Weekly Report - April 05, 2015

 

Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   April 05, 2015

 

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

This week's USDA report didn't have too much of an effect on market prices by the end of the week. Yes there was a sudden reaction to the report in the futures market but by the time we got to late Thursday (with US market closed on Friday) there was little reaction left in prices. Of course, perhaps one can say that with the short week due to Easter holidays and only 2 and a bit days trading after the report that there could be more reaction next week once everyone is hard at work again.

 

For corn, both stocks and planting intentions were higher than what the market had expected which pushed prices lower but that didn't last as there seemed to be lots of folks looking to buy some corn when the market dropped a little. Plus there are some early spring weather worries that may have helped the corn futures move back up a little. At the end of the week the corn was down by less than USD 2 m/t and there seemed to be little or no effect on the cash side of the market.

 

With soybeans, it looked like the futures market couldn't decide whether the report was good or bad for beans as prices have been up and down quite strongly since the report and soybean futures finished the week up by about USD 7 m/t. By late on Thursday people were saying that the report effect was over and now the weather was the main factor. Soybean plantings have been delayed in the Southern USA – not too serious a delay as yet but if it gets serious prices will move higher.

 

Not much more to say on a short work week after a major report but the game has now changed. Not too much more report reaction now much of what we will see is weather reaction as US farmers get out in the fields and start planting their spring crops.      

 

 

France AgriMer – crop condition report – April 03, 2015

 

Winter crops	Very Good %	Good %	Average %	Bad %	Very Bad %
Soft wheat	33	58	8	1
Hard wheat	16	73	11	0
Barley	33	58	8	1
Spring crops	Planted April 03 2015	Planted April 03 2014
Barley	100%	100%
Corn	00	1%

@France AgriMer

  

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$13/14.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$26/27.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$27/28.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$43/44.00	Steady	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$24/25.00	Steady	x
US Gulf China: Panamax	$26/27.00	Steady	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$17/18.00	Steady	x
US PNW China: Panamax	$17/18.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$39/40.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$49/50.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$33/34.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$31/32.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$46/47.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$29/30.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$31/32.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t	$34/35.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$33/34.00	Steady	x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$29/30.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Europe	$19/20.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$29/30.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to China	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$11/12.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster	$37/38.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$8/9.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t	$30/31.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$19/20.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t	$11/12.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$16/17.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Steady	x
Baltic Dry Index	588	Down 8	x
Baltic Capesize Index	454	Down 2	x
Baltic Panamax Index	589	Down 8	x
Baltic Supramax Index	636	Down 11	x
Baltic Handisize Index	386	Down 4	x
Bunkerworld fuel index	786	Down 20	x

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR MARCH 2015/MAY 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 236>>228	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 260/263	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 205/210	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 193/202 est.	x
Wheat, Romania	USD 204/212	x
Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen	USD 207/210	x
Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen	USD 204/207	x
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 228/235	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 185/190 old crop	x
Wheat Bran, Black Sea	USD no prices	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 203/205	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 180/185	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 190/195 old crop	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 260/265	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 180>>177	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 191/193	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 173/175	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 175/178	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 173/177	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 169/179	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 165/170	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 274>>>260	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 168/172	x
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 435/455	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 535/555	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 400/405	x
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 370/375	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 420/425	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 365/370	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB	USD 660/670	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 410/415	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 375/380	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 380/385	x
Soybeans, Rotterdam	USD 410/415	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 380/385	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   705/715 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   152/158 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   267/270 m/t	X
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia	USD   336/339 m/t	x

 

There was not much of a change in prices this week for any corn co-product as the weakness in corn prices seen after the USDA report quickly disappeared and corn ended up down only USD 1.50 m/t on the week – not enough to have a serious effect on co-product prices. The USGC report this week was saying that export buyers were having to pay as much as USD 5 m/t for DDGS out a few weeks as producers  don't want to take too much market risk in a period of normally very high price volatility.

 

The USDA Co-Products Production report this week shows DDGS production levels to be down by about 11% from last month but done 14% from December. Corn gluten meal production was down by 11% while corn gluten feed production was down 12%. The report also showed that corn gluten feed production is about 50% wet/50% dry production and as only the dry can easily be exported it does reduce what is available. For the last period reported – February 2015 – production is as follows: corn gluten meal 73,500 m/t, corn gluten feed – dry – 258,000 m/t, DDGS 1,500,000 m/t.

