Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT August 01, 2015
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
The recent trend to lower prices continued this week as most every price moved a little lower in both cash markets and futures. The US weather for most of the country looks just fine for the crops, so farmers are smiling a lot as they watch their crops growing.
There are more comments in trade reports this week that prices may have moved too low to quickly and that if there is anything bullish in the USDA report in the 12th then we could have a decent rally in prices. A number of experts are saying that the low prices seen these days are really buying opportunities and that these opportunities may not last too long.
Corn prices were down by USD 8 to 10 m/t on the week and at these levels are certainly quite attractive price levels for buyers. However, importers of corn don't find US corn to be the lowest priced in the market with Ukraine corn and Brazil corn being extremely competitive into some markets the US corn is having to fight for every bit of business. The word in the trade is that these days almost as buyers are buying "optional origin" corn so that they can benefit from the lowest price no matter what the origin is.
On the soybean side of things, old crop soybeans were down just a little as demand is good but supply is limited while new crop soybeans dropped by about USD 9 or 10 m/t on the week. The reported cancellation of soybean orders by China upset the market a little – after all China is the destination for the majority of US soybean exports and cancellations worry people.
As with corn, the weather is great for growing beans and no one can seem to come up with a good reason for prices to move higher. It will be interesting to see what the USDA report has to say in a few days – perhaps a surprise or two or perhaps note.
There will probably be a good deal of market activity over the next week or so as we get closer to the USDA report – buyers and experts are all trying to determine in advance what the report will say so prices could jump around quite bit.
USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – July 28, 2015
| Crop condition | Excellent % | Good % | Fair % | Poor % | Very Poor % | |
| Spring wheat | 15 | 56 | 22 | 6 | 1 | |
| Barley | 18 | 51 | 25 | 5 | 1 | |
| Corn | 17 | 53 | 21 | 7 | 2 | |
| Sorghum | 11 | 56 | 26 | 4 | 3 | |
| Soybeans | 13 | 49 | 27 | 8 | 3 | |
@USDA
France AgriMer – crop condition report – July 28, 2015
| Winter crops | Very Good % | Good % | Average % | Bad % | Very Bad % | |
| Wheat | 21 | 56 | 18 | 5 | 1 | |
| Durum | 21 | 57 | 16 | 5 | 1 | |
| Barley | 30 | 56 | 11 | 2 |
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| Barley spring | 8 | 56 | 26 | 8 | 2 | |
| Corn | 8 | 51 | 24 | 12 | 4 | |
@France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $17/17.50 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $53/54.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $54/55.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $39/40.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $36/37.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t | $9.00/9.50 | Down $0.50 | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t | $9.50/10.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1131 | Up 45 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1896 | Up 313 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1023 | Down 114 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 899 | No change | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 423 | Down 5 | x |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 729 | Down 31 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2015/October 2015
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 204/219 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 221/234 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 182/187 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190/195 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 191/195 | x |
| Wheat, A2, France, Rouen | USD 191/193 | x |
| Wheat, A3, France, Rouen | USD 188/190 | x |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 217/225 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 175/179 | x |
| Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD no prices |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 185/187 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 162/171 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 180/185 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 215/220 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 169/174 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 180/184 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 157/163 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 149/155 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 188/192 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 195/198 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 192/196 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 249>>219 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 155/162 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 381/387 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 420/426 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 405/410 | x |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 356/363 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 392/400 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 348/355 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ | USD 570/580 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 388/396 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 365/372 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 374/380 | x |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD no prices | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 385/390 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 685/690 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 158/162 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 214/219 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 273/278 m/t | X |
Corn prices were lower again this week which resulted in export buyers lowering their price ideas for DDGS, corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed. Everyone seemed to be looking quite a bit below the current market prices.
The upcoming USDA reports on the 12 of August could have a major effect on prices and export buyers are of the mind that US crop yields will be very good and that we could have mountains of corn thus lower prices for corn by-products.
The US Grains Council report this week was saying that the next few days up to the USDA report should be very interesting as export buyers try to outguess the report to determine what to purchase for later in the year. Bullish buyers will be into the market next week while the bearish buyers will sit and wait to see what the report has to say and hope for lower prices.
The weekly market reports in the US didn't show any significant drop in domestic prices for the week for corn by-products as DDGS, CGM and CGF seemed to trade in a narrow price range with a little up and a little down, ending about at the same price level at the end of the week as the previous week.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein | USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 510/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 495/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 610/630 m/t CNF Asia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia |
Reports in the meat and bone meal export market this week seem to point to higher prices in coming weeks, which is good news for exporters are MBM prices have been quite soft in some markets for a few weeks now. According to at least one trade newsletter the prices in Asia may be up by USD 30 to 40 m/t due to limited supply of 50 pro out of Australia and New Zealand. However, for the low end markets like Vietnam and Bangladesh, there has not been any rally in prices so far.
USA export prices are a little higher this week but the trend now does seem to be to higher levels over the next few weeks. Soft soymeal prices will probably stop prices from moving too much higher but the pressure does seem to be for higher levels.
In the US domestic market, there was a little weakness in MBM prices but feathermeal was up and poultry meal showed some strength.
The longer term question on prices really depends a great deal on what happens with soymeal and if the current concerns with China get any stronger we could see some further weakness in soybeans and soymeal that will pull animal protein prices down.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Not too much to report on the Peruvian situation this week as most of the country is off on holidays and not thinking at all about fishmeal.
It looks like the Northern fishing in Peru will end up about 80,000 m/t short of the 2.58 million m/t quota but no one is complaining. When the final figures are released by the government we could be closer to the quota number as the weekly estimates by the trade could be off a little.
In the south the catch is up to 261,000 m/t against a quota of 375,000 m/t with the season ended on July 31 – the new quota of 450,000 was announced for August 1st until December 31st.
There will be more info on the business next week, once everyone gets back to work in Peru.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,550 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,425 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,470 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67 protein | 1,540 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,550 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | No prices |
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| 65/66 protein | 1300/1320 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 1350/1370 m/t |
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| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1400/1430 m/t | 1530/1550 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1480/1500 m/t | 1580/1600 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1520/1540 m/t | 1600/1630 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1630/1650 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1900/1950 | 1700/1800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2000/2050 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2050/2100 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2400/2450 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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