-------------------------
Corporate Office: Centre of Commerce 200B, 1 Bay St.,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas
-------------------------
Representation Office:
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St. Remy de Provence, France 13210
Phone: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564
Fax: +33.4.5774.7575 SKYPE:.....bacon39A
WWW:.hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Email:.. wbacon@hammersmith.biz
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 08, 2017
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Well, that was quite an exciting week for prices – soybeans up by at least USD 20 m/t, soymeal up by 22 to 24 m/t and corn, not quite so strong, up by about USD 5 m/t. The rally in spring wheat prices slowed to a crawl but winter wheat was up by USD 5 or 6 m/t.
The USDA planting report was the force behind the strong rally in soybeans with the lower expected planning acreage pushing prices higher. There was also a small drop in the overall soybean condition in the crop quality report and then there are also reports of expected hot, dry weather that could affect the crop ----- all very good factors for pushing soybean prices higher. According to the weekend trade reports, other than acreage it is all weather, weather, weather for soybeans.
While corn prices were higher, they didn't have the same strength as soybeans. Prices moved up on hot, dry US weather and the expectation of a drop in crop condition in next week's crop quality report. There was also some concern about the corn crop in the Ukraine that some felt could lead to higher world corn prices.
There were also stories in trade reports that US farmers were selling a lot of corn on the small rally and that this farm selling may have limited the rally a little.
Next week is the latest USDA monthly report, so we will see what that does to prices – will the rally continue or will the report be bearish.
Crop progress and condition --- USA and France
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $13.00/13.50 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $51/52.00 | Steady | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $10/11.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.00/20.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $25/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $25/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $30/32.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index | 822 | Down 79 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 753 | Down 333 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1062 | Down 29 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 732 | Down 22 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 471 | Up 4 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR July 2017/September 2017
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 222/231 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein -NOLA | USD 267/273 high protein premium | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 180/183 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 186/190 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 183/187 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 197/200 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 197/200 new crop | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 171/176 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 169/171 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 156/160 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 157/160 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 210/215 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 166/168 | X |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 175/177 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 152/155 Aug/Sep | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 154/157 Aug/Sep | x |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 172/175 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 198/206 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 170/173 | x |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 167/170 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 197/200 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 143/146 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 360/363 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 385/388 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 348/351 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 328/331 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 343/346 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 316/319 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB India | USD 360/365 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 383/386 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 379/382 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 383/386 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 367/372 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 620/630 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 144/147 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 164/167 m/t | X |
|
|
|
|
It was quite a strong week for corn by product prices with everything moving higher as prices tended to follow what soymeal prices were doing. Domestic US soymeal prices were up by USD 22 m/t or more and this pushed up the asking prices for most corn by products.
According to the USDA, corn gluten feed prices were up by as much as USD 20 m/t in some parts of the US with corn gluten meal up by at least USD 10 m/t and DDGS seen to be USD 10 m/t.
The export prices for all byproducts were also very strong with DDGS said to be up by about USD 10 m/t with similar export price increases seen in CGM and CGF.
Some of the domestic price increases were seen in the export markets at once with all corn byproducts moving higher. Depending on what soymeal prices do in the next week there is probably room for all byproduct prices to move higher as they are now priced a little under the normal relationship against soymeal.
The USDA issued its Grain Crushing report this week and it shows corn use for ethanol is up 3 percent from last month but up 6 percent on the year. DDGS, an ethanol by product, is also up on the month by about 9 percent over last month and 3 percent up on the year – May production for DDGS was at 1.9 million m/t. Corn gluten meal production was about unchanged at 92,000 m/t while corn gluten feed production was down a little at 341,000 m/t for the month. As a comparison, the US soymeal production for feed use was at 3.4 million m/t for May down 2% on 2016 production.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50% protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60% protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80% protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/810 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 620/630 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
Animal protein export prices in to major markets in Asia moved lower again this week with meat and bone meal prices said to be down by USD 10 to 20 m/t with buyers bidding even lower. Buyers are convinced that prices should be moving lower. However, recent weakness in both feathermeal and poultry meal prices has brought buyers back to the game and demand is strong.
It is interesting to note that even with US export prices a little lower, the US domestic market for meat and bone meal seems to want to move higher. While prices for spot business are higher there are some bargains to be seen in buying out a few weeks.
US experts on animal proteins feel that the price trend is now up – following soymeal prices.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in Peru is still moving along, the north is now up to about 2.3 million m/t against the 2.8 mm/t quota with the south at 180,000 m/t against a quota of 515,000 m/t. While the numbers do continue to increase, the daily catch levels have been much smaller due to poor fishing weather. The southern quota has ended, as of June 30, with the new quota of 515,000 coming into effect at once.
There is not too much to say on prices as business has been slow – with the poor fishing, producers have not been too interested in offering fishmeal and as it is getting more and more likely that the northern quota will not all be landed, no one much wants to go short fishmeal.
As an aside, MSI Ceres reports that a cyber attack in Peru this week knocked out computers at the Maersk container facility in Callao which created a lot of havoc in the container loading. All is expected to be up and operating again shortly but loading and shipping has been delayed somewhat.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,430 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,320 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,240 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,290 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,400 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 65% protein | 1000/1020 m/t |
|
| 65/66 protein | 1050/1060 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1080/1090 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1210/1220 m/t | 1230/1250 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1270/1280 m/t | 1290/1310 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1300/1320 m/t | 1330/1350 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1350/1370 m/t | 1350/1370 |
|
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1200/1250 | 1100/1150 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1300/1350 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1400/1450 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1600/1700 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.