Weekly Report - May 07, 2015

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Grain/oilseed prices had another very active week with lots of ups and downs as news from both South America and the US combined to move prices higher and then lower and higher again.

 

Corn prices in the USA were down by about USD 4 to 5 m/t on the weeks and with lower prices we saw an increase in business from the Mediterranean Region – Israel and Algeria in particular – as USA corn is now in the window where it prices very well again Black Sea corn. This is a window that should exist until there is some new crop corn harvest in Black Sea countries.

 

USA prices were pushed a little lower by the very good planting progress of the corn crop with planting running well ahead of the five-year average. There wasn't much in the way of bullish news from South America this week so prices seemed to follow what was happening with US planting weather.

 

Both soybeans and soymeal were higher on the week, much of the rally happening on Friday. Argentina soybean harvest is running well behind average, as a result of the heavy rains of weeks past. The US is expected to have to export increased soybean supplies to cover buyer's requirements that cannot now be met in Argentina.   

 

US planting weather for soybeans is good which is bearish but the harvest problems in Argentina are bullish and so far the bulls seem to be winning – at least in the short term. Projections from Argentina have the soybean crop expected lower not just a delayed harvest. However, if the Argentina soybean losses are not as great as expected then this could turn prices again from bullish to bearish.  

 

 

Crop planting progress and condition --- USA and France

 

Planting USA	May 01 2016	May 01 2015	Five year Average
Corn	45.0%	45.0%	30.0%
Sorghum	23.0%	28.0%	26.0%
Soybeans	8.0%	10.0%	6.0%
Spring Wheat	54.0%	69.0%	39.0%
Barley	57.0%	70.0%	47.0%
Condition USA	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Winter wheat	1.0%	6.0%	32.0%	50.0%	11.0%
Planting France	May 02 2016	May 02 2015
Corn	44.0%	80.0%
Barley	100.0%	100.0%
Condition France	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Wheat	1	3	10	54	33
Winter barley	0	3	10	57	29
Durum wheat	1	5	15	58	21
Spring barley	0	1	6	68	25

@USDA and France AgriMer

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$13/14.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$21/22.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$22/23.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$49/50.00	Steady	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$29/30.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$24/25.00	Up $2.00	x
US Gulf China: Panamax	$23/24.00	Up $2.00	x
US PNW South Africa	$30/31.00	Steady	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$15/16.00	Steady	x
US PNW China: Panamax	$14/15.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$41/42.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$48/49.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$30/31.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$34/35.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$49/50.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Up $2.00	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$24/25.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$25/26.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Egypt	$22/23.00	Up $2.00	X
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Up $2.00	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Up $2.00	X
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$37/38.00	Up $2.00	X
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Up $2.00	X
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Up $2.00	X
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Up $2.00	X
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Steady	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Europe	$26/27.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$35/36.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Steady	x
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t	$17.50/18.00	Steady	x
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t	$18.00/18.50	Steady	x
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to China	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$9/10.00	Down $1.00	x
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)	$12/13.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$16/17.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$27/28.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$17/18.00	Steady	x
Baltic Dry Index	631	Down 72	x
Baltic Capesize Index	892	Down 225	x
Baltic Panamax Index	591	Down 75	x
Baltic Supramax Index	578	Down 4	X
Baltic Handisize Index	359	Down 8	x

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR May/July 2016

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 194/197	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 197/200	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 177/181	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 192/195	x
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 183/186	x
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 174/176	x
Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen	USD 173/175	X
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver	USD 198/202	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 172/175	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 165/167	x
Barley, feed, Argentina	USD 165/167	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 167/168	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 190/195	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 169/171	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 172/175	x
Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2	USD 202/206	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 164/167	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 174/177	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 181/185	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 188/193	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 183/186	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 172/175	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 160/165	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA	USD 396/400	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 431/435	X
Soymeal, 46.5 pro, USA CNF Asia	USD 429/433	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 395/399	x
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina	USD 379/384	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 385/389	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 340/345	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ	USD 600/605	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 396/400	x
Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia	USD 426/431	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 380/384	X
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 393/397	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 380/390	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD  555/560 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont.	USD  580/585 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD  130/135 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD  187>>182 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont	USD  225>>220 m/t	x

 

While corn prices were down a little on the week, DDGS prices wanted to move higher – of course the prices were following soymeal prices more closely that corn this week. It is also reported that there has been a jump in demand from Asia – some say as a result of container rate increases.

 

China is still the number one buyer for US DDGS, as can be seen below, but their purchases are down in 2016 by about 40%. However, DDGS exports are up strongly to other countries resulting in 2016 year to date total exports being almost identical to 2015 exports. Not bad, when you consider that the main buyer's purchases are down by 460,000 m/t in only three months.

 

Corn gluten feed prices were unchanged in both the domestic and export markets but, depending on who you talked to, corn gluten meal prices took a jump higher in the export market.  Domestic USA corn gluten meal prices were steady but good demand for exports was able to push the export prices higher over the next three months or so.

 

The USDA issued their monthly "grain crushing and co-products report" this week and it shows corn consumption up by about 3% which has resulted in DDGS production increasing by about 7% over last month while corn gluten feed production was up by 9.6% and corn gluten meal production up by 10.0%. Close to 91% of the corn used in "grain crushing" was for alcohol production, mainly ethanol, with DDGS being a direct dry milling by-product of ethanol production. Corn gluten feed and corn gluten feed are by-products of wet milling.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA exports of Corn By-products – January to March 2016,

in m/t, major destinations

 

Country	Distillers Dried Grains - DDGS	Corn Gluten Feed	Corn Gluten Meal
Canada	122,800	6,800	14,700
Chile			8,900
China	551,100
Colombia	32,200	5,400	22,700
Egypt	26,100		32,800
Indonesia	106,400		58,500
Ireland	94,200	118,600
Israel	31,900	36,900
Japan	60,900		3,800
Malaysia			4,400
Mexico	482,800	4,100	8,600
Morocco	32,000	11,700
Philippines	44,400
Portugal		21,400
South Korea	164,700
Taiwan	53,800		6,400
Thailand	141,000		6,600
Turkey	100,200	9,200
UK	38,400	20,800
Vietnam	171,000		2,800

@USDA GATS stats

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein    Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein	USD 405/425 m/t CNF Asia  USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia  USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein	USD 340/360 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia  USD 465/475 m/t CNF Asia  USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 710/730 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia  USD 460/480 m/t CNF Asia  USD 530/560 m/t CNF Asia  USD 730/760 m/t CNF Asia

 

According to trade reports, the volume of meat and bone meal business being booked in Asia is quite strong. With the major buyer, like Indonesia, still very active with pre-Ramadan orders. Prices are reported to be a little lower into Asia for meat and bone meal for both the US and Australia.

 

There were some stories in the trade that European meat and bone meal has sold as low as USD 250 into the countries that can import this product. Meat and bone meal also came up in the EU parliament when the question was asked about using meat and bone meal in animal feed once again. The EU reply was that a study of the use of animal proteins will be completed in late 2016 and no decision will be made before this study is available.

 

USA domestic prices for both meat and bone meal and feathermeal have moved lower – due mainly to plentiful supplies rather than a drop in demand. Reports also say that export demand has slacked off somewhat which is also putting pressure on domestic prices. 

 

  

USA exports of Animal Protein items – January to March 2016,

 in m/t – major destinations

 

Country	Meat and Bone Meal Including poultry and pork meal	Feathermeal
Bangladesh	1,100
Canada	15,400	2,700
Chile		5,400
China	15,800	1,600
Ecuador	1,700
Holland	1,500
Indonesia	34,200	6,600
Mexico	16,100
Philippines	5,500
Vietnam	5,200	400

@USDA GATS stats

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Reports out of Peru this week say that the initial government cruise to survey the biomass did not go all that well and that the cruise will be done again in about ten days. More and more people are saying that the next quota will be reduced or perhaps there will be no new quota. MSC Ceres was saying this week that they are now thinking about a quota of 1 to 1.5 million m/t, not the 2.0 to 2.5 million m/t they had expected only a few weeks ago.

 

There has not been a huge amount a catch seen in the south as the total to date is only about 20,000 m/t of catch against the 382,000 m/t quota. The quota is until June 30 but looks like I will not be filled.

 

The price situation in Peru shows new quota prices being pushed higher by the rumors of a low quota. Some experts say that Super Prime prices are probably up by about USD 50 m/t but there seem to be very few sellers ---- times are just too uncertain.

 

Buyers interest in Peru is growing – probably in sync with all the quota stories, rumors and speculations.

 

Looking at the Peru situation this week, there is certainly no reason to expect prices to move lower. We can probably expect steady to higher prices until there is a little better information on the biomass situation.

 

It was interesting this week looking at the fishmeal production numbers from Europe. Denmark/Norway fishmeal production so far in 2016 is down by about 24% on last year with Iceland production off by 36%. With most of the majors having lower production, it is difficult to see any opportunity for prices to slip lower.  

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72% protein	1,820
Danish fishmeal	64% protein	1,485
Peru fishmeal	64% protein	1,520
Chile fishmeal	67% protein	1,580
Iceland fishmeal	70% protein	1,880

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65% protein	1320/1330 m/t
65/66 protein	1340/1360 m/t
67% protein standard steam	1370/1390 m/t	No offers
67% protein 150 TVN	1400/1420 m/t	No offers
67% protein 120 TVN	1500/1520 m/t	1550/1580
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1550/1570 m/t	1600/1620
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN	1600/1620 m/t	1620/1640
Fish oil, crude bulk	2200/2250	1800/1900
Fish oil, crude drums	2350/2400
Fish oil, flexi tank	2450/2500
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2700/2800

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon