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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT August 12, 2017
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Of course, the big news of the week for the US was the USDA WASDE report and its bearish projections on most everything. The projections were not really all that bearish but they were higher for estimate harvest and yields than most of the private forecasters has expected. The higher than expected yields and crops certainly crashed the market on Thursday.
Once things had calmed down a little on Friday, futures prices rallied a little but not enough to overcome the drop in prices on Thursday. As the week ended we had corn down by about USD 2.50 m/t, soybeans down by about USD 5 m/t, soymeal down by USD 6-7 m/t. Both soft and hard winter wheat were down by USD 7 to 8 m/t while spring wheat crashed by almost USD 15 m/t as the spring wheat situation may not be as bad as had been expected.
The southern corn harvest in the US is chugging along and is well ahead of the five-year average and as you can see below, the corn condition is said to be 60% good/excellent. There are still a few weeks to go before the main US corn harvest begins so things can still change.
Soybeans/soymeal looks weak and the weather for soybeans over the next while looks to be very good. At least, as of today, there doesn't seem to be any serious near-term weather risk to push soybean prices higher. Most experts don't seem to be expecting any rally in soybean prices in the short term. There is really nothing to push prices higher.
As we move along here in August, it gets less and less likely that the weather will have major effect – although too much rain could do it or even too little rain in some regions. However, at the moment, the weather does look quite good for the next couple of weeks – so, prices should tend to be steady to lower rather than higher.
Crop progress and condition --- USA and France
All other French grain crops are harvested
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $14.50/15.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady |
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| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $51/52.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | New | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Steady | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down 1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | New Panamax | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $21/23.00 | Steady | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.00/20.50 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $13/14.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $24/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $36/38.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $11/12.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | New
| X |
| Baltic Dry Index | 1138 | Up 106 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2013 | Up 376 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1256 | Up 103 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 759 | Down 5 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 466 | Down 12 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2017/October 2017
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 187/203 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein -NOLA | USD 223/237 high protein Premium | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 174/178 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190/194 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 190/193 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 191/194198 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 178/183 new crop | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 163/167 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 172/174 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 178/182 new crop Dec | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 175/178 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | X |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 160/164 | X |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 168/172 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 152/157 Oct/Nov | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 149/153 Sep/Nov | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 167/171 | X |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 180/188 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 174/176 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 171/174 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 187/190 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 161/168 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 325/329 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 350/354 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 338/341 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 308/311 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 333/337 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 315/319 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB India | USD 330/335 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 364/369 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 354/362 Sep/Oct | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 370/376 Sep/Nov | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 377/382 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 590/600 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 137/141 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 174/177 m/t | X |
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DDGS prices are up in the US domestic market as production is off a little but demand is not. Export prices didn't really change on the week as most buyers are bidding below the current market and don't seem all that willing to pay higher prices. This time of year, with the US harvest not all that far away, no one much wants to pay anything more when prices should be at or near their yearly lows – but they are not at their lows this week.
According to the USDA weekly price details for the domestic markets, corn gluten feed prices were up by about USD 5 m/t with corn gluten meal prices unchanged from last week while DDGS prices were up by USD 2 to 5 m/t.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50% protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60% protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80% protein | USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/680 m/t CNF Asia USD 830/840 m/t CNF Asia |
Export animal protein business into the major markets in Asia remains on the quiet side but prices from Australia and New Zealand are said to be trending higher as buyers are looking for shorter delivery times rather than just lower prices --- OZ/NZ are geographically closer to all major buyers. However, domestic prices in Australia are said to be lower which may put some pressure on export prices for a few weeks out.
USA export prices were steady to higher for feathermeal and poultry meal while MBM prices tended to be unchanged. Buy, as with Australia, prices a little further out could show some upward movement.
Domestic prices in the USA were a little firmer for all animal protein items as seasonal demand is stopping prices from dropping any lower and then there is the expectation of heavier export demand in coming week.
Even with the weakness in soybeans/soymeal after the USDA report, animal proteins seem to be holding their own for pricing ---- looks like steady to higher for now.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The only fishing in Peru these days is a very little in the South against the 515,000 m/t quota that runs until December 31, 2017. Just over 1,000 m/t of fish were landed last week with a total of just over 9,000 m/t landed since the new season began in early July.
According to trade reports there is a USD 50 m/t spread between current stock and next season supply with the next season being discounted by USD 50 m/t. Prices for the last of what is now available are bound to be higher as there is just not that much available. There are also some reports that some old crop business has been rolled to the next crop due to current shortage of supply.
Next season sales are reported to be about 40,000 m/t but there are some buyers who feel that the next season fishmeal prices should move quite a bit lower, so will hold off on any early purchases.
With little left to sell from Peru, most buyers who are in need are now looking to European suppliers but there is also not much European fishmeal available.
There was a report this week on the success that is being seen on the production of a high Omega-3 oil from GM Camelina seeds. It is reported that the GM seeds – modified with marine microbes – can produce oil that is very similar in quality and specifications to Omega-3 fishoil. This vegetable based Omega-3 oil is also said to be free from dioxins and heavy metals that can be a problem with fishoil. Needless to say, the camelina project is still in the research stage but there is a great deal of excitement about the potential of vegetable based Omega-3 oils.
Also reported this week is a report from Ojo Publico in Peru that claims that four large companies in Peru control 70% of the fishmeal business and pay a very low price per ton for their raw materials – according to the report, only USD 5 m/t for raw fish. The report points out that the Peruvian fishing rights system is to be reviewed in 2018 which may then make significant changes to the "system of quotas and payment for fishing rights". A former fisheries minister has said that company payments "are insufficient" while the head of the National Fisheries Society is quoted as saying that it is "a myth to say that little is paid".
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,505 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,380 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,250 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,300 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,480 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1100/1120 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1150/1170 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1200/1220 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1300/1320 m/t | 1360/1380 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1350/1370 m/t | 1380/1400 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1400/1420 m/t | 1400/1420 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | 1450/1470 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1400/1450 | 1200/1250 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1500/1550 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1600/1650 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1800/1900 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon
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