-------------------------
Europe Representation Office:
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet , St. Remy de Provence, France 13210
Phone: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564
SKYPE:.....bacon39A
WWW:.hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Email:.. wbacon@hammersmith.biz
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT April 04, 2020
This week was a down week for prices for most every grain, oilseed and protein meal. Corn prices dropped in the US by USD 5 to 6 m/t with soybeans falling by USD 9 to 11 m/t and soymeal down by USD 16 to 20 m/t. Wheat too was lower with winter wheat down by USD 5 m/t or so and US spring wheat also down by about USD 5 m/t.
Corn moved lower on the numbers from the USDA Planting Intentions and Grain Stocks reports --- the big surprise for the trade was an increase in corn planting, up by about 8% over last year. However, corn stocks are lower than last year which helped keep corn prices from moving lower. USA corn is very competitive in some export markets these days which should give a push higher to US corn export sales.
Soybean prices were lower this week on good soybean harvests in South America – with a drop in the value of both Argentina and Brazil currency moving export prices lower in US$. Trade reports this week were saying that the market is currently a little bearish for soybean prices but that in coming weeks there could be room for soybean prices to slip by as much as USD 25 m/t.
Wheat seemed to be giving back a little of the recent increase in prices but there is still concern that coronavirus demand could push prices higher once again. While there does seem to be lots of wheat in the world, every wheat importing country has pushed buying higher as strategic wheat stocks are being built to higher levels – all due to coronavirus concerns. The export limits by Russia and the Ukraine could also put some upward pressure on prices in coming days. So, this week's wheat price weakness may just have been a buying opportunity.
Top 20 US Export Destinations for Grains and Oilseeds –
2 months to February 2020 – in m/t
| Country
| Wheat | Corn | Sorghum | Soybeans | Soymeal |
| Algeria |
|
|
|
|
|
| Bangladesh |
|
|
| 223,300 |
|
| Brazil | 48,500 |
|
|
|
|
| Burma |
|
|
|
| 61,200 |
| Cameroon |
|
|
|
|
|
| Canada |
| 242,400 | 700 | 22,900 | 143,300 |
| China |
| 1,100 | 312,100 | 2,612,800 |
|
| Colombia | 129,200 | 1,094,400 |
| 82,800 | 241,300 |
| Costa Rica |
| 124,200 |
|
|
|
| Djibouti |
|
|
|
|
|
| Dominican Rep |
| 18,500 |
|
| 37,700 |
| Ecuador | 117,700 |
|
|
| 116,600 |
| El Salvador |
| 67,800 |
|
| 23,100 |
| Egypt |
|
|
| 569,500 |
|
| Eritrea |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ethiopia | 31,000 |
|
|
|
|
| Germany |
|
|
|
|
|
| Guatemala | 83,800 | 207,700 |
|
| 68,600 |
| Honduras |
| 117,700 |
|
| 49,500 |
| Indonesia | 258,500 |
|
| 272,800 |
|
| Iraq |
|
|
|
|
|
| Israel |
|
|
|
| 52,400 |
| Italy | 83,000 |
|
| 78,100 |
|
| Jamaica |
| 36,200 |
|
|
|
| Japan | 459,100 | 1,463,200 | 54,000 | 512,700 | 22,300 |
| Kenya |
|
|
|
|
|
| Madagascar |
|
| 800 |
|
|
| Malaysia | 56,900 |
|
| 105,100 |
|
| Mexico | 590,600 | 2,224,900 | 182,100 | 890,800 | 296,300 |
| Morocco |
|
|
|
| 79,300 |
| Netherlands |
|
|
| 666,900 |
|
| New Zealand |
|
|
|
|
|
| Nigeria | 208,100 |
|
|
|
|
| Nicaragua |
| 50,900 |
|
|
|
| Pakistan |
|
|
| 206,700 |
|
| Panama |
| 73,000 |
|
| 31,200 |
| Peru | 21,900 | 14,600 |
| 27,400 | 105,800 |
| Philippines | 618,900 |
|
|
| 332,500 |
| Portugal |
|
|
| 26,500 |
|
| Saudi Arabia |
| 127,400 |
|
|
|
| Somalia |
|
|
|
|
|
| South Africa |
|
|
|
|
|
| South Korea | 191,800 | 139,300 | 200 | 135,000 |
|
| Spain |
|
|
| 280,400 |
|
| Sri Lanka |
|
|
|
| 37,200 |
| Sudan |
|
|
|
|
|
| Taiwan | 153,500 | 99,400 |
| 408,200 |
|
| Thailand | 223,700 |
|
| 177,900 | 10,400 |
| Trinidad |
| 16,300 |
|
|
|
| Venezuela |
|
|
|
| 26,500 |
| Vietnam |
|
|
| 185,000 | 20,700 |
| Yemen | 59,000 |
|
|
|
|
| Zimbabwe |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@USDA G@ATS April 2020
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $12/13.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $12/13.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $57/58.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $39/40.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $39/40.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $38/39.00 |
| X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $56/57.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $56/57.00 |
| X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 |
| X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 |
| X |
|
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $41/42.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $36/37.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $23/24.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $53/54.00 |
| X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $46/47.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $48/49.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $46/47.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $31/32.00 |
| X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $47/48.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $23/23.50 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $23/23.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, 50,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | New | X |
| Ukraine to India, 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | New | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $22/23.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $35/36.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $46/47.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 616 | Up 62 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 319 | Up 416 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 797 | Up 68 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 495 | Down 146 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 340 | Down 61 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2020/June 2020
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 240>>233 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 223/226 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 215/217 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 222/224 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 216/218 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 216/218 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 230/233 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 212/214 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 180/182 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 189/191 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 182/184 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 168>>162 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 172/175 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 168/171 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 158/161 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 183/185 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 174/177 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 184/187 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 179/182 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 128/131 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 194/197 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 367>>360 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 392>>385 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 393/396 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 344/347 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 385/388 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 337/340 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 341/343 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 328/331 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 335/338 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 388/390 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 585/595 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 209/212 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 268>>254 m/t | x |
|
|
|
|
While corn prices moved lower this week, DDGS did just the opposite and took another run higher. The DDGS situation is totally supply driven, as reported previously, a drop in ethanol production in the US means a drop in DDGS supply.
