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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT August 05, 2017
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
It was another down week for prices for US grains and oilseeds – everything was lower. In the futures market, the week ended with corn down by about USD 3 m/t. soybeans down by USD 19 m/t and soy meal down USD 18 to 20 m/t. Even wheat was lower with hard red winter wheat down USD 8 m/t and soft red winter down by close to USD 9 m/t and spring wheat down by USD 8 m/t.
Much of the drop in prices in the US was weather related, caused by the rainfall in the US corn belt. However, the rainfall may not have been as large as some thought so we might just see a little price recovery on Monday.
Grain markets closed very quietly on Friday following the few frantic days before Friday. Generally speaking, the weather for the next ten days or so looks very good for the US crops – at least there doesn't appear to be anything too negative in the weather forecasts.
Soybean harvesting has begun in the southern bean areas of the US and the spring wheat harvest is chugging along in some parts of the US. Corn is doing its best to get the pollination all done.
Everyone will be waiting for the next USDA WASDE report which will be out on August 10. At present most experts seem to feel that the report could be a little bullish
Crop progress and condition --- USA and France
All other French grain crops are harvested
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $14.50/15.00 | Up $0.50 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $12/13.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up 1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.00/20.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $14/15.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $24/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $34/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $22/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | New | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1032 | Up 99 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1637 | Up 498 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1153 | Up 44 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 764 | Down 48 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 478 | Down 20 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2017/October 2017
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 191/201 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein -NOLA | USD 222/236 high protein Premium | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 179/182 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 191/195 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 193/197 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 196/198 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 184/189 new crop | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 167/171 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 177/179 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 183/187 new crop Dec | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 173/176 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | X |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 159/162 | X |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 165/170 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 151/156 Aug/Oct | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 154/158 Aug/Oct | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 172/175 | X |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 186/192 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 171/174 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 169/172 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 192/194 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 161/164 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 333/338 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 358/363 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 339/343 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 315/319 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 327/331 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 313/317 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB India | USD 340/350 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 368/373 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 358/363 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 374/378 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 377/382 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 590/600 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 135/140 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 180>>174 m/t | X |
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The USDA released their latest "grain crushing" report and there were no major surprises. Corn use was down a little from last month but up a little from last year – just minimal changes. DDGS production was down about 4% on the month – down 90,000 m/t – and down about the same on last year. Corn gluten meal production was down by about 5,000 m/t while corn gluten meal production was unchanged. Actual production was: DDGS at 1.82 million m/t, corn gluten meal at 87,000 m/t and corn gluten feed at 341,000 m/t.
According to the USDA national price report, DDGS prices were lower by 2 to 5 m/t while corn gluten meal was down by about USD 4 m/t and corn gluten feed was up by about USD 2 m/t. At the same time spot soymeal prices in the US were down by about USD 11 m/t – down much less that soymeal futures.
Export business was a little slow this week with most exporters well sold into September and buyers not too willing to buy after September as yet.
There will probably be some downward pressure on prices next week following the weak performance of corn and soybeans this week.
USA Corn By-product exports, in m/t – January to June 2017 – major destinations
| Country | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS | Corn Gluten Meal | Corn Gluten Feed |
| Canada | 370,800 | 23,000 |
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| Chile |
| 58,000 |
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| China | 313,000 |
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| Colombia | 97,900 | 49,100 | 27,600 |
| Egypt | 68,200 | 48,500 | 8,400 |
| Guatemala |
| 6,400 |
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| Indonesia | 281,300 | 135,400 |
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| Ireland | 170,700 |
| 158,100 |
| Israel | 151,100 |
| 110,000 |
| Japan | 238,100 | 2,600 |
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| Korea, South | 468,600 |
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| Malaysia |
| 8,000 |
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| Mexico | 1,079,250 | 14,400 | 22,100 |
| Morocco | 128,100 |
| 28,000 |
| Philippines | 73,700 |
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| Portugal |
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| 21,100 |
| Spain | 191,400 |
| 5,400 |
| Taiwan | 122,700 | 15,600 |
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| Thailand | 351,800 | 26,300 |
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| Turkey | 834,100 |
| 116,500 |
| UK | 123,300 |
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@USDA GATS
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50% protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60% protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80% protein | USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/810 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 520/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/680 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices into Asia were mainly steady this week with not much in the way of buying interest seen in the market. However, poultry meal prices made a move higher probably due to buyers spotting a very good value in poultry meal and demand just moved prices higher.
USA domestic animal protein prices are reported to all be a little higher as demand in the US has picked up but with the weakness seen in soymeal prices this week it will be very difficult for MBM and other animal proteins to show much price strength.
It is difficult to imagine any sharp rally in animal protein prices at this moment as all vegetable proteins slip lower.
USA Animal Protein product exports, in m/t – January to June 2017 – major destinations.
| Country | Feathermeal | Meat and bone meal
|
| Canada | 7,300 | 31,900 |
| Chile | 4,100 |
|
| China | 7,800 | 22,400 |
| Ecuador |
| 3,600 |
| Germany |
| 3,900 |
| Indonesia | 16,000 | 78,300 |
| Mexico |
| 166,900 |
| Peru |
| 3,100 |
| Thailand |
| 7,100 |
| Vietnam |
| 14,200 |
@USDA-GATS
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Looking at the latest numbers from Peru it looks like the fishing came up about 445,000 m/t short of the quota – just over 100,000 m/t of fishmeal short. So now all eyes will turn to the next fishing season and government officials have implied that, based on their estimate of yearly catch, the next quota will be about 2 million m/t or more.
The word in Peru is that some sellers are caught short by the 100,000 m/t of missing fishmeal --- seems that there were some people who oversold a tad and now must scurry to cover or make arrangements with their buyers to move off to a future shipment period.
Trade reports in Peru say that there is little or nothing in the way of unsold fishmeal available and producers are busily shipping out all the goods they sold earlier. If and when any small parcels of fishmeal come available they are certainly expected to be at a higher price. The market does expect that some producers should have a little stock still to sell but producers don't want to do anything until they have shipped all their backlog of orders and determined if they do have anything left to sell.
Buyers are probably going to have to expect higher prices for fishmeal in the next weeks as no one seems to have much available for sale and not just in Peru – most world markets are short of fishmeal at present.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,510 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,375 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,250 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,300 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,490 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1100/1120 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1150/1170 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1200/1220 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1320/1350 m/t | 1360/1380 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1370/1390 m/t | 1380/1400 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1420/1440 m/t | 1400/1420 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1460/1480 m/t | 1440/1460 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1400/1450 | 1200/1250 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1500/1550 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1600/1650 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1800/1900 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon
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