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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
The big excitement this week was once again in soybeans/soymeal with soymeal futures up by about USD 30 m/t for July and August up by USD 20 m/t. Prices for later in the year, which are US new crop prices, were not up as much as the squeeze in soybean/soymeal supply is expected to be in the months prior to the US harvest.
The situation with soybeans is due to the Argentina harvest and the expected rain reduced crop along with a possible drop in Argentina exports by as much as 20 percent. There is also the expected increase in USA exports if Argentina exports drop – this increase could lead to shortages in US supply. Well, if not shortages at least higher prices due to increased export demand.
The USA trade reports that soybean crushers are already finding supplies tight in the US which has certainly helped to push July and August cash prices higher.
Unless there is a report of improvement in Argentina it certainly looks like we will be in for higher soybean/soymeal prices until we get into the next USA crop.
Corn priced were a little higher on the week with experts saying that the small increase was more of a spillover from higher soybeans rather than any good reason for corn to move higher. There have been some continued rains I parts of the US that have slowed planting and while corn planting is behind the 2015 level it is still ahead of the five-year average.
US weekly corn exports have been very good and if they continue strong this could keep corn prices steady or perhaps higher.
Crop planting progress and condition --- USA and France
| Planting USA | May 15 2016 % | May 15 2015 % | Five year Average % |
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| Corn | 75 | 82 | 70 |
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| Sorghum | 33 | 36 | 36 |
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| Soybeans | 36 | 41 | 32 |
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| Spring Wheat | 89 | 92 | 64 |
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| Barley | 90 | 93 | 71 |
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| Condition USA | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
| Winter wheat - % | 1.0 | 6.0 | 31.0 | 51.0 | 11.0 |
| Barley |
| 1.0 | 24.0 | 58.0 | 17.0 |
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| Planting France | May 16 2016 % | May 16 2015 % |
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| Corn | 91 | 96 |
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| Barley | 100 | 100 |
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| Condition France | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
| Wheat | 1 | 3 | 11 | 53 | 33 |
| Winter barley | 1 | 4 | 12 | 56 | 28 |
| Durum wheat | 1 | 6 | 14 | 57 | 22 |
| Spring barley | 0 | 1 | 6 | 67 | 26 |
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@USDA and France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US PNW South Africa | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $15/16.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $48/49.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $48/49.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t | $17.50/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t | $18/18.50 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $10/11.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 625 | Up 25 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 870 | Up 72 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 614 | Up 17 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 562 | Up 9 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 343 | Down 4 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June/August 2016
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 194/200 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 194/202 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 177/182 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 189/193 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 180/184 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 174/176 | X |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 172/174 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 195/201 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 173/176 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 160/163 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 169/171 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 162/165 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 190/195 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 173/175 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 180/183 | x |
| Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2 | USD 210/212 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 164/166 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 180/183 | X |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 184/187 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 190/193 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 186/189 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 188>>180 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 165/168 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 455>>437 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 485>>467 | x |
| Soymeal, 46.5 pro, USA CNF Asia | USD 484>>475 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 446/449 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 409/411 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 437/440 | X |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 396/399 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ | No offers | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 403/408 | X |
| Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia | USD 453/457 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 405/408 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 415/418 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 400/410 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 588/593 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont. | USD 635/640 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 150/155 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 215>>209 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont | USD 248>>230 m/t | x |
Corn by-product prices were higher across the board as both higher corn prices and much higher soymeal prices pushed everything up. With spot soymeal up by USD 30 m/t it is certainly easy to understand why both DDGS and corn gluten meal prices raced higher.
Domestic DDGS prices in the USA were up by as much as USD 20 m/t with this level of price increase not being seen in the export market as yet. Corn gluten meal domestic prices also moved up by about USD 20 m/t. The quick rally in prices has not as yet all moved into the export prices but this will happen.
Corn gluten meal, in particular, has had a very strong rally - the result of both higher soymeal prices and increased demand due to the lack of fishmeal in world markets. CGM is a 60% protein feed item that always has good demand especially when the alternative protein items are in short supply. We have seen the prices for CGM exports in container move higher by about USD 60 m/t in the last couple of weeks.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 370/390 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 460/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 730/760 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices into major export markets in Asia are reported to be higher this week following the increases in soymeal prices. As long as soymeal continues to climb then MBM prices will not be too far behind. Poultry meal prices in Asia are also said to have moved higher as end-user are switching to poultry meal as a replacement for fishmeal – fishmeal being very expensive and in limited supply.
Domestic prices in the USA were not quite as active as prices to Asia with local markets having to absorb a short term oversupply of MBM which kept prices from rising. However, the increase in soymeal prices and the lack of fishmeal for some feed formulations will certainly tend to push prices higher for MBM and poultry meal in coming days.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
There has been some talk in Peru that the next quota may not be as low as some experts have forecasted, since the biomass may actually be larger than the last indications. However, it is also said that the government does not have sufficient information as yet to make a quota decision and that further research cruises will be required to fully assess the biomass. One problem that was raised by MSI Ceres in their weekly report is the difficulty that there may be in landing the new quota in the time allocated. The later the quota is set the less times there will be for fishing.
As usual there is nothing to report in new sales but published prices re just going higher and higher. The latest "forecasted" prices have not been incorporated into the table below as they are not representative of any actual sales or new contracts. Some trade reports have pegged Super Prime prices at USD 1,900/2,000 m/t but with no buyers or sellers active at present most prices are just guess work. There are only very small new stocks available from southern Peru where there is still a small fishing quota
Just to show you how many factors are considered, it was mentioned this week that there has been no reported increase in sea bird mortality in Peru which would imply that the fish supply is certainly adequate. Sea bird mortality is said to increase in years when biomass is low – makes sense as the birds do eat fish. However, not expecting this will have much effect on the next fishing quota. Not too sure that the experts are watching the bird population.
It was interesting to see the fishmeal import numbers for Turkey this week, as published by the IFFO. Turkey has imported 44,200 m/t of fishmeal so far in 2016: 25,600 m/t from Morocco, 14,100 m/t from Georgia and 1,400 m/t from Mauritania and 1,400 m/t from Russia, with only about 1,000 m/t coming from South America and nothing from northern Europe.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,810 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,500 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,580 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,650 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,820 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1320/1330 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1340/1360 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1370/1390 m/t | No offers |
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1400/1420 m/t | No offers |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | No offers |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1770/1790 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1630 m/t | 1800/1830 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2200/2250 | 1800/1900 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2350/2400 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2450/2500 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2700/2800 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon
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