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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroUp@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT April 21, 2018
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Quite a down week this week for all US prices. Corn prices were not down too much compared to soybeans at only about USD 4 m/t lower while soybeans dropped by about USD 9 m/t and soymeal was down by USD 7 to 8 m/t. Wheat prices were also lower with winter wheat slipping by about USD 4 m/t and spring wheat by about USD 8 m/t.
All the weakness in grains and oilseeds can be blamed on the weather. Looks like the weather in much of the grain area of the US is improving with good rains for the very thirsty winter wheat areas and much better planning weather for corn and soybeans.
Of course, the China situation is still affecting soybean prices with serious concerns over soybean exports for the rest of the year. The soybean harvest in Brazil is going very well with about 91% of the beans harvested, which is ahead of the five-year average.
There wasn't too much exciting with corn, except good planting weather. There are reports that there is not much farmer selling of corn…they are too busy planting the new crop. The China tariff on sorghum is said to have caused some shipments to be hunting for a new home. There are no international markets as big as China has been for sorghum so where will these vessels go? There is always the chance that a corn importer could take some sorghum if the price is right.
China imported 4.6 million m/t of US sorghum in 2017 representing 81.6% of total sorghum exports. Depending on what happens with China there could be quite a bit of sorghum looking for buyers. Perhaps even enough to weaken corn prices a little.
Crop Situation and Condition – USA and France
| France | Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
| Condition |
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| Wheat - soft | 1 | 5 | 16 | 73 | 5 |
| Wheat - hard | 0 | 4 | 17 | 76 | 3 |
| Barley, winter | 1 | 7 | 19 | 70 | 3 |
| Barley, spring | 1 | 3 | 15 | 80 | 1 |
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| Planted | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 % |
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| Barley, spring | 100 | 96 | 100 |
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| Corn | 6 | 1 | 49 |
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| USA
| Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
| Condition |
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| Wheat, winter | 15 | 22 | 32 | 26 | 5 |
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| Planted | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 % | Average 2013/17 % |
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| Corn | 3 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
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| Sorghum | 20 | 17 | 21 | 20 |
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| Wheat, spring | 3 | 2 | 12 | 15 |
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| Barley | 7 | 4 | 12 | 23 |
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Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $17/17.50 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $41/42.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $21.50/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $26/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $44/45.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t | No info |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1281 | Up 267 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1915 | Up 877 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1289 | Down 62 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1025 | Up 12 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 621 | Down 7 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2018/June 2018
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 218>>212 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 229/233 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 202/205 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 209/212 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 207/210 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 207/210 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 209/214 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 198/201 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 213/216 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 217/219 May/June | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD no prices | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | x |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 187/190 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 199/202 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, Upriver | USD 187/190 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 178/181 July/August | x |
| Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 206/209 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 207/210 | x |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 202/205 | x |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 203/206 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 180/184 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 186/191 May/June | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 450/454 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 475/479 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 456/461 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 433/436 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 452/456 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 420/423 June/July | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 411/414 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 420/424 May/June | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 428/432 June/July | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD no prices | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 615 >>595 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 190/193 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 247 >>235 Jun/Aug | x |
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The logistics problems in the east and south of the US are slowly being overcome so we will be getting past the very high spot/nearby prices that are shown above. There is also some pressure on prices from weaker soymeal prices this week and perhaps even a little from lower fishmeal prices – especially for corn gluten meal.
According to the USDA average price report for the domestic market, the price for corn gluten feed is up by about USD 11 m/t on the week and corn gluten meal up by about USD 7 m/t. These numbers are issued early in the week so don't show the effect of the drop in soymeal and corn prices – the USDA prices will probably be lower in next week's report.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 360/380 m/t CNF Asia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 820/830 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 520/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 to Indonesia USD 550/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/610 m/t CNF Asia USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia |
There wasn't much change in prices for animal proteins into Asia this week, but some trade reports are expecting weakness in prices to develop as supplies from OZ, NZ and the USA are quite good – especially for meat and bone meal. Buyers are said to be bidding below current quoted market price levels.
In the US, there seems to be a tight supply of feathermeal which has pushed both domestic and export prices higher. But US domestic meat and bone meal prices are a little weaker which will create some opportunity for lower export MBM prices.
The Jacobsen Report was mentioning that falling fishmeal prices could have an effect on animal protein prices but also that fishmeal will not be available for shipment from the new season in Peru for a few weeks yet.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in the northern region of Peru is chugging right along with daily catch levels averaging over 40,000 m/t. The total landed up to the 19th was about 600,000 m/t which should yield 136,000 m/t of fishmeal and 23,000 m/t of fishoil.
If the full Peru quota is landed, then the production in the north could yield 770,000 m/t of fishmeal and 127,0000 m/t of fishoil
Prices from Peru have weakened quite a bit – pushed somewhat by the Chinese who are trying to buy well below the market levels of a few days ago. There is nothing like a high quota to help move the market lower. According to some trade reports the bids are significantly below the indication prices shown below.
The Peru fishmeal export numbers for January to March have been released and China is still the top destination, accounting for 83.6% of fishmeal exports. Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam together account for another 9.7% --- total export shipments were 162,000 m/t.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,860 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,570 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,570 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,620 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,865 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1300/1320 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1350/1370 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1420/1440 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1490/1510 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1540/1560 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1590/1610 m/t | 1600/1620 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1640/1660 m/t | 1650/1670 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1700/1750 | No info |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1800/1850 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1900/1950 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2000/2100 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon
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