Weekly report - August 06, 2016

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Again this week, except for wheat, we had a down week for most everything – at least in the US futures market.  Corn prices were down by about USD 4 m/t with soybeans down by USD 10 to 12 m/t and soymeal down USD 16 or so per m/t. Only wheat prices were relatively unchanged on the week.

 

US corn prices seem to want to go lower every week and this week, once again, corn futures hit contract low levels. The US Grains Council pointed out that US corn is now priced lower than almost any source of export corn in the world but that even with low prices the export inspections were not enough to get any excitement going in the corn market.

 

The weather for the corn crops continues to be good almost everywhere in the US with 76% rated as good to excellent and some experts looking for corn yields higher than what the USDA has been forecasting. We have the latest USDA WASDE report out this week so this should give a better idea of what the USDA expects from the corn cop.

 

US soybean futures prices were up on Friday but were still lower on the week – much like corn, there doesn't seem to be anything that will push prices seriously higher – other than the odd one-day rally. The weather is good and although some experts are worried about the effect of a hot dry August on the soybean crop most experts don't see any problem so far.

 

The rally in soybeans on Friday seems to have been due to the almost daily announcement of new soybean sales to China coupled with reported very low selling of soybeans by US farmers.

 

Again, as with corn, everyone is waiting to see what the USDA WASDE report says when it is issued on August 12.

 

 

Crop condition --- USA and France

 

Condition USA Aug 01, 2016	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Spring wheat	2	6	24	58	10
Barley	1	3	24	58	14
Corn	1	5	18	56	20
Soybeans	2	5	22	56	15
Sorghum	1	5	28	55	11
Condition France Aug 01, 2016	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Wheat	10	25	31	31	4
Winter barley	6	22	30	37	5
Durum wheat	16	13	21	40	9
Spring barley	2	20	30	45	3
Corn	3	7	21	62	8

@USDA and France AgriMer

 

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$14/15.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$18/19.00	Steady	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$17/18.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$19/20.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$32/33.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$47/48.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)	$31/32.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$27/28.00	Steady	x
US Gulf China: Panamax	$25/26.00	Steady	x
US PNW South Africa	$30/31.00	Down $1.00	X
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$15/16.00	Steady	X
US PNW China: Panamax	$14/15.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$42/43.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$48/49.00	Down $1.00	X
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$33/34.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$32/33.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$50/51.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Steady	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$28/29.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$30/31.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t	$43/44.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$29/30.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t	$27/28.00	Steady	X
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Down $1.00	X
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t	$36/37.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$19/19.50	Steady	X
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$19.50/20.00	Steady	x
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Down $1.00	x
Ukraine to China	$22/23.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$9/10.00	Down $0.50	x
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)	$14/15.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$29/30.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Steady	x
Baltic Dry Index	636	Down 20	x
Baltic Capesize Index	770	Up 2	x
Baltic Panamax Index	640	Down 52	X
Baltic Supramax Index	647	Down 24	X
Baltic Handisize Index	394	Down 5	x

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR August/October 2016

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 184/198	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 197/206	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 163/166	X
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 164/167	X
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 174/177	X
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 187/189	x
Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen	USD 187/189	X
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver	USD 205/208	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 157/160	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 159/161	x
Barley, feed, Argentina	USD 147/150	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 151/154	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 175/180	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 167/170	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 177/180	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 180/183	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 184/187	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 177/181	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 192/196	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 177/181	x
Sorghum, FOB NOLA	USD 169/172	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 150/155	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA	USD 397/404	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 422/429	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 408/412	x
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina	USD 377/381	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 406/410	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 375/379	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ	USD 540/550	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 410/414	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 410/413	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 425/429	X
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 420/425	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD  650/660 m/t	X
Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt	USD  700/710 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD  155/160 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD  182/185 m/t	x

 

It is interesting to note that Indonesia is once again the major export destination for US corn gluten meal after two or three years where Egypt was number one. And, while the chart below does not show a comparison with last year, the shipments of DDGS to China re down by 60% from last year – that is a drop in sales of just over 2 million m/t but, on the plus side the shipments to Turkey are up by about 400,000 m/t as shippers seem to have overcome the GMO problems with Turkey. Large increases in export DDGS shipments in 2016 are seen to Vietnam – up 230,000 m/t, South Korea – up 160,000 m/t, Israel – up 60,000 m/t and Pakistan – up 55,000 m/t. Total corn gluten feed exports are up by almost 50% to 540,000 m/t with much of the increase due to Turkey – up by 126,000 m/t and Ireland up by 75,000 m/t.

 

There was a comment in the trade this week that China's DDGS imports could be down by 3 million m/t overall in 2016 – this would represent a drop of about 25% from last year's DDGS total exports of 12.7 million m/t.

 

Domestic prices in the US were lower for all corn by-products with DDGS down as much as USD 20 m/t and corn gluten meal falling by USD 35 m/t in some areas, with an average drop of just over USD 20 m/t. Corn gluten feed was not down quite as much but still did average about USD 5 m/t lower.

 

All these lower domestic prices will follow into export prices and as we have seen this week with both DDGS and CGM export prices have slipped quite a bit lower.

 

 

USA exports of corn by products – Jan to June 2016, in m/t, major destinations

 

	Corn Gluten Meal	Corn Gluten Feed	Distillers Dried Grains – DDGS
Canada	32,300	13,700	256,900
Chile	26,800
China			1,339,400
Colombia	40,700	30,200	78,000
Costa Rica			51,300
Egypt	105,500		60,800
El Salvador	6,400		31,400
Holland		19,100
Indonesia	109,600		183,000
Ireland		166,500	147,800
Israel		78,600	77,500
Japan	6,000		127,800
Malaysia	8,100		21,000
Mexico	15,600	7,400	949,500
Morocco		42,700	85,800
Pakistan			57,500
Philippines			72,200
Portugal		25,800
South Korea			334,500
Taiwan	13,500		102,800
Thailand	13,400		283,000
Turkey		126,400	406,300
UK		27,000	76,000
Vietnam	7,300		444,400

@USDA GATS  

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein    Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein	USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia  USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein	USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia  USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia  USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia  USD 810/830 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia  USD 560/580 m/t CNF Asia  USD 660/670 m/t CNF Asia  USD 800/815 m/t CNF Asia

 

Meat and bone meal prices in Asia are reported to have dropped this week as the buyers adjust their bids to the lower vegetable meal prices of the past couple of weeks. While the buyer's bids are lower there does not seem to be a great deal of interest from sellers to move prices lower – especially from Australia where limited supplies for export are keeping prices steady. Australian domestic prices are reported to have moved higher and this will put upward pressure on export prices – no matter if buyers want to buy lower.

 

USA domestic prices for animal proteins have slipped a little lower as lower soymeal prices push everything down --- no one much wants to pay a higher price for MBM as soymeal continues to drop lower almost every week. US domestic prices for MBM are lower across the US with some areas showing a drop of as much as USD 25 m/t, with the average drop being closer to USD 10 to 15 m/t. For the week, feathermeal prices were said to be steady to higher but experts seem to feel that this won't last and that feathermeal prices should slip lower in coming weeks.

 

 

USA exports of animal protein – January to June 2016, in m/t

 

	Meat and Bone meal Incl poultry and pork meal	Feathermeal
Indonesia	61,800	14,300
Chile		7,600
Canada	31,700	6,700
China	30,800	2,800
Vietnam	14,200	400
Mexico	30,400
Philippines	8,000
Holland	4,000
Ecuador	4,900
Thailand	2,400
Honduras	5,200
Germany	2,500

@USDA GATS

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

It looks like the final tally for the fishing in the north of Peru will be just under 910,000 m/t or fifty percent or so of the quota for the period. Some trade reports have the catch a little lower at about 870,000 m/t while others report as high as 920,000 m/t.  Total fishmeal production for the period is about 210,000 m/t.

 

Last week was very quiet in Peru due to the many National holidays, but at the end of the week there were some buyers sniffing around and the sniffing seems to have pushed prices up by USD 30 to 50 m/t in Peru.

 

There are stories in the trade that as much as seventy percent of the fishmeal has now been sold which certainly means that whatever is left in Peru will command a higher price. With the limited supply that we now have in Peru having to last until at least November there is no reason to expect that fishmeal prices will move lower. Not that the current demand is at all overwhelming just that the supply situation in Peru is extremely limited.

 

Omega Proteins in the USA reports that their profits are up in 2016 due to a 47% increase in their fishmeal business along with a 101% jump in their fishoil sales. They say that the increase in sales helped to offset a drop in prices that they have seen so far in 2016. They report that their fishing in both the Gulf of Mexico and the east coast of the USA is running ahead of the recent three-year average. Omega is looking for continued growth in its marine based animal feed sector much of this due to their increased investments in capital projects.

 

Just a quick note that the IFFO – the industry's trade organization – annual conference is being held in Bangkok, Thailand on October 24 to 26. As usual, all of the major fishmeal/fishoil people are expected to attend.

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72% protein	1,825
Danish fishmeal	64% protein	1,525
Peru fishmeal	64% protein	1,600
Chile fishmeal	67% protein	1,700
Iceland fishmeal	70% protein	1,885

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65% protein	1650/1660 m/t
65/66 protein	1670/1690 m/t
67% protein standard steam	1710/1730 m/t	No offers
67% protein 150 TVN	1740/1760 m/t	1650/1670
67% protein 120 TVN	1770/1790 m/t	1680/1700
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1820/1840 m/t	1760/1780
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN	1900/1920 m/t	1800/1820
Fish oil, crude bulk	2100/2150	1650/1700
Fish oil, crude drums	2250/2300
Fish oil, flexi tank	2350/2400
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2700/2800

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon