Weekly Report -- August 20, 2016

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

My wife and I went off to Bern Switzerland this week for a couple of days – what a nice wee city. Easy walking, very scenic, very friendly but, like all of Switzerland, very expensive.

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Everything seemed to want to go a little higher in price this week, both in cash and in futures, as there was not too much in new information in the market and up seemed like the best way for prices to go. Up or down – it didn't make too much difference as it seemed to be a very quiet week. Perhaps due to the summer holidays in many markets – at least in the Northern Hemisphere.

 

Overall, corn prices were up by USD 3 or 4 m/t on the week probably on some stories in the US that yields may not be as good as the USDA had forecasted. Corn futures priced were up a little every day, a very little, but not enough to get anyone excited or to set off computer covering of futures positions.

 

Some experts say that the only reason that corn prices moved higher was because soybean prices were quite strong and this trend overflowed into the corn market – that seems reasonable. However, there were news stories of lower corn yields in France and Romania which may have pushed prices a little. France is a very small non-EU exporter of corn while Romanian corn is mainly for EU use but with some decent business in North Africa but neither France nor Romania can be considered too important in the world corn market.

 

Cash corn markets for old crop corn were quite strong as buyers rush to cover all their needs until new crop corn is available.

 

Soybean prices were higher on the week but did finish Friday on a little bit of a drop. Strong export sales helped to push soybean prices higher but the very good growing weather tended to stop prices from going too high. There were some comments at the end of the week that the very good growing weather could push yields even higher which would certainly result in lower long term prices.

 

It will be interesting to see if the small soybean rally this week will extend into next week. But with the down finish for prices on Friday then higher prices on Monday don't seem too likely.

 

 

Crop condition --- USA and France

 

Condition USA Aug 16, 2016	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Spring wheat	3	6	25	56	10
Barley	1	4	24	56	15
Corn	2	5	19	53	21
Soybeans	2	5	21	55	17
Sorghum	1	6	28	52	13
Condition France Aug 15, 2016	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Wheat	12	26	30	29	4
Winter barley	6	22	31	37	5
Durum wheat	16	13	21	40	9
Spring barley	5	24	32	36	3
Corn	3	10	24	56	7

@USDA and France AgriMer

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$15/15.50	Up $0.50	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$20/21.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$19/20.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$48/49.00	Steady	x
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$29/30.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf China: Panamax	$27/28.00	Up $1.00	x
US PNW South Africa	$29/30.00	Steady	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$15/16.00	Steady	X
US PNW China: Panamax	$14/15.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$43/44.00	Up $1.00	X
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$48/49.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$32/33.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$34/35.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$34/35.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$52/53.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$28/29.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$30/31.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t	$41/42.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$27/28.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t	$27/28.00	Steady	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Up $1.00	X
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Up $2.00	x
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$19.00/19.50	Up $0.50	X
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$19.50/20.00	Up $0.50	X
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	x
Ukraine to China	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Up $1.00	X
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Down $2.00	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$9.50/10.50	Steady	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t	$12/13.00	New	X
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Down $2.00	X
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Corrected	X
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)	$15/16.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$30/31.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$16/17.00	corrected	X
Baltic Dry Index	683	Up 12	x
Baltic Capesize Index	843	Down 48	x
Baltic Panamax Index	727	Up 24	x
Baltic Supramax Index	686	Up 43	x
Baltic Handisize Index	412	Up 16	x

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR September/November 2016

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 199/204	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 203/213	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 166/170	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 170/173	x
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 172/175	x
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 189/191	x
Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen	USD 189/191	x
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver	USD 207/210	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 158/162	X
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 157/159	x
Barley, feed, Argentina	USD 147/150	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 153/155	X
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 180/185	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 170/176	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 187/189	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 186/189	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 193/196	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 179/184	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 199/201	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 178/181	x
Sorghum, FOB NOLA	USD 180/182	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 155/160	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA	USD 402/405	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 427/430	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 405/410	x
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina	USD 375/380	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 400/405	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 376/381	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ	USD 545/555	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 406/409	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 422/426	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 426/430	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 420/430	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD  640/650 m/t	X
Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt	USD  670/675 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD  157/162 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD  196/199 m/t	x

 

 

USA corn by-product prices were all lower on the week with corn gluten meal showing the greatest weakness. CGM prices were down by about USD 17 m/t on average, as reported by the USDA, with corn gluten feed just slightly lower while DDGS, depending on the area, were down as much as USD 10 m/t.

 

It is interesting to note that DDGS export prices were going against the trend for the week and were close to USD 10 m/t higher in the export market. Speculation is that some larger DDGS export buyers had stayed out of the market for a couple of weeks waiting for the USDA WASDE report and have now jumped back in, which may have pushed export prices up too high on the week. There doesn't really seem to be a good long term reason for DDGS prices to be increasing, even with corn prices up a little on the week.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein    Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein	USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia  USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein	USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia  USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia  USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia  USD 810/830 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 500/520 m/t CNF Asia  USD 550/580 m/t CNF Asia  USD 660/670 m/t CNF Asia  USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia

 

Meat and bone meal prices into major markets in Asia were quite a bit lower this week as low priced vegetable protein items were pressuring prices. Trade reports said that both Australia and New Zealand were trying to keep prices up but this just made buyer look to lower priced origins. Supply is not all that great from both OZ and NZ so this will probably keep their prices a little higher for the near term.

 

USA MBM and feathermeal export sales are said to have been quite good over the past week due in part to slightly lower prices with good levels of export supply available.

 

USA domestic prices were also a little lower as stocks in the US were good and weak vegetable protein prices added pressure to animal protein prices.

 

There doesn't look like there is any good reason these days for prices to move higher. At least not as long as veg protein stays weak.

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

The only fishing in Peru these days is in the south and, at present, the weather has not been too cooperative for fishing. There are only a few vessels out and they are only landing 1500 to 2000 m/t of fish per day in total.

 

According to trade reports from Peru, the sellers are getting a little concerned by the lack of buyers and prices have tended to slip lower. MSI Ceres was saying this week that some larger buyers seem to be well covered and may not need more fishmeal supply until very late in 2016.

 

China seems to be reasonably well stocked with fishmeal from several origins, including quite a lot in transit, so are not running out to buy additional stocks and may not be back in the market in Peru for a couple of months or so.

 

Of course, one also has to consider that there are not large stocks of available fishmeal in Peru (about 40,000 m/t) and as MSI Ceres points out: there are many more origins in the fishmeal business today and many have upgraded their quality and their logistics.

 

So, even though Peru is able to sell all their fishmeal every year, there are lots of other countries that are becoming bigger and better fishmeal exporters every year.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD	Cost per protein unit
Herring fishmeal	72% protein	1,875	26.04
Danish fishmeal	64% protein	1,555	24.29
Peru fishmeal	64% protein	1,650	25.93
Chile fishmeal	67% protein	1,750	26.11
Iceland fishmeal	70% protein	1,900	27.14

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65% protein	1510/1520 m/t
65/66 protein	1530/1540 m/t
67% protein standard steam	1560/1570 m/t	No offers
67% protein 150 TVN	1610/1620 m/t	1620/1640
67% protein 120 TVN	1670/1680 m/t	1670/1680
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1700/1720 m/t	1700/1720
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN	1750/1800 m/t	1750/1800
Fish oil, crude bulk	2100/2150	1650/1700
Fish oil, crude drums	2250/2300
Fish oil, flexi tank	2350/2400
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2700/2800

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon