-------------------------
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Phone: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564
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WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT April 18, 2020
This week was another week of lower prices – corn down by about USD 4 to 6 m/t, soybeans down by USD 10 to 12 m/t, soymeal down by USD 4 to 6 m/t and US wheat down by USD 5 to 9 m/t.
While corn did move lower this week, there is some talk in the trade that we may be the ethanol driven bottom in corn prices. The feeling seems to be that ethanol production will not drop any lower. Every time that there is a news story suggesting that COVID-19 has peaked there tends to be a little rally in corn prices – so, perhaps we are at the lows on corn.
Soybeans seem to be another story and just don't seem to want to stop sliding lower. This week there were concerns about a drop in feed production demand along with an expected shift in US soybean acres to corn. It is also seen that China is buying a stack of Brazil soybeans not US beans. The soybean harvests in South America are also going well --- it is tough to find any bullish news for soybeans.
While wheat was all lower on the week, the Black Sea wheat situation will probably see a switch in demand to US and others with the US getting a good chunk of wheat business. If this demand moves to US wheat, then that should put an end to the current price weakness. Also, world demand for wheat is still very good with many governments continuing to try to build higher reserve stocks. Of course, depending on COVID-19, higher reserve stocks today will mean lower purchase in the future.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $13/14.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $13/14.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $57/58.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $39/40.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $56/57.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $56/57.00 |
| X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 |
| X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $20/21.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $42/43.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 (10,000 dis) | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $54/55.00 |
| X |
|
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|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $15/16.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $47/48.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $48/49.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $47/48.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $15/16.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | corrected | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $47/48.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $23.50/24 |
| X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $23/23.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $38/39.00 |
| x |
|
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|
|
|
| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, 50,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India, 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $17/18.00 |
| x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $36/37.00 |
| x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $35/36.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $46/47.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $15/16.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 751 | Up 116 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 993 | Up 452 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 825 | Up 12 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 404 | Down 37 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 281 | Down 25 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR May 2020/July 2020
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 231>>226 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 226/229 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 223/226 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 229/232 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 227/230 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 224/226 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 231/234 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 219/222 | X |
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|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 180/182 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 189/191 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 182/184 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 155/157 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 167/169 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 156/159 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 154/157 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 182/185 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 177/180 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 182/185 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 178/181 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 125/128 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 193/196 | X |
|
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 343/346 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 368/371 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 373/376 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 320/323 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 372/375 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 321/324 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 332/335 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 325/328 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 327/330 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 393/395 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 615/625 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 210/213 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 245>>225 m/t May>>August | X |
|
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DDGS prices are still very strong for May/July due to a lack of supply which is tied directly to the drop in ethanol production, but the spot price has moderated a little. Perhaps by August or so the situation will have improved and supply will reappear. From a DDGS export point of view, buyers will switch from high priced DDGS to lower priced corn and soymeal – there is little sense in them paying a huge premium for DDGS.
Corn gluten meal prices continue strong as demand is very good – both domestic and export demand – anything that has good levels of protein is in very good demand these days. Corn gluten meal prices will probably stay strong for at least the next two to three months.
Corn gluten feed prices did not change at all this week, but it is reported that demand is quite good in the US domestic market but not much to report on CGF export demand.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 770/780 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 460/480 to Indonesia USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/830 m/t CNF Asia |
Export prices to buyers in Asia seemed to be just a little lower this week as much of the buying interest has disappeared due to logistics complications with COVID-19 and the upcoming Ramadan period.
It is expected that prices from both Australia and New Zealand will move higher, for both domestic and export, as the animal slaughter numbers are dropping. Reports say that beef production could be down by as much as 30%.
On the other side of the scale, US domestic prices have moved higher mainly on a shortage of supply caused by facility shutdowns due to COVID-19. Both cattle and hog slaughter numbers in the US are lower. There is also very steady demand from the pet food industry for all animal protein while from the animal feed sector, the drop in DDGS supply is shifting some buyers to animal protein.
For the time being it looks like we will see steady to higher prices, but this will change once the current COVID-19 situation improves.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The expected Imarpe Express Research Cruise is underway and should be finished in a maximum of 15 days. The cruise will end just about as Peru reaches the end of its current coronavirus lockdown period.
The lockdown in Peru was quite different to what we see in Europe it started with men allowed out on Monday, Wednesday and Friday with women allowed on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday – no one is out on Sunday. Needless to say, this man/women plan did not work and was cancelled.
According to MSI Ceres, the fishing industