Corporate Office: Centre of Commerce 200B
PO Box N-3944, Nassau Bahamas
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Representation Office
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, France 13210
Phone: 33 9 7044 4881 Mobile: 33 6 8068 4564
Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
After quite a period of steady to lower prices, this week corn prices decided to make a strong move higher – the first major move in about three months. Much of the strength in corn prices seemed to come from the very good overall export sales and forecasts of continues strong exports couple with ending stocks that some see a bullish. The fact that the corn crop this year should be amazing had no effect on the prices as everyone seemed to get on the rally bandwagon.
With US corn currently being the most cost effective corn in world markets, export demand is expected to continue strong --- with Black Sea new crop corn just starting to be seen in the market, there is still time for US corn to fill a lot of needs.
The US corn harvest has been slowed a bit by rains in some areas but is still running at about average harvest levels
On the futures side of things, futures probably rallied a little more than good sense would have as computer trading rushed to cover shorts as the market moved up and this just tended to push prices even higher. Corn futures ended up by about USd 5 m/t on the week while the cash prices for corn were not up quite as far – perhaps USD 3 to 5 m/t.
For once soybeans and soymeal did not lead the market and were not all that exciting this week. Although, the excitement in corn futures did spill into soybeans on Friday and pushed the market up by a couple of dollars after price had been steady all week.
The soybean crop this year is going to be massive and even with lots of export sales there is still not going to be any shortage of US soybeans for domestic or export use. It looks like soybean exports in 2016/17 could top the USDA export estimates. There is also reported to be a delegation from China in the US looking to buy soybeans but this could just be more rumour than fact. None the less, export sales are very good ---- but not as good as the 2016 soybean crop.
Most experts feel that the current little price rally will be very short lived for soybeans/soymeal as the supply should just overwhelm the demand for now.
As a side note – the biggest moves in price this week were in the wheat market where Soft Red Winter was up by USD 9 m/t or so and Hard Red Winter up by about USD 6 m/t. Trade reports say that much of the rally was related to covering short positions on the futures market but also point out that, historically speaking, US wheat prices do normally start to move higher this time of year --- after all US wheat prices have changed little over the past three months – perhaps it is time for a change in trend.
Crop condition --- USA and France
| Condition USA Oct 09, 2016 | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
| Corn | 2 | 6 | 19 | 53 | 20 |
| Soybeans | 2 | 5 | 19 | 54 | 20 |
| Sorghum | 1 | 5 | 29 | 51 | 14 |
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Harvested |
Oct 9 2016 |
Five year average |
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| Corn | 38% | 38% |
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| Soybeans | 56% | 47% |
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| Sorghum | 49% | 42% |
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| Winter wheat planted | 60% | 60% |
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| Condition France Oct 10, 2016 | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
| Corn | 7 | 14 | 26 | 45 | 8 |
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| Harvested | 2016 | 2015 |
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| Corn | 23 | 33 |
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| Winter crops planted | 2016 | 2015 |
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| Wheat – soft | 23% | 34% |
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| Barley | 39% | 54% |
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@USDA and France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
As a matter of info I have some new freight price indications from a new source this week. I have not included them in the list below as I may not be able to obtain them on a regular basis.
Argentina to Bangladesh, 50,000 m/t wheat – 3,000 m/t discharge -- $25/26 m/t
Argentina to Egypt, 50,000 m/t corn – 5,000 m/t disch - $20/22 m/t
Argentina to Europe, 45,000 m/t soymeal – 8,000 m/t disch - $19/20 m/t
Brazil to Egypt, 50,000 m/t corn – 5,000 m/t disch - $16/18 m/t
Brazil to Egypt, 25,000 m/t corn – 4,500 m/t disch - $21/22 m/t
Brazil to Europe, 45,000 m/t soymeal --- 8,000 m/t disch - $15/16 m/t
Brazil to Europe, 25,000 m/t soybeans – 8,000 m/t disch - $18/19 m/t
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $16.00/16.50 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $47/48.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $52/53.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.00/19.50 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 892 | Down 29 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2018 | Down 227 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 819 | Up 102 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 674 | Down 3 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 411 | No change | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2016/January 2017
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 191/194 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 200/203 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 164/167 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 172/175 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 169/172 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 185/187 | X |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | No prices | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 164/169 Jan 2017 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 159/164 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 154/156 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 151/156 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 149/152 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 178/182 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 167/170 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 177/181 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 179/182 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 192/195 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 165/168 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 170/178 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 168/172 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 169/171 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 166/169 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 368/372 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 393/397 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 362/366 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 339/342 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 358/363 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 333/336 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ | USD 525/530 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 391/395 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 393/396 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 412/415 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 381/385 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 566/572 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt | USD 630/640 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 153/156 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 158/162 m/t | x |
Depending on who you talk to the prices for DDGS this week were either up or perhaps down. Most reports seem to have DDGS prices down by USD 7 to 10 m/t but there are a couple of reports that the export prices had moved up a little. I suspect that only nearby prices may be a tad higher and this due to export loading lineups. The new business for export has been quiet as buyer are all looking for lower prices. US DDGS production is expected to increase in coming weeks and this could keep a lid on any price increases for both export and domestic markets.
The rally in corn prices this week has not as yet had an effect on corn by-products prices but if the rally does continue it is certain to push prices higher. Although with so much soymeal out there it is difficult to see DDGS and corn gluten meal prices getting much stronger.
In the US domestic market the USDA reports that corn gluten feed prices were up by about USD 7 m/t on average while corn gluten meal was even or perhaps up USD 2 m/t.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 520/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 790/810 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 460/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia |
There was not much in the way of excitement in the animal protein markets this week – some export prices were up a little and some down a little. The Jacobsen report was saying that business to Indonesia could drop off due to large supplies of vegetable proteins. If so, there could be some downward pressure on MBM export prices. The trend for the moment does look more likely to be down in prices rather than up. However, Jacobsen does report that the demand for both poultry meal and pork meal is quite good in Asia markets as fishmeal is just too expensive.
There just does not seen to be any good reason for animal protein prices to decide to move higher – there is just too much competition from more than adequate supplies of soymeal and lower prices for corn gluten meal.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Also with Peru fishmeal, there is very little excitement for now. While there are buyers out there, they seem to be bidding about USD 50 m/t below where sellers are prepared to sell new production. According to one trade report, the forward sales of Peru fishmeal could be quite a bit higher than recent estimates, which would be a good reason for producers to be cautious about further sales.
There has also been quite a bit of comment regarding spawning in the per trade reports and some feel that the next fishing season may well be delayed due to spawning being a little later this year. The government does not want to start the new fishing season when spawning is very heavy.
The IFFO fishmeal industry conference is coming up in Bangkok on October 24 to 26 and perhaps this meeting of buyers and sellers will lead to another flurry of fishmeal business for Peru, only time will tell. Of course, if the new quota has been announced by then then all the business may have been booked.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD | Cost per protein unit |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,795 | 24.93 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,485 | 23.20 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,575 | 24.61 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,675 | 25.00 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,870 | 26.71 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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New crop prices for the Peru November fishing quota
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| 65% protein | 1330/1340 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1360/1370 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1400/1410 m/t | 1350/1370 |
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1420/1430 m/t | 1380/1400 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1470/1480 m/t | 1450/1470 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1520/1540 m/t | 1500/1520 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1570/1580 m/t | 1550/1570 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2150/2200 | 1700/1750 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2250/2300 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2400/2450 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2800/3000 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon
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