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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 15, 2017
This week's report is coming from my office computer, not the portable that seemed to cause all the formatting problems last week – I still have not found out what happened to cause the problem.
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
There has certainly been a lot of activity in grain prices in the past couple of weeks as markets are being pushed up and down depending a great deal on what the USDA has to report and how close the USDA numbers are to what the trade had been expecting.
This week, most everything moved lower – at least in the futures market: corn was down by about USD 6 m/t, soybeans by USD 4 m/t, soymeal by USD 7 m/t and even wheat was lower with spring wheat dropping USD 8 m/t and winter wheat down by almost USD 11 m/t.
That being said, while we did have a down week overall, it ended quite strongly with corn and soybeans up strongly on Friday as concerns over hot dry weather in the US Midwest stopped prices from falling further.
The bearish results of the USDA WASDE report have all fallen away as the market looks once again at the summer weather situation in the US --- and as we know from all the past exciting summers – weather can do amazing things to grain and oilseed prices.
But not only is weather a factor but, in the export markets, South American crops are becoming much more of a factor against US corn and soybeans in some destinations and as usual Black Sea corn is dominating many regional Middle East/Africa markets.
So, for a few weeks now we can expect some weather-related ups and downs in USA grain/oilseed prices --- just the same as every year.
Crop progress and condition --- USA and France
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $13.00/13.50 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $10/11.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.00/20.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $25/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $14/15.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $25/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $32/34.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $21/23.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 900 | Up 78 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 933 | Up 180 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1173 | Up 111 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 769 | Up 37 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 486 | Up 15 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR July 2017/September 2017
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 213/228 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein -NOLA | USD 257/265 high protein premium | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 183/188 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 188/193 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 190/195 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 197/200 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 189/194 new crop | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 173/177 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 169/171 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 149/153 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 159/162 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 215/220 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 162/165 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 167/170 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 154/157 Aug/Sep | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 154/158 Aug/Sep | x |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 170/175 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 197/205 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 169/173 | x |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 168/171 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 190/203 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 134/138 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 354/358 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 379/383 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 359/362 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 323/328 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 353/357 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 314/318 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB India | USD 360/365 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 377/382 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 366/372 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 381/385 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 377/382 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 600/610 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 135/142 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 176>>170 m/t | x |
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USA Corn by-product exports – Jan/May 2017 – in m/t – major destinations.
|
| Corn Gluten Feed | Corn Gluten Meal
| Distillers Dried Grains DDGS |
| Bangladesh |
|
| 29,000 |
| Cambodia |
|
| 18,000 |
| Canada |
| 19,600 | 303,100 |
| Chile |
| 35,000 | 10,500 |
| China |
|
| 294,900 |
| Colombia | 27,600 | 40,900 | 89,500 |
| Costa Rica |
|
| 38,500 |
| El Salvador |
| 4,200 | 25,000 |
| Egypt | 2,700 | 42,300 | 51,900 |
| Guatemala |
| 6,400 | 20,900 |
| Honduras |
| 3,500 | 17,900 |
| Indonesia |
| 120,800 | 237,900 |
| Ireland | 133,700 |
| 143,100 |
| Israel | 89,900 | 5,200 | 134,600 |
| Japan |
| 2,200 | 191,300 |
| Malaysia |
| 6,200 | 38,200 |
| Mexico | 12,200 | 11,800 | 903,800 |
| Morocco | 22,500 |
| 102,000 |
| New Zealand |
|
| 47,800 |
| Pakistan |
|
| 17,800 |
| Peru |
| 4,400 |
|
| Philippines |
| 1,000 | 62,700 |
| Portugal | 21,100 |
| 36,300 |
| Saudi Arabia |
|
| 25,200 |
| South Korea |
|
| 345,400 |
| Spain | 5,400 |
| 175,700 |
| Taiwan |
| 13,300 | 99,400 |
| Thailand |
| 24,100 | 295,800 |
| Turkey | 67,000 |
| 734,400 |
| UK |
|
| 97,700 |
| Vietnam |
| 3,800 | 2,000 |
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| Total exports | 383,700 | 349,900 | 4,648,600 |
@USDA GATS
According to the USDA national price recap, there was not a great deal of excitement in domestic corn by-product prices. The USDA shows corn gluten feed up by about USD 2 m/t with corn gluten meal up by about USD 3 m/t and DDGS up by USD 3 to 5 m/t.
