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	1,630

 

 

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65 protein	1650/1670 m/t
65/66 protein	1700/1720 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1800/1820 m/t	1800/1850
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1850/1870 m/t	1850/1880
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1970/1990 m/t	1960/1990
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1980/2000 m/t	1980/2030
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	2000/2020 m/t	2000/2050
Fish oil, crude bulk	2500/2550	No price
Fish oil, crude drums	2600/2650
Fish oil, flexi tank	2550/2600
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2900/3000

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon