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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroUp@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT April 07, 2018
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Soybean prices in the US were down about USD 4 m/t on the week with soymeal prices down by about the same amount. Argentina's soybean production estimates were lowered again this week. The first estimates started out up at about 58 million m/t with the latest estimates down to only 38 million m/t – that is quite a drop, but then perhaps the starting 58 million was a tad too much of a guess.
It was wheat that had all the price strength this week with US spring wheat jumping by USD 7 to 8 m/t on worries over late planting while winter wheat was up by USD 15 m/t over weather concerns with the current winter crop and the concern over how the winter crop will look closer to harvest.
The USDA crop condition report has 30% of the winter wheat crop as poor to very poor with another 38% showing only fair condition …. No wonder winter wheat prices have moved higher.
So, now we worry about weather, China and the Trump trade restrictions – tough to know where prices in the US will be going.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $16.50/17.00 | Down $0.50 | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $41/42.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $38/39.00 | Adjusted | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $37/38.00 | Adjusted | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $21.50/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $53/54.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $26/27.00 | Adjusted | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t | No info |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 948 | Down 107 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 824 | Down 186 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1317 | Down 178 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1032 | Down 48 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 643 | Down 9 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2018/June 2018
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 208/213 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 232/235 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 199/202 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 207/209 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 208/210 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 210/212 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 224/227 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 198/201 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 218/220 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 213/216 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 198/203 June/July | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | x |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 196/198 | x |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 202/205 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, Upriver | USD 182/186 July/August | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 183/187 July/August | x |
| Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 211/214 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 198/202 | x |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 202/207 | x |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 201/204 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 185/189 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 190/193 April/May | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 461>>455 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 486>>480 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 459/463 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 424/428 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 449/453 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 411/415 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 404/408 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 409/413 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 413/417 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 423/427 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 620 >>600 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 190 >>170 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 247 >>237 May/Aug | x |
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US DDGS prices were higher on the week due to a good export buying interest. Seems that buyers can't wait any longer for the prices to drop. The price of DDGS in NOLA made a good move higher on the week and prices to major destinations in Asia are said to be up by as much as USD 10 m/t.
According to the USDA, the domestic US prices for corn gluten feed were unchanged while corn gluten meal was up by about USD 5 m/t.
The USDA report on corn crushing shows that US DDGS production for February was down by close to 10 percent while corn gluten meal production was about steady with corn gluten feed production down by just over 5 percent. Overall corn use for crushing was down by about 8 percent in February versus January 2018.
USA exports of corn by-products – 2 months 2018 – major destinations – in m/t
| Country | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS Jan/Feb 2018 | Corn Gluten Meal
Jan/Feb 2018 | Corn Gluten Feed
Jan/Feb 2018 |
| Bangladesh | 20,400 |
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| Burma | 8,400 |
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| Cambodia | 8,800 |
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| Canada | 112,000 | 10,500 |
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| Chile |
| 10,900 |
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| China | 34,800 |
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| Colombia | 25,000 | 13,900 | 5,900 |
| Costa Rica | 7,900 |
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| Egypt | 28,200 | 18,100 |
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| El Salvador | 6,900 | 1,200 |
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| Honduras | 9,800 |
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| Indonesia | 106,700 | 16,300 |
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| Ireland | 62,400 |
| 47,300 |
| Israel | 48,200 |
| 36,100 |
| Japan | 71,800 |
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| Malaysia | 10,800 | 2,400 |
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| Mexico | 363,800 | 3,000 | 4,500 |
| Morocco | 21,100 |
| 7,200 |
| New Zealand | 48,000 |
| 5,500 |
| Philippines | 16,500 |
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| Portugal | 5,900 |
| 17,800 |
| South Korea | 153,300 |
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| Spain | 29,700 |
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| Taiwan | 32,100 | 7,200 |
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| Thailand | 156,700 | 4,100 |
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| Turkey | 126,300 |
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| UK | 40,000 |
| 8,600 |
| Vietnam | 152,400 | 1,900 |
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@USDA GATS
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 820/830 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 510/530 to Indonesia USD 535/545 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/610 m/t CNF Asia USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia |
Animal protein business felt quiet this week to major destinations in Asia. Prices to Asia were mainly unchanged but buyers are said to be bidding well below current producer prices with sellers not too interested this week.
We have Ramadan coming up in mid-May in Indonesia lasting to mid-June (and all other Muslim countries) so perhaps we will see a sudden rush of pre-Ramadan order from Indonesia – after all it is a major importer of animal proteins.
Prices into Indonesia were said to be off a little this week as supplies are growing in Australia.
USA domestic prices for animal proteins were steady but supply is increasing which could cause a little price weakness. Also, US interior prices for both feathermeal and poultry meal were stronger, so we may see a move higher in US export prices for these items next week.
USA exports of animal protein – 2 months 2018 – major destinations – in m/t
| Destination | Meat and bone meal – includes poultry and pork
Jan/Feb 2018 | Feathermeal
Jan/Feb 2018 |
| Burma | 1,700 |
|
| Canada | 8,000 | 1,900 |
| Chile |
| 4,200 |
| China | 6,200 | 6,300 |
| Colombia | 700 |
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| Ecuador | 2,700 |
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| Germany |
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| Honduras |
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| Indonesia | 29,800 | 3,200 |
| Malaysia | 1,100 |
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| Mexico | 43,700 |
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| Philippines | 1,800 |
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| Sri Lanka | 900 |
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| Thailand | 2,200 |
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| Vietnam | 11,700 |
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| Total exports | 111,600 | 15,600 |
@USDA GATS
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
And away we go – new quota for Peru at 3,316,700 m/t with fishing starting in the 12th or 13th of April. This quota should give us about 760,000 m/t of fishmeal – enough to keep everyone happy.
With the quota at this level there will probably be a lot of buyers bidding below the current market prices and it will probably be very difficult for producers/exporters to keep prices from falling.
Business had been very quiet for the past while but now things will be expected to pick up with producers now in much more of a selling mood and buyers all lines up to buy – but at lower prices.
However, the feeling in the trade seems to be that prices will not move all that much lower, especially for early shipping spots, but should slip a bit for July/August shipments.
Of course, pricing comments also depend on how the fishing is going but most in the industry in Peru are looking forward to a very good season with happy fisherman, busy factories and lots of co-operative anchovy.
There was mention in the fishmeal trade this week of the possible effect of the China/US trade situation and how a change in soybean shipments and higher soymeal prices in China could result in increased demand for fishmeal --- if this happens then fishmeal prices may not move lower at all.
One more small item, according to the latest analysis from the USDA-FAS office in the EU, EU fishmeal production will be steady at about 500,000 m/t with imports of about 170,000 m/t along with exports of 150,000 m/t – there are both imports and exports due to the grade quality differences – import the lower quality but export the expensive, higher quality.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,845 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,585 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,565 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,615 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,840 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1450/1470 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1500/1520 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1550/1570 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1630/1650 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1680/1700 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1730/1750 m/t | 1700/1720 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1780/1800 m/t | 1800/1850 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2500/2550 | No info |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2600/2650 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2700/2750 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 3000/3100 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon
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