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Corporate Office: Centre of Commerce 200B, 1 Bay St.,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas
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Representation Office:
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet , St. Remy de Provence, France 13210
Phone: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564
SKYPE:.....bacon39A
WWW:.hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Email:.. wbacon@hammersmith.biz
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroUp@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 31, 2018
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Offsetting the bearish stock levels were bullish planting intentions for corn and soybeans. The trade expectations had been for slightly lower corn planting and higher soybean planting but the USDA surprised everyone with lower corn levels than expected and even lower soybean levels. Quelle surprise as the French say.
So, before the US went off to the long Easter weekend we had corn futures up by USD 5 to 6 m/t, soybean futures up by USD 10 to 11 m/t, soymeal up by USD 11 to 13 m/t. Only wheat was reasonably steady with winter wheat up by about USD 2 m/t while spring wheat was down by about USD 4 m/t on a bearish USDA report for spring wheat.
It will be very interesting to see what Monday brings --- will prices continue to rally or will the USDA report not seem quite as bullish after a three-day weekend.
Price-wise next week should be very exciting.
Also, with the USDA being the main topic, there was little concern over Brazil and Argentina – we will be back to thinking about there crops come Monday.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $17/17.50 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Down $0.50 | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $21.50/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $53/54.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | New | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t | No info |
| x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1055 | Down 67 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1010 | Down 147 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1495 | Down 92 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1080 | Down 41 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 652 | Up 25 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2018/June 2018
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 208>>201 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 218/221 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 200/203 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 207/210 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 206/208 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 204/207 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 222/225 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 195/198 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 214/217 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 212/215 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 206/210 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 186/188 | x |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 197/199 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, Upriver | USD 190/183 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 184/188 July/August | X |
| Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 203/206 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 202/204 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 200/203 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 199/202 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 184/187 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 194/197 April/May | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 445/448 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 470/473 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 445/450 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 427/430 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 443/445 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 412/419 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 408/411 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 413/416 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 420/423 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 423/427 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 620 >>600 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 190 >>170 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 245 >>235 May/July m/t | x |
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The USDA report on national average prices is prepared early in the week so doesn't yet include the rally caused by the Thursday USDA planting report.
The average price in the US for soymeal is reported by the USDA to be up by about USD 11 m/t with corn gluten feed up by about USD 1 m/t and corn gluten meal up by USD 10 m/t. the USDA shows DDGS prices to be steady on the week.
According to this weeks US Grains Council report US DDGS prices increased by about USD 6 m/t as soon as the USDA report was issued. Prices into major markets in Asia for DDGS are said to be USD 7 m/t or so higher. Looks like buyers will be in for higher prices for a while now.
It is also reported that interest for corn gluten meal into Egypt has picked up. Egypt had been the largest importer of CGM a couple of year ago but devaluation slowed the imports. However, after a slow start to the year, Egypt's CGM imports are picking up --- both in vessels and containers.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 820/830 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 510/530 to Indonesia USD 535/545 m/t CNF Asia USD 610/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia |
According to the Jacobsen Report, US prices for meat and bone meal into Indonesia were lower this week with some sales reported from the US just below USD 500 m/t. Local buyers are bidding even lower but so far sellers are not going any lower. The rally in soymeal prices could certainly put a stop to any further price drops.
Australia MBM prices are said to be firming as demand is good, but supply is not.
Asian demand for feathermeal is also said to be very good which could push prices higher and may price the US out of the market.
Not much change in US domestic prices for animal proteins but this could change on Monday, once everyone is back from their long weekend and can factor in the strong rally seen in soymeal prices. However, the experts seem to feel that US animal protein prices probably will not increase too much due to very good supply levels.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Not much going on in Peru this week as most companies were closed both Thursday and Friday for Easter and some again on Monday.
The work in Peru is that the IMARPE cruise is going very well with results looking good for the next Peru fishing season. There are some thoughts that the new quota could be as high as 3 million m/t catch but most experts are quite happy with 2.5 million m/t. New season fishing is expected to happen about mid-April – so we should hear on the actual quota very soon.
It is a little difficult to get an accurate handle on prices for the new season – the indications below show a jump of about USD 50 m/t in Peru, but this may just represent exporters hopes rather than actual business.
MSI Ceres reported this week that prices in China have fallen as locals want to clear out their higher priced stocks before the next Peru season when prices could be lower – better to lose a bit today than a lot tomorrow. What is that famous saying: "first loss is best loss".
Pre-sales of next seasons fishmeal stand at about 300,000 m/t which will be about 50% of production if you assume a quota of 2.5 million m/t catch.
Not much catch in the fishing in the south of Peru this week but the total so far is now up to 92,000 m/t which yields 21,000 m/t of fishmeal.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,875 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,600 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,600 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,660 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,870 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1450/1470 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1500/1520 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1550/1570 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1630/1650 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1680/1700 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1730/1750 m/t | 1700/1720 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1780/1800 m/t | 1800/1850 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2500/2550 | No info |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2600/2650 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2700/2750 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 3000/3100 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon
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