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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 01, 2017
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
This week's report may be a little shorter than usual as I have travelling all week – Geneva and Rome – so have not had the time to keep up with everything.
So, how was that for the week!!! Corn process up by USD 6 to 7 m/t, soybeans up by USD 14 to 15 m/t, soymeal up by USD 11 to 12 m/t and then there was wheat with winter wheat being up by USD 17 to 18 m/t while the concerns for spring wheat pushed prices up by USD 35 to 37 m/t.
This was kind of a triple witching weekend with the USDA report and then the 4th of July holiday on Tuesday on the US and many people taking Monday off to get a nice long four-day weekend. On long weekends grain prices do tend to get a little more excited than in a normal week as no one wants to be exposed at all for four days, just too much price risk.
With the USDA report the acreage for both soybeans and wheat were bullish and got the rally moving while corn should have been bearish but the excitement in the market pulled corn prices higher too.
There really wasn't any reason for corn to move higher and with good crop weather expected for next week then we could see corn move lower again.
With the soybean acreage numbers coming in at less than expected and the futures being a little oversold, it didn't take much to push prices up quickly. However, with good weather expected for next week will these week's rally hold.
As for wheat, acreage much smaller than expected coupled with serious weather situation for spring wheat pushed prices much higher and contrary to corn and soybeans these price increases could just hold, as the rally is fact based rather than speculative.
Crop progress and condition --- USA and France
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $13.00/13.50 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $51/52.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $10/11.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.0 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.00/20.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $25/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $25/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $30/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 901 | Up 31 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1086 | Up 99 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1091 | Down 47 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 754 | Up 10 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 467 | Up 16 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR July 2017/September 2017
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 215/219 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein -NOLA | USD 264/269 high protein premium | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 175/179 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 184/188 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 184/188 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 194/196 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 193/197 new crop | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 168/173 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 165/167 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 158/164 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 159/162 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 200/205 | X |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 161/165 | X |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 167/170 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 144/149 Aug/Sep | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 155/160 Aug/Sep | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 169/173 | X |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 201/206 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 171/174 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 168/172 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 180/184 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 135/139 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 327/332 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 352/357 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 332/337 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 300/305 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 327/332 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 296/301 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB India | USD 332/337 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 356/361 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 353/358 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 357/362 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 367/372 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 600/610 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 134/137 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 157/160 m/t | x |
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Prices were weaker for corn by-products this week, although it does not always show in export prices. Corn gluten meal is down by about USD 10 in the domestic market but this is not seen as yet in export price levels. DDGS export prices are a little lower on the week but may push higher next week with the rally in corn prices after the USDA report.
In the US domestic market, both corn gluten meal and DDGS were lower while corn gluten feed prices were steady.
Most of the export buying interest is out a couple of months as there is very little in loading capacity available over the next few weeks and buyer don't much want to pay a premium to try to get a nearby shipment.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50% protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60% protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80% protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/810 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 520/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 620/630 m/t CNF Asia USD 860/880 m/t CNF Asia |
Animal protein prices were lower again this week – the rally in US grains/oilseeds may change that next week with prices up very strongly after the USDA planting report. There has been some comment that increased buying in Asia could move prices higher but that was certainly not the situation this week as most everything slid a little lower – at least USD 10 m/t.
There was also the comment in the Jacobsen report this week that a slowdown in demand from the pet food industry is the reason for the drop in poultry meal prices. This said to just be a seasonal slowdown rather than any change in use for poultry meal.
I guess that with the weekend rally we can expect higher export prices from the US next week.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The landings in the north up to late this week have reached 2.2 million m/t with the catch not being all that good due to bad weather and mini-bans – but we are still chugging along trying to get to 2.8 million m/t by the end of July.
Peru was closed on Thursday and for some on Friday too so business has not been all that active and there are no reported changes in market prices.
The latest China import stats show that Peru represents about 60% of all China's fishmeal imports followed by Vietnam at just under 7% and then there are another 18 or so countries that ship smaller quantities of fishmeal to China --- Peru is really the number one player in the market.
With about a three day week in Peru there is little new to say – just producers trying to ship out the orders that they have on hand while working hard to try to catch the last of the quota.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,420 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,320 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,250 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,300 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,380 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1000/1020 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1030/1040 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1050/1070 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1250/1260 m/t | 1290/1310 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1300/1320 m/t | 1310/1330 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1350/1370 m/t | 1350/1370 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1400/1410 m/t | 1370/1390 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1200/1250 | 1100/1150 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1300/1350 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1400/1450 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1600/1700 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon
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