Weekly report - Oct 08, 2106

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Except for what prices, there was not a great deal of change in grain and oilseed prices in the US this week.  Both Soft Red Winter (SRW) and Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat prices were lower on the week with both down by about USD 5 or so a m/t. Corn soybeans and soymeal prices were all about the same as the week earlier.

 

As the week started it looked like prices would be higher as the effect of last week's stocks repot seemed to want to push things up – but that really only happened on Monday and for the rest of the week prices just drifted around and did nothing exciting.

 

Corn yields from the early harvest look to be quite good and the actual harvest quantities will be racing higher over the next couple of weeks as farmers get out in the fields in full force. Of course, the great harvest quantities are being offset a little by the high level of corn exports, as US corn is very competitive in most export markets these days.  Also, as there is not much in corn coming out of the Black Sea as yet, US corn can scoop up a good chunk of business.

 

There doesn't seem to be any good reason to anticipate any increase in corn prices in the next while. Normally US corn prices are at their low of the year about harvest time and we are well into the US corn harvest.

 

Not too much exciting happening to soybeans and soymeal although there is quite it of talk that yields so far are actually higher than had been expected. But then we will need higher yields if the current level of soybean export sales keeps up – like corn, soybean export sales are well ahead of early forecasts but these strong sales are expected to tail off a little in coming weeks.

 

Soybeans have been trying to move prices higher but it is very difficult to get prices up during the harvest, especially with higher yields being seen. For now, there probably will not be any major price rally in US soybeans.

 

Crop condition --- USA and France

 

Condition USA Oct 04, 2016	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Corn	2	6	19	53	20
Soybeans	2	5	19	54	20
Sorghum	1	5	28	52	14
Harvested	Oct 04 2016	Five year average
Corn	24%	27%
Soybeans	26%	27%
Sorghum	41%	36%
Winter wheat planted	43%	45%
Condition France Oct 03, 2016	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Corn	7	14	26	45	8
Winter crops planted	2016	2015
Wheat – soft	6%	17%
Barley	10%	27%

@USDA and France AgriMer

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$15.00/15.50	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$21/22.00	Steady	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$22/23.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$50/51.00	Steady	x
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)	$32/33.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$29/30.00	Steady	x
US Gulf China: Panamax	$28/29.00	Steady	x
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Steady	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$16/17.00	Steady	x
US PNW China: Panamax	$15/16.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$43/44.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$48/49.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$36/37.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$35/36.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$52/53.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Steady	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$28/29.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$30/31.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t	$44/45.00	Steady	X
Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$28/29.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t	$28/29.00	Steady	X
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Down $1.00	X
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Down $1.00	X
Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	X
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Steady	X
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$19.00/19.50	Steady	X
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$19.50/20.00	Steady	X
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$11/12.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t	$12/13.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)	$14/15.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$25/26.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$32/33.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$19/20.00	Up $1.00	X
Baltic Dry Index	921	Up 46	X
Baltic Capesize Index	2245	Up 237	X
Baltic Panamax Index	717	Down 9	X
Baltic Supramax Index	677	Down 2	x
Baltic Handisize Index	411	Down 10	X

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2016/January 2017

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 182/185	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 196/198	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 161/163	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 169/173	x
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 168/171	x
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 184/186	x
Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen	No prices	x
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver	USD 160/165 Jan 2017	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 155/157	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 148/151	x
Barley, feed, Argentina	USD 151/158	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 150/153	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 178/182	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 163/166	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 180/183	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 173/175	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 189/192	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 163/165	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 174/179	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 165/168	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 177>>171	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 163/165	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA	USD 365/369	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 390/394	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 371/374	x
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina	USD 337/340	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 363/366	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 335/338	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ	USD 520/525	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 387/390	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 394/397	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 410/412	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 390/394	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD  560/570 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt	USD  620/630 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD  150/155 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD  165/168 m/t	x

 

DDGS export prices into major markets in Asia continue to slide lower with CNF prices this week reported to be off by as much as USD 5 m/t. Other than exports to China, it is not expected that DDGS export shipments will drop, rather they should increase due to the lower export prices seen.

 

USA domestic prices for DDGS were down across the country with most areas reporting prices down by about USD 5 m/t but with some showing DDGS prices off by USD 15 m/t.

 

The prices for both corn gluten meal and corn gluten meal were quite steady this week – perhaps off a little from some sellers but in the main prices were steady.

 

The USDA issued their latest Grain Crushing Report this week and it shows the DDGS production in august was up by a little at 2.07 million m/t – both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed showed slightly lower production – both down by less than 1%: with CGM at 87,800 m/t and CGF at 336,900 m/t.

 

 

USA export of corn by-products – Jan to Aug 2016 – in m/t – major destinations

 

	Distillers Dried Grains -- DDGS	Corn Gluten Feed	Corn Gluten Meal
China	1,960,600
Indonesia	245,600		145,200
Japan	208,900
Korea, South	532,000
Malaysia	30,700		12,100
Philippines	97,300
Taiwan	142,800		20,100
Thailand	420,200		21,000
Vietnam	687,600		11,900
Total Asia	4,326,000		210,000
Canada	340,600	20,400	47,300
Chile			26,800
Colombia	111,300	44,400	63,100
Costa Rica	62,200
Egypt	77,400		115,100
Germany		29,400
Holland		19,100
Ireland	163,400	205,700
Israel	124,500	126,400
Mexico	1,297,500	10,500	19,800
Morocco	111,200	44,000
Pakistan	59,400
Portugal		57,900
Spain	89,200
Turkey	516,500	180,700
UK	93,900	39,300
Total all exports	7,615,100	793,900	532,700

USDA FAS GATS

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein    Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein	USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia  USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia  USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein	USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia  USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 520/530 m/t CNF Asia  USD 790/810 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia  USD 480/490 m/t CNF Asia  USD 560/580 m/t CNF Asia  USD 740/760 m/t CNF Asia

 

Depending on which report you read, the meat and bone meal prices to major buyers in Asia were either steady or a little higher. However, the trade also says that buyers' bids for later shipment are USD 20 m/t or so lower that current prices.

 

Prices for animal proteins from Australia and New Zealand were a little higher, at least that is what the sellers wanted. USA export prices were lower due to weak domestic prices in the US and quite a lot of animal protein looking for a home.

 

USA domestic feathermeal prices are reported to be lower but this has not moved into the export prices as yet with Asia CNF prices higher on the week.

 

Other than the odd little rally in the market, the overall trend for prices has got to be to lower levels. You don't see any market experts calling for higher prices in coming days ---- there just don't seem to be any bullish factors. At least in the US, the supply is very good and is expected to continue to run ahead of demand for a few more weeks.   

 

 

USA Export of animal protein meals – Jan to Aug, 2016 – in m/t – major destinations

 

	Meat and bone meal Incl poultry and pork meal	Feathermeal
Canada	43,900	10,200
Chile		8,000
China	38,000	4,600
Germany	11,600
Holland	7,900
Honduras	7,800
Indonesia	82,800	19,200
Mexico	44,400
Philippines	8,500
Vietnam	18,900	745
Total all exports	283,100	43,000

USDA FAS GATS

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Another week with very little to say about the Peru fishmeal situation – no fish landed at all in the south – nothing new on the northern fishing situation, neither biomass nor quota.  The next we will hear from IMARPE will be late October and then in early November, according to the trade, there will be some exploratory fishing and after all that then a new quota. According to MSI Ceres's report this week, the experts seem to feel that the quota could be between 1.5 and 1.8 million m/t of catch which will be 350,000 to 420,000 m/t of fishmeal.

 

With up to 200,000 m/t of fishmeal said to be presold there may just be a rush to cover some more fishmeal needs in advance of the new fishing season.

 

Pricewise, there is little happening at present as there is nothing old left to sell and not much activity in bids and offers for the new stock fishmeal ---- all is just very, very quiet.

 

The latest Peru export figures are available and they show that China is still about 72% of Peru's fishmeal export business with Germany the number two buyer at 10.5% of exports add in another 10% for other Asian destinations and that cover almost all of Peru's exports. Total 2016 fishmeal exports from Peru to the end of August were at 470,000 m/t.

. 

 

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD	Cost per protein unit
Herring fishmeal	72% protein	1,820	25.27
Danish fishmeal	64% protein	1,505	23.51
Peru fishmeal	64% protein	1,570	24.53
Chile fishmeal	67% protein	1,670	24.92
Iceland fishmeal	70% protein	1,880	26.85

 

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
	New crop prices for the Peru November fishing quota
65% protein	1330/1340 m/t
65/66 protein	1360/1370 m/t
67% protein standard steam	1400/1410 m/t	1350/1370
67% protein 150 TVN	1440/1450 m/t	1380/1400
67% protein 120 TVN	1480/1490 m/t	1450/1470
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1550/1560 m/t	1500/1520
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN	1560/1580 m/t	1550/1570
Fish oil, crude bulk	2150/2200	1700/1750
Fish oil, crude drums	2250/2300
Fish oil, flexi tank	2400/2450
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2800/3000

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon