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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT August 19, 2017
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
It seemed like a quieter week for grain/oilseed prices this week, especially in the futures market where all looked quite calm – except perhaps for US winter wheat which continued to drop lower in price.
Corn prices slipped by about USD 3 m/t on the week for both cash and futures and soybeans did about the same followed by soymeal that dropped a tad. Soft Red Winter wheat was down by USD 9 to 10 m/t with Hard Red Winter wheat lower by USD 10 to 11 m/t. Even spring wheat was down by a couple of dollars but this may just have been in sympathy with winter wheat.
According to US trade reports, farmers are not selling much corn which is putting some upward pressure on export prices which may cause an uptick in process for NOLA corn this coming week. Some parts of the US corn belt is seeing quite good rainfall while there are still some regions that are too dry but on average the weather is not too bad for the corn crop.
There was also talk this week that the USDA numbers are too high and that the upcoming "Pro Farmers" tour could confirm the talk. There was also talk that the weather is just a little too cool for the corn crop and that slightly higher temperatures could be needed to insure the crop.
With US soybeans, there is concern that much of the rain that helped corn missed the important soybean areas leaving some farms gasping for rainfall. The Pro Farmers tour should also point out about what the situation is with the soybean crop. However, most experts seem to feel that all looks quite good for soybeans with the lack of rainfall not being too much of a problem so far as the temperatures have been a little cool and the beans don't need as much water on cool days.
There were some comments this week that the investment funds were moving to the short side on grains and soybeans and this could help to move the market a little lower.
Crop progress and condition --- USA and France
All other French grain crops are harvested
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $15.00/15.50 | Up $0.50 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | New | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | New | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | New | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $36/37.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $37/38.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $21/23.00 | Steady | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.00/20.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | New | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $24/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $36/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $21/22.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $11/12.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1260 | Up 122 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2574 | Up 561 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1345 | Up 89 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 806 | Up 49 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 465 | Down 1 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR September 2017/November 2017
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 188/194 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein -NOLA | USD 225/230 high protein Premium | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 168/173 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 183/187 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 191/194 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 186/190 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 176/180 new crop | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 159/164 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 167/171 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 175/179 new crop Dec | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 171/175 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 160/164 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 172/177 Sep/Oct | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 156/160 Oct/Nov | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 153/157 Sep/Nov | x |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 165/169 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 191/194 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 172/175 | x |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 169/172 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 193/197 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 163/167 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 328/332 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 353/357 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 340/343 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 309/313 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 328/333 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 313/318 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB India | USD 330/335 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 367/371 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 358/365 Sep/Oct | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 370/375 Sep/Nov | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 370/375 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 590/600 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 137/141 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 172/176 m/t | x |
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The trade reports that US domestic DDGS prices moved a little higher although the USDA weekly price report doesn't really support this. Export prices for all corn by-products: DDGS, corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed were quite steady on the week. With the slight weakness that was seen in corn prices this week perhaps there will be a little downward pressure on export prices for next week.
The USDA price report showed corn gluten feed prices to be down by USD 4 to 5 m/t in the domestic market but this was not seen in export pricing as yet. The USDA also showed corn gluten meal to be down by about USD 2 m/t on average but this small change made no difference to export prices.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50% protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60% protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80% protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 500/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/680 m/t CNF Asia USD 850/870 m/t CNF Asia |
It was a quiet week for animal proteins this week – perhaps everyone was off on holidays – August is the traditional holiday month for many countries. It certainly is holiday time here in France and all the French have disappeared and been replaced by the Belgians, Italians, Dutch and Spanish. Well enough of that holiday stuff.
Export animal protein prices from major exporters seemed to be steady on the week although some sellers were looking for slightly higher prices but there didn't seem to be any buyers with any interest.
According to reports out of the US animal protein buyers are watching the vegetable protein prices very closely and don't want to do much serious buying until they can determine which is the best buy – animal protein or vegetable protein. With this week being quite a calm week for soybeans and soymeal there was not much reason to be buying.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
All has been very quiet in Peru in the past week --- a few small old lots traded but nothing exciting happening. There hasn't been any new interest in booking for the next season – too early for sellers to make any serious commitments and, as usual, buyers will wait for lower prices.
MSI Ceres mentioned this week that there are stories that the next season may be delayed until November --- all due to spawning and such. Of, course, as MSI Ceres points out, the later fishing starts the more difficult it will be to land the full quota. They also mention that there is talk of a reduced fishing quota for the next season but it is too early to know what might happen.
It was interesting reading the IFFO report this week – the 2017 catch numbers for Peru, Chile, Denmark/Norway and Iceland/North Atlantic are close to double those for 2016 with the biggest increase being in Peru but everyone is up on the year. Total year to date fishmeal production is at about 1.44 million m/t, up from 735,000 last year --- with 50% of the production coming from Peru at 726,000 m/t. Overall, 2017 fishmeal production is up by 96% over 2016. Fishoil production is also higher and is up by 72% to 282,000 m/t – Peru is only 37% of fishoil production with Chile being about 26% and Denmark/Norway another 26%. Every region covered by the IFFO summary report has shown a good increase in both fishmeal and fishoil production,
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,510 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,375 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,250 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,300 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,465 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1100/1120 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1150/1170 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1200/1220 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1300/1320 m/t | 1360/1380 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1350/1370 m/t | 1380/1400 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1400/1420 m/t | 1400/1420 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | 1450/1470 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1400/1450 | 1200/1250 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1500/1550 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1600/1650 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1800/1900 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon
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