 

USA corn co-products exports – January/February 2015 – in m/t – major destinations

 

	Corn Gluten Meal	Corn Gluten Feed	Distillers Dried Grains DDGS
Canada	11,000	6,300	95,300
Chile	7,000
China			442,100
Colombia	21,600		30,100
Costa Rica			10,800
Egypt	24,600
Indonesia	29,900		35,400
Ireland		31,300	61,100
Japan			61,300
Malaysia	2,800
Mexico	6,600	2,500	356,000
Morocco		11,500	19,400
Peru	4,000
Philippines			18,500
South Korea			58,100
Spain			12,000
Taiwan	4,000		39,700
Thailand	6,000		77,800
Turkey			28,900
Vietnam	2,900		90,400

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein	USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia  USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia  USD 990/1020 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia  USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia  USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia  USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein	USD 425/435 m/t
Feathermeal  80 protein USA	USD 520/540 m/t
Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA	USD 510/530 m/t
Poultry meal, Pet Food grade, 64 pro	USD 660/680 m/t

 

Seems that every week there is a new report of avian flu somewhere in the US or Canada which is not helping the export sales of poultry meal. While there was a little uptick in prices for poultry meal last week it just turned around and weakened again this week. On the other hand, with China now about to allow US poultry products one could suggest that poultry meal export demand may increase which would stop the fall in prices.

 

Asian prices for meat and bone meal seemed to be up a little this week – probably moved higher by a both increased demand from China and limited supplies in New Zealand and Australia.

 

In the US domestic market, the word is that we will be having a short term rally in MBM prices due to a little tighter supplies and the soymeal/MBM ratio favoring MBM, at least for now. Most experts feel that any animal protein rally will be very short lived as supplies improve or soymeal weakens or Peru fishmeal comes to market – all are bearish for animal protein prices.

 

  USA corn animal protein exports – January/February 2015 – in m/t – major destinations

 

	Meat and Bone Meal Includes port and poultry meal	Feathermeal
Indonesia	12,500	8,000
Canada	8,200
China	1,700
Chile		3,600
Mexico	1,900
Philippines	3,100
Vietnam	3,000
Bangladesh	1,700
Ecuador	1,300
Holland	1,300
Thailand	1,100

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Exploratory fishing started in the North of Peru this week and will finish on the 6^th. Early reports say that all looks very good with very few juvenile fish landed. Full scale fishing in the north is expected to begin by about April 10^th.

 

The fishing so far in the southern region has not been all the great as the catch has been very low while the undersized fish level has been very high. According to catch reports, only about 18,000 m/t has been caught against the 375,000 m/t quota – this yields just over 4,200 m/t of fishmeal.

 

New season buying interest in Peru has not done much so far with only about 35,000 m/t of business said to be booked. Of course, if china was to enter the market, as they will, this number will increase considerably. Everyone is just waiting to see when China will get back into the Peru market.

 

Buyers are probably all waiting to see how the fishing starts off, what the quota will be and how far down the prices will/may drop.

 

Most of South America is closed for Easter holidays – closed for 4 days – so detailed news is a little hard to find. But we will see on Tuesday how the exploratory fishing in the North has been progressing.

 

Reports out of Peru and from the IFFO (the fishmeal and oil industry association) seem to point to the possible presence of an El Nino event that is affecting water temperatures in the Pacific and may have some effect on fishing in Peru and Chile – this is not a major El Nino event just a "coastal" event.

 

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	1,620
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,560
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	1,900
Chile fishmeal	65 protein	1,960
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	1,570

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65 protein	1650/1670 m/t
65/66 protein	1700/1720 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1800/1820 m/t	1800/1850
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1850/1870 m/t	1850/1880
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1970/1990 m/t	1960/1990
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1980/2000 m/t	1980/2030
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	2000/2020 m/t	2000/2050
Fish oil, crude bulk	2500/2550	No price
Fish oil, crude drums	2600/2650
Fish oil, flexi tank	2550/2600
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2900/3000

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon