Weekly Report August 13, 2016

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz   

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1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

The big news for grains in the US this week was the USDA WASDE report (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) and while the report was overall bearish for grains and oilseeds there was not any major reaction from the markets.

 

Corn yields are forecasted higher as is overall production with new-crop ending stocks estimated to be the highest in close to 30 years. Yields and production forecasts are at record levels.

 

Soybean yields too are forecasted higher as is overall production and, like corn, new-crop ending stocks are higher. Soybean total production is forecasted at a record high level.

 

Wheat overall yields are forecasted higher with total production up by 3 percent from the previous report but up 15% from last year.

 

With all yields and production and most stocks higher, it is difficult to be looking for higher prices for any major grain or oilseed – at least for this week.

 

For those interested in yield comparisons, the corn yield is forecasted at 11.0 m/t per hectare which is considerably higher than the EU forecast of 7.42 m/t per hectare for the 28 EU countries.

 

Other than the WASDE report there did not seem to be much news in the market that affected corn or soybean prices. Looking at all the end of week trade reports all that was mentioned was the WASDE with no one even talking about the weather or export sales or anything else.

 

 

Crop condition --- USA and France

 

Condition USA Aug 09, 2016	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Spring wheat	2	6	24	58	10
Barley	1	4	23	57	15
Corn	2	5	19	54	20
Soybeans	2	5	21	55	17
Sorghum	1	6	28	53	12
Condition France Aug 08, 2016	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Wheat	12	25	30	29	4
Winter barley	6	22	31	37	5
Durum wheat	16	13	21	40	9
Spring barley	5	24	32	36	3
Corn	3	7	22	60	8

@USDA and France AgriMer

 

The question was asked this week as to why I am showing France crop information rather than for the Black Sea or Brazil and Argentina – firstly, the detailed information is readily available from France and secondly, much of my report is biased toward the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa) as that is where is have spent most of my grain career and the North Africa area in particular is the major destination for French grain exports. So, with my MENA bias, the France info seemed to be of value.

 

It is somewhat the same reason as why I have so little information on wheat – wheat in much of the MENA region is all or quasi government controlled, so I highlight items that are commercially traded rather than government controlled.

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$14/15.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$19/20.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$20/21.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$48/49.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)	$32/33.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$28/29.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf China: Panamax	$26/27.00	Up $1.00	x
US PNW South Africa	$29/30.00	Down $1.00	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$15/16.00	Steady	x
US PNW China: Panamax	$14/15.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$42/43.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$48/49.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$31/32.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$34/35.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$33/34.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$51/52.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$27/28.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$29/30.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t	$42/43.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$28/29.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t	$27/28.00	Steady	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Down $1.00	X
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t	$36/37.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$18.50/19.00	Down $0.50	x
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$19.00/19.50	Down $0.50	x
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to China	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$9.50/10.50	Up $0.50	x
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)	$14/15.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$29/30.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Steady	x
Baltic Dry Index	671	Up 35	x
Baltic Capesize Index	891	Up 121	x
Baltic Panamax Index	703	Up 63	x
Baltic Supramax Index	643	Down 4	X
Baltic Handisize Index	396	Up 2	x

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR August/October 2016

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 192/202	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 201/210	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 161/164	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 170/172	x
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 171/173	X
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 189/191	x
Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen	USD 189/191	x
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver	USD 207/210	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 155/158	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 159/161	X
Barley, feed, Argentina	USD 147/150	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 155/157	X
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 175/180	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 168/172	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 183/185	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 181/184	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 186/189	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 175/180	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 197/200	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 173/177	x
Sorghum, FOB NOLA	USD 175/178	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 150/155	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA	USD 402/405	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 427/430	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 410/415	x
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina	USD 380/383	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 406/410	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 379/383	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ	USD 545/555	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 405/408	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 415/418	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 424/428	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 440/445	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD  640/650 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt	USD  670/675 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD  155/160 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD  183/185 m/t	x

 

 

 

DDGS prices in the USA were steady on the week, as were export prices, but, as there are very good supplies of DDGS in the US, it would not be too difficult to expect lower DDGS prices in coming weeks. Overall in the US, you could say that DDGS prices were lower by USD 2 or so per m/t, which is quite a small change when compared to recent weeks.

 

Corn gluten meal prices continue to tumble lower with prices this week said to be about USD 15 m/t lower on average – even lower from some exporters. Corn gluten meal prices ran up quite high very quickly a few weeks ago and are now getting back down into a much more reasonable price range.

 

There was a comment this week from a major Egyptian buyer of CGM that the market in Egypt is overflowing with CGM, as imports were high earlier in the year, and now importers are selling below cost to reduce inventories. Egypt is the number 2 market for US CGM exports, so what happens in Egypt is very important to exporters.

 

Domestic US corn gluten feed prices were lower on the week but this does not seem to have affected export prices as yet -- we should see the export prices move lower next week if the domestic prices stay soft.  

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein    Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein	USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia  USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein	USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia  USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia  USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia  USD 810/830 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 520/530 m/t CNF Asia  USD 550/580 m/t CNF Asia  USD 660/670 m/t CNF Asia  USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia

 

Animal protein prices to the major markets in Asia are all a little lower this week as the weaker prices for other protein alternatives keeps dragging down animal protein prices. The only snag in the formula is tight supplies from Australia that are keeping their export prices a tad firmer.

 

USA domestic and export animal protein prices too are weaker, as there just seems to be a little too much supply for the current demand. The Jacobsen report this week was pointing out that the low prices for DDGS are swinging buyers to it for a protein alternative. For many feed formulations, DDGS has become a good protein alternative – but perhaps not for aquafeed.

 

The USDA national price report this week has all animal protein prices in the USA moving lower, with MBM down as much as USD 30 m/t in the US. Feathermeal too was lower, as much as USD 25 m/t.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

All the talk in Peru seems to have changed to the next fishing season, in November, and what the quota is likely to be. Seems that most in the industry expect quite a high quota compared to last year where it was just 1.1 million m/t. The trade seems to feel that the November quota will be up close to 2.5 million m/t this year.

 

Also from the trade, there has been very little buyer interest over the past few days, much to everyone's surprise. It has been expected that the last remaining stocks of Peru fishmeal will be sold in a flash but that does not seem to be happening. Firstly, the buyers are not much in the market and secondly, the producers with stocks are not too interested in selling, at least not yet with the chance of higher prices in coming weeks.

 

Business to China is reported to be very quiet as consumers in China seem to be working down the local supplies and are not rushing out to buy new stock. There is also very little business coming from Europe – mainly due to the lower prices for European origin fishmeal, as can be seen in the table below.

 

On the price side of things, prices seem to have leveled off after the sudden jump that followed the end of fishing. The panic for a week or so that pushed prices way up has moderated and Peruvian prices seem to be back to a more reasonable level. Of course, as stocks wind down then prices could move higher once again.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD	Cost per protein unit
Herring fishmeal	72% protein	1,820	25.27
Danish fishmeal	64% protein	1,540	24.06
Peru fishmeal	64% protein	1,660	25.93
Chile fishmeal	67% protein	1,750	26.11
Iceland fishmeal	70% protein	1,840	26.28

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65% protein	1560/1570 m/t
65/66 protein	1580/1590 m/t
67% protein standard steam	1610/1620 m/t	No offers
67% protein 150 TVN	1660/1670 m/t	1650/1670
67% protein 120 TVN	1720/1740 m/t	1680/1700
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1750/1760 m/t	1760/1780
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN	1800/1820 m/t	1800/1820
Fish oil, crude bulk	2100/2150	1650/1700
Fish oil, crude drums	2250/2300
Fish oil, flexi tank	2350/2400
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2700/2800

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon