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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
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Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
This week's report is coming from hot and steamy Kolkata (Calcutta) India and may be just a little shorter than usual – but then it is always a little harder to keep up when you are traveling. Nest week's report will be from Mumbai (Bombay).
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Once again this week, corn had quite a calm week, although there were some small attempts at a price rally on the corn futures market. Corn prices really haven't done too much over the past couple of weeks. Probably due to the harvest coming along quite well and the yields so far looking better than some experts had said that they were.
The problem facing corn exports, at present, is in trying to find the internal US transit to move he corn to the export ports – rail rates are up, barge rates are up – as everyone fights for the same grain logistics.
Export corn price will probably move up quicker than domestic prices due to the logistics but the US is very good at overcoming backlogs and will handle this as they handle every year's harvest crunch.
One other point on corn, we are probably now at the point where we have seen the lowest priced of the year – at least historically speaking we should have.
As usual, soybeans and soymeal were higher on the week as export demand just doesn't seem to what to slow down. China is reported to have inked a good supply of US soybeans, still it was much less than was booked last year. Soybeans were up by USD 7 or 8 m/t on the week with soymeal following at up USD 6 to 7 m/t.
US wheat prices were very quiet on the week too – so all the excitement was with soybean/soymeal this week.
Crop condition --- USA and France
| Condition USA Oct 18, 2016 | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
| Corn | 2 | 5 | 19 | 54 | 20 |
| Soybeans | 2 | 5 | 19 | 54 | 20 |
| Sorghum | 1 | 5 | 29 | 51 | 14 |
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Harvested |
Oct 18 2016 |
Five year average |
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| Corn | 54% | 49% |
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| Soybeans | 73% | 63% |
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| Sorghum | 58% | 49% |
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| Winter wheat planted | 73% | 73% |
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| Condition France Oct 17, 2016 | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
| Corn | 7 | 14 | 26 | 45 | 8 |
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| Harvested | 2016 | 2015 |
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| Corn | 39 | 52 |
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| Winter crops planted | 2016 | 2015 |
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| Wheat – soft | 43% | 52% |
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| Wheat - hard | 2% | 4% |
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| Barley | 61% | 73% |
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@USDA and France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $16.50/17.00 | Up $0.50 | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $51/52.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $48/49.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $52/53.00 | Steady | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.00/19.50 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $2£/24.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 842 | Down 50 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1575 | Down 443 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 915 | Up 96 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 700 | Up 26 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 427 | Up 16 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2016/January 2017
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 187/190 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 199/202 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 169/172 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 175/178 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 171/174 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 184/186 | x |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | No prices | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 168/170 Jan 2017 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 162/165 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 153/155 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 149/152 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 151/154 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 177/180 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 167/169 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 176/187 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 179/182 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 191/194 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 167/170 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 177/179 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 170/173 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 169/171 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 164/168 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 365/368 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 490/493 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 363/367 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 345/348 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 358/363 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 336/339 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ | USD 525/530 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 388/392 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 396/401 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 414/417 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 400/405 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 555/560 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt | USD 620/630 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 150/155 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 168/173 m/t | x |
There seems to be some difference of opinion this week on exactly what has happened to DDGS prices in the USA – the USDA's weekly price reports continue to show DDGS prices moving lower by USD 5 to 10 m/t while most trade reports have export DDGS up by USD 10 or so per m/t. The traders are quoting higher railway freight rates in the US which is pushing up the export prices while the USDA is more concerned with local prices rather than export prices.
One reason for higher railway rates in the US is the volume of the current US crop and the very, very high demand for rail transport. This will be seen in the export elevators too as export grain demand grows with the current very low grain and by-product prices.
From the USDA point of view, the price for corn gluten feed was down on the week by about USD 6 m/t on average but the USDA shows that corn gluten meal prices in the USA were up by about USD 15 m/t, which will certainly push export prices higher.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feather meal, 78/80 protein | USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feather meal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 520/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 790/810 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feather meal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 460/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia |
Reports from Asia say the buyers are willing to pay a little higher this week, at least for meat and bone meal. Trade reports say that business has picked up to both China and Indonesia and that this is perking the market up a little. Both Australian and New Zealand MBM is said to have moved up by USD 10 to 20 m/t, at least that is what the sellers want and what some buyers are willing to pay to get quick delivery from OZ/NZ.
Both feather meal and poultry meal prices to Asia are reported to be a little higher this week but not much has been seen in new business.
However, higher Asia prices aside, US domestic prices look to be slipping lower with meat and bone meal being quite weak due to large supplies available in the US. Some US experts feel that we are probably at the bottom of the market (or is that just hope) and that there is some chance for price to move up in coming weeks.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
I am afraid that there is nothing much to say about fishmeal this week as all the important fishmeal people are gathering for the IFFO meeting in Asia and have not been issuing any trade reports for the week.
Perhaps next week when the conference is over and all the deals have been made, then we will have an exciting week of trade reports --- but for now there is nothing to report.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD | Cost per protein unit |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,780 | 24.72 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,470 | 22.97 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,575 | 24.61 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,675 | 25.00 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,840 | 26.28 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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New crop prices for the Peru November fishing quota
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| 65% protein | 1330/1340 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1360/1370 m/t | 1300/1320 |
| 67% protein standard steam | 1400/1410 m/t | 1350/1370 |
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1440/1450 m/t | 1380/1400 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1480/1490 m/t | 1450/1470 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1560 m/t | 1500/1520 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1560/1570 m/t | 1550/1570 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2150/2200 | 1700/1750 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2250/2300 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2400/2450 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2800/3000 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon
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