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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Except for what prices, there was not a great deal of change in grain and oilseed prices in the US this week. Both Soft Red Winter (SRW) and Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat prices were lower on the week with both down by about USD 5 or so a m/t. Corn soybeans and soymeal prices were all about the same as the week earlier.
As the week started it looked like prices would be higher as the effect of last week's stocks repot seemed to want to push things up – but that really only happened on Monday and for the rest of the week prices just drifted around and did nothing exciting.
Corn yields from the early harvest look to be quite good and the actual harvest quantities will be racing higher over the next couple of weeks as farmers get out in the fields in full force. Of course, the great harvest quantities are being offset a little by the high level of corn exports, as US corn is very competitive in most export markets these days. Also, as there is not much in corn coming out of the Black Sea as yet, US corn can scoop up a good chunk of business.
There doesn't seem to be any good reason to anticipate any increase in corn prices in the next while. Normally US corn prices are at their low of the year about harvest time and we are well into the US corn harvest.
Not too much exciting happening to soybeans and soymeal although there is quite it of talk that yields so far are actually higher than had been expected. But then we will need higher yields if the current level of soybean export sales keeps up – like corn, soybean export sales are well ahead of early forecasts but these strong sales are expected to tail off a little in coming weeks.
Soybeans have been trying to move prices higher but it is very difficult to get prices up during the harvest, especially with higher yields being seen. For now, there probably will not be any major price rally in US soybeans.
Crop condition --- USA and France
Condition USA Oct 04, 2016 | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
Corn | 2 | 6 | 19 | 53 | 20 |
Soybeans | 2 | 5 | 19 | 54 | 20 |
Sorghum | 1 | 5 | 28 | 52 | 14 |
Harvested |
Oct 04 2016 |
Five year average |
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Corn | 24% | 27% |
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Soybeans | 26% | 27% |
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Sorghum | 41% | 36% |
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Winter wheat planted | 43% | 45% |
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Condition France Oct 03, 2016 | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
Corn | 7 | 14 | 26 | 45 | 8 |
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Winter crops planted | 2016 | 2015 |
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Wheat – soft | 6% | 17% |
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Barley | 10% | 27% |
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@USDA and France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $15.00/15.50 | Down $1.00 | x |
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $50/51.00 | Steady | x |
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
US PNW China: Panamax | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | x |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $48/49.00 | Steady | x |
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France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $52/53.00 | Steady | X |
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Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
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Brazil to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
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Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.00/19.50 | Steady | X |
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | X |
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
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Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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Baltic Dry Index | 921 | Up 46 | X |
Baltic Capesize Index | 2245 | Up 237 | X |
Baltic Panamax Index | 717 | Down 9 | X |
Baltic Supramax Index | 677 | Down 2 | x |
Baltic Handisize Index | 411 | Down 10 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2016/January 2017
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 182/185 | x |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 196/198 | x |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 161/163 | x |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 169/173 | x |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 168/171 | x |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 184/186 | x |
Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | No prices | x |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 160/165 Jan 2017 | x |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 155/157 | x |
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Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 148/151 | x |
Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 151/158 | x |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 150/153 | x |
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 178/182 | x |
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Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 163/166 | x |
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 180/183 | x |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 173/175 | x |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 189/192 | x |
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 163/165 | x |
Corn, FOB France | USD 174/179 | x |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 165/168 | x |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 177>>171 | x |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 163/165 | x |
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Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 365/369 | x |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 390/394 | x |
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 371/374 | x |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 337/340 | x |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 363/366 | x |
Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 335/338 | x |
Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ | USD 520/525 | x |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 387/390 | x |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 394/397 | x |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 410/412 | x |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 390/394 | x |
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Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 560/570 m/t | x |
Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt | USD 620/630 m/t | x |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 150/155 m/t | x |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 165/168 m/t | x |
DDGS export prices into major markets in Asia continue to slide lower with CNF prices this week reported to be off by as much as USD 5 m/t. Other than exports to China, it is not expected that DDGS export shipments will drop, rather they should increase due to the lower export prices seen.
USA domestic prices for DDGS were down across the country with most areas reporting prices down by about USD 5 m/t but with some showing DDGS prices off by USD 15 m/t.
The prices for both corn gluten meal and corn gluten meal were quite steady this week – perhaps off a little from some sellers but in the main prices were steady.
The USDA issued their latest Grain Crushing Report this week and it shows the DDGS production in august was up by a little at 2.07 million m/t – both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed showed slightly lower production – both down by less than 1%: with CGM at 87,800 m/t and CGF at 336,900 m/t.
USA export of corn by-products – Jan to Aug 2016 – in m/t – major destinations
| Distillers Dried Grains -- DDGS | Corn Gluten Feed | Corn Gluten Meal |
China | 1,960,600 |
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Indonesia | 245,600 |
| 145,200 |
Japan | 208,900 |
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Korea, South | 532,000 |
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Malaysia | 30,700 |
| 12,100 |
Philippines | 97,300 |
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Taiwan | 142,800 |
| 20,100 |
Thailand | 420,200 |
| 21,000 |
Vietnam | 687,600 |
| 11,900 |
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Total Asia | 4,326,000 |
| 210,000 |
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Canada | 340,600 | 20,400 | 47,300 |
Chile |
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| 26,800 |
Colombia | 111,300 | 44,400 | 63,100 |
Costa Rica | 62,200 |
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Egypt | 77,400 |
| 115,100 |
Germany |
| 29,400 |
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Holland |
| 19,100 |
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Ireland | 163,400 | 205,700 |
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Israel | 124,500 | 126,400 |
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Mexico | 1,297,500 | 10,500 | 19,800 |
Morocco | 111,200 | 44,000 |
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Pakistan | 59,400 |
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Portugal |
| 57,900 |
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Spain | 89,200 |
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Turkey | 516,500 | 180,700 |
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UK | 93,900 | 39,300 |
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Total all exports | 7,615,100 | 793,900 | 532,700 |
USDA FAS GATS
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia |
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia |
Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 520/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 790/810 m/t CNF Asia |
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 480/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 740/760 m/t CNF Asia |
Depending on which report you read, the meat and bone meal prices to major buyers in Asia were either steady or a little higher. However, the trade also says that buyers' bids for later shipment are USD 20 m/t or so lower that current prices.
Prices for animal proteins from Australia and New Zealand were a little higher, at least that is what the sellers wanted. USA export prices were lower due to weak domestic prices in the US and quite a lot of animal protein looking for a home.
USA domestic feathermeal prices are reported to be lower but this has not moved into the export prices as yet with Asia CNF prices higher on the week.
Other than the odd little rally in the market, the overall trend for prices has got to be to lower levels. You don't see any market experts calling for higher prices in coming days ---- there just don't seem to be any bullish factors. At least in the US, the supply is very good and is expected to continue to run ahead of demand for a few more weeks.
USA Export of animal protein meals – Jan to Aug, 2016 – in m/t – major destinations
| Meat and bone meal Incl poultry and pork meal | Feathermeal |
Canada | 43,900 | 10,200 |
Chile |
| 8,000 |
China | 38,000 | 4,600 |
Germany | 11,600 |
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Holland | 7,900 |
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Honduras | 7,800 |
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Indonesia | 82,800 | 19,200 |
Mexico | 44,400 |
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Philippines | 8,500 |
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Vietnam | 18,900 | 745 |
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Total all exports | 283,100 | 43,000 |
USDA FAS GATS
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Another week with very little to say about the Peru fishmeal situation – no fish landed at all in the south – nothing new on the northern fishing situation, neither biomass nor quota. The next we will hear from IMARPE will be late October and then in early November, according to the trade, there will be some exploratory fishing and after all that then a new quota. According to MSI Ceres's report this week, the experts seem to feel that the quota could be between 1.5 and 1.8 million m/t of catch which will be 350,000 to 420,000 m/t of fishmeal.
With up to 200,000 m/t of fishmeal said to be presold there may just be a rush to cover some more fishmeal needs in advance of the new fishing season.
Pricewise, there is little happening at present as there is nothing old left to sell and not much activity in bids and offers for the new stock fishmeal ---- all is just very, very quiet.
The latest Peru export figures are available and they show that China is still about 72% of Peru's fishmeal export business with Germany the number two buyer at 10.5% of exports add in another 10% for other Asian destinations and that cover almost all of Peru's exports. Total 2016 fishmeal exports from Peru to the end of August were at 470,000 m/t.
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European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD | Cost per protein unit |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,820 | 25.27 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,505 | 23.51 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,570 | 24.53 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,670 | 24.92 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,880 | 26.85 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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New crop prices for the Peru November fishing quota
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65% protein | 1330/1340 m/t |
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65/66 protein | 1360/1370 m/t |
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67% protein standard steam | 1400/1410 m/t | 1350/1370 |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1440/1450 m/t | 1380/1400 |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1480/1490 m/t | 1450/1470 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1560 m/t | 1500/1520 |
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1560/1580 m/t | 1550/1570 |
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Fish oil, crude bulk | 2150/2200 | 1700/1750 |
Fish oil, crude drums | 2250/2300 |
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Fish oil, flexi tank | 2400/2450 |
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Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2800/3000 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon
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