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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
This weekend is a long weekend in the USA as Monday is Memorial Day with all the US markets closed and for all motorsport lovers the weekend for the Indianapolis 500 race. However, as a Formula 1 type of guy, I will be watching the Monaco Grand Prix – c'est la vie.
Now, back to grains. It was certainly a strong week for most everything with corn up by about USD 7 m/t, soybeans (old crop) up by close to USD 5 m/t and soymeal up by USD 8 to 9 m/t. Even US winter wheat had an up week with soft red winter up by USD 5 m/t and hard red winter up by USD 4 m/t.
US corn was stronger this week as Brazil prices moved higher and US export demand was very good. For now, in some markets, US corn is a "best-buy" – just look at the shipments to the MENA region to see how competitive US corn is. Corn did hit is high for the past 7 months this week pushed a little higher by expected US rain related delays for the planting of the last of the 2016 corn crop.
The USDA's first corn crop condition report comes out on Tuesday and this could easily push the market one way or the other. If the condition is a tad lower that experts predict then we could see higher corn prices.
Soybeans/soymeal were not quite a bullish this week after a very good run to higher prices over the past few weeks. The tightness in the current old crop stocks will keep prices steady until we see some new crop in the US and good demand for soymeal in world markets is helping to keep prices firm. As with corn, US soybeans and soymeal are about all that is readily available for the moment. Of course with the Brazil and Argentina crops the window for US soybeans may not be wide open for too long.
Crop planting progress and condition --- USA and France
| Planting USA | May 22 2016 % | May 22 2015 % | Five year Average % |
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| Corn | 86 | 90 | 85 |
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| Sorghum | 37 | 40 | 43 |
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| Soybeans | 56 | 56 | 52 |
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| Spring Wheat | 95 | 95 | 77 |
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| Barley | 94 | 99 | 81 |
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| Condition USA | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
| Winter wheat - % | 1 | 7 | 30 | 51 | 11 |
| Spring wheat | 0 | 2 | 22 | 68 | 8 |
| Barley | 0 | 1 | 23 | 58 | 18 |
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| Planting France | May 23 2016 % | May 23 2015 % |
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| Corn | 95 | 99 |
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| Barley | 100 | 100 |
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| Condition France | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
| Wheat | 1 | 4 | 12 | 52 | 31 |
| Winter barley | 1 | 4 | 13 | 56 | 27 |
| Durum wheat | 1 | 6 | 15 | 57 | 21 |
| Spring barley | 0 | 1 | 6 | 67 | 26 |
| Corn | 1 | 1 | 14 | 77 | 7 |
@USDA and France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US PNW South Africa | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t | $17.50/18.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t | $18/18.50 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $10/11.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | up $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 606 | Down 19 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 830 | Down 40 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 582 | Down 32 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 579 | Up 17 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 347 | Up 4 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June/August 2016
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 201/205 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 200/204 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 181/184 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 187/191 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 182/186 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 177/178 | X |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 175/176 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 195/201 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 173/176 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 164/167 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 165/170 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 160/163 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 195/200 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 180/184 | X |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 187/189 | x |
| Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2 | USD 216/218 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 186/189 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 187/190 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 188/191 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 194/196 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 185/188 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 196>>187 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 170/175 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 475>>460 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 505>>490 | X |
| Soymeal, 46.5 pro, USA CNF Asia | USD 506>>497 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 479/483 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 439/443 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 468/472 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 425/429 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ | No offers | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 408/413 | x |
| Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia | USD 458/462 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 408/410 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 418/421 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 400/410 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 640/645 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont. | USD 675/680 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 157/160 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 215>>211 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont | USD 244>>237 m/t | x |
Corn by-product prices are up, up, up and up as they follow corn, soymeal and even fishmeal prices higher. There is certainly no reason to expect lower prices during this serious price rally. Reading all the various price reports in the US, there is no one showing lower prices for any corn by-products. Even poor old unexciting corn gluten feed is having a decent run higher.
Corn gluten meal is the product with the largest increase in price as fishmeal buyers have rushed into the market to buy what they can so they can better deal with lower fishmeal supplies for their aquafeed formulations.
A corn gluten meal buyer in Egypt was saying this week that he expects a large increase in CGM imports by Egypt over the next few months. Egypt normally imports 10 to 12,000 m/t of CGM per month but he was saying that imports could hit 40,000 m/t – seems like quite a jump but who knows as Egypt is a major tilapia producer and corn gluten meal works quite well in the tilapia diet.
For now, there seems to be little or no reason to expect any serious price weakness in the corn by-product sector of the feed ingredient market.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 470/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 460/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 730/760 m/t CNF Asia |
Export prices for animal proteins in most major markets in Asia are moving higher as they follow the lead of soymeal prices higher. Poultry meal is particularly strong as it is being used as a replacement for much more expensive fishmeal. Of course, with little fishmeal available buyer do have to look to other proteins and poultry meal is about the best alternative in the animal protein sector.
Trade reports this week are saying that animal protein supplies from Australia will be tighter in coming week as the beef and sheep kill numbers will be lower, reducing rendering stocks.
US domestic prices are all steady to higher with everyone expecting that prices will just follow soymeal higher.
As the experts are saying – it is a seller's market in animal proteins.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The latest IMARPE (Peruvian Sea Institute) cruise was started this week in Peru with early results expected in the first week of June. The cruise is scheduled to finish on June 20 after which it is expected that an announcement will be made regarding the Peru fishing quota. The previous IMARPE cruise had found that the biomass was not sufficient to support any fishing.
As to new business, there is little or nothing happening – nothing to sell and no idea of what, if any, quota we could see for June/July. No one wants to sell new production as yet and buyers don't really want to commit to today's prices.
However, there was some reasonable fishing in the south of Peru with about 22,000 m/t of fish landed which will make about 5,000 m/t of new fishmeal available in coming days --- not much but certainly better than nothing.
It was reported this week that Skretting Norway has, after many years of research, developed the basis for salmon feed that will use no fishmeal. They say that with the knowledge in hand they will be able to produce salmon feeds that will not have prices vulnerable to the rapid price changes in the fishmeal market. Skretting says that this development and the knowledge that goes with it will help them in research for reducing fishmeal in the diets of other more fishmeal reliant species.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,815 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,510 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,800 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,700 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,800 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1320/1330 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1340/1360 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1370/1390 m/t | No offers |
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1400/1420 m/t | No offers |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | No offers |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1770/1790 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1630 m/t | 1800/1830 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2200/2250 | 1800/1900 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2350/2400 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2450/2500 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2700/2800 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon
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