Export prices for all three items were also a little higher on the week but much of the higher FOB prices are logistics driven as continued good export demand is keeping shipping positions tight – especially at container loading facilities.
DDGS production in the US has also slowed a little – probably the summer doldrums – which is keeping prices a little firmer. However, it is reported that buyers are bidding well below current market levels --- but with no success.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50% protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60% protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80% protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/810 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 620/630 m/t CNF Asia USD 750/800 m/t CNF Asia |
Prices for most animal proteins into Asia moved a little higher this week following the strength in soymeal that we have seen in the past couple of weeks. There is some talk of lower cattle slaughter levels in Australia and New Zealand that may help to move prices higher.
The US price for pet food grade poultry meal was very weak with US sellers able to price well below prices from Australia and New Zealand – as much as USD 70 m/t lower some say. The poultry meal prices are down strictly on a drop in demand from the US pet food industry, making this a dandy buying opportunity for high spec poultry meal.
US domestic meat and bone meal prices were higher on the week as soymeal price levels helped to move MBM prices up.
Exports are saying the animal protein prices are expected to follow along with where soymeal prices are going but perhaps lagging a few days behind with the price changes.
USA exports of animal proteins and feathermeal – Jan/May 2017 – in m/t – major destinations
|
| Meat and Bone meal -- includes pork and poultry meal | Feathermeal |
| Cambodia | 1,500 |
|
| Canada | 25,800 | 4,200 |
| Chile |
| 2,900 |
| China | 18,500 | 6,100 |
| Ecuador | 3,000 |
|
| Germany | 3,900 |
|
| Honduras | 2,100 |
|
| Indonesia | 69,000 | 13,300 |
| Mexico | 78,300 |
|
| Peru | 2,300 |
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| Thailand | 4,300 |
|
| Vietnam | 12,000 |
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| Total exports | 227,300 | 27,400 |
@USDA GATS
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The catch in Peru is certainly dropping off as we work through July – just as all the experts had been saying. In the North that catch is now up to about 2.3 million m/t and it looks like it is going to be very difficult to reach the 2.8 mm/t quota level. The total fishmeal produced should be up at about 535,000 m/t.
While business has been slow, the expected drop in fishmeal production has started to push prices higher as it looks like the total production may be as much as 100,000 m/t below the full quota level – this would be about a 15% drop in production.
According to reports from Peru, everyone has not as yet fully recovered from the cyber attack that knock out some container facilities. However, the trade says that almost everything is back to normal.
The problem facing both buyers and sellers is that, if the fishing falls short, some producers may have oversold their production which could cause delivery problems to buyers – unless fishing improves for the 15 days left in July.
Prices are definitely moving higher, as producers see that there is not much chance of surplus fishmeal stocks on hand. Buyers are going to have to pay up to get any Peruvian fishmeal at all.
You can also see in the various reports that most experts are now starting to talk about the next Peru fishing season as the current one is nearly history. There will be some exploratory voyages in August and September to look at the biomass size with results expected in October.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,475 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,355 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,250 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,300 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,430 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1100/1120 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1150/1170 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1200/1220 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1300/1320 m/t | 1290/1310 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1340/1360 m/t | 1320/1340 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1380/1400 m/t | 1350/1370 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1420/1440 m/t | 1380/1400 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1200/1250 | 1100/1150 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1300/1350 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1400/1450 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1600/1700 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon
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