A ton of corn can produce about 300 kg of DDGS so every ton less of corn used in ethanol production has a very, very significant effect on the supply of DDGS.
The US Grains Council (USGC) reported this week that a shortage of supply and difficult logistics have caused some DDGS export shipments to be pushed off for a month. The USGC also notes that interior US DDGS prices have moved higher by about USD 24 ton.
US corn gluten meal prices remain high as fishmeal related demand is keeping strength in the market. High container freight rates for CGM are also making CNF prices very high.
Corn gluten feed prices are steady and will probably slip a little lower this coming week as CGF prices follow corn prices down.
USA exports of corn by-products – 2 months to February 2020 – major destinations and selected countries – in m/t
| Country | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS
| Corn Gluten Meal
| Corn Gluten Feed
|
| Australia |
| 800 |
|
| Bangladesh | 9,400 | 5,000 |
|
| Burma |
| 400 |
|
| Canada | 70,700 | 7,700 |
|
| Chile |
| 42,800 |
|
| China | 21,400 |
|
|
| Colombia | 26,100 | 14,600 | 7,700 |
| Ecuador |
| 500 |
|
| Egypt | 16,700 | 3,800 |
|
| El Salvador |
| 1,300 |
|
| Guatemala |
| 1,900 |
|
| Honduras |
| 1,100 |
|
| Indonesia | 217,700 | 25,100 | 800 |
| Ireland | 60,800 |
| 27,300 |
| Israel | 63,400 |
| 34,000 |
| Japan | 115,600 | 2,100 |
|
| Malaysia |
| 9,800 |
|
| Mexico | 335,500 | 1,600 | 1,900 |
| Morocco | 28,600 |
| 6,800 |
| New Zealand | 42,100 |
|
|
| Peru |
| 1,500 |
|
| Philippines | 55,100 | 200 |
|
| Portugal |
|
|
|
| South Korea | 256,800 |
|
|
| Spain |
|
|
|
| Taiwan | 43,800 | 5,900 |
|
| Thailand | 133,000 | 4,900 | 1,000 |
| Turkey | 86,300 |
| 7,000 |
| UK | 21,500 |
| 7,300 |
| Vietnam | 120,800 | 4,000 | 500 |
|
|
|
|
|
@USDA GATS April 2020
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 770/780 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 460/480 to Indonesia USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/830 m/t CNF Asia |
Animal protein prices in Asia moved higher this week as they tried to catch up to the last rally in soymeal prices – of course the soymeal rally has now reversed so we will see what happens next week.
Prices out of both Australia and New Zealand are reported to be steady for meat and bone meal with demand for poultry meal very good. The Jacobsen report was saying that demand for animal protein for pet food production is very strong as the coronavirus situation has caused a big jump in pet food sales.
In the US there has been some good demand for animal proteins --- again pushed on by pet food industry demand.
It is expected that pet food demand will continue to be the main factor in animal protein prices until we start to see a drop in coronavirus cases and consumers slow down in their stockpiling of pet food.
USA exports of animal protein – 2 months to February 2020 – major destinations – in m/t
| Destination | Meat and bone meal – includes poultry and pork meal
| Feather meal
|
| Burma | 700 |
|
| Cambodia |
|
|
| Canada | 8,700 | 100 |
| Chile | 1,900 | 6,300 |
| China | 33,200 | 600 |
| Colombia |
|
|
| Dominican Rep |
|
|
| Ecuador | 4,300 |
|
| Guatemala | 500 |
|
| Honduras | 1,300 | 100 |
| Indonesia | 37,600 | 9,300 |
| Malaysia | 2,000 |
|
| Mexico | 32,000 |
|
| Peru | 800 | 200 |
| Philippines | 8,500 | 100 |
| Sri Lanka | 200 |
|
| Thailand | 6,100 |
|
| Vietnam | 18,300 | 1,000 |
|
|
|
|
| Total exports | 156,600 | 17,700 |
@USDA GATS April 2020
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
All is very quiet in Peru with no new advanced sales to report. The talk is mainly about the effect of COVID-19 on ports and production facilities. The country lockdown in Peru could certainly have an affect on production and there is not much sense in catching fish if you can't process them.
The industry seems to feel that the new quota could be quite small and that fishing may be delayed until May. Of course, this is all speculation – but it seems to make sense.
The lockdown in Peru runs to April 13 but there is a decent chance that this could be extended.
Looking at China, Peru's main fishmeal export market, things are improving with demand for fishmeal up and the recovery from African Swine Fever doing quite well. There is some concern that China may have a shortage of fishmeal if things in Peru do not allow for a reasonable quota and the ability to produce and ship fishmeal. The demand is certainly there in China, but will we see the supply side in Peru being able to meet China's needs.
The next few weeks, perhaps months, are going to be very difficult for the fishmeal industry in Peru.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,660 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,400 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,560 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,610 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,680 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 65/66 protein | 1450/1470 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1530/1550 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1550/1570 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1630/1650 m/t | 1600/1620 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1690/1710 m/t | 1640/1660 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1730/1750 m/t | 1730/1750 m/t |
|
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2300/2350 |
|
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2350/2400 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2450/2500 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2600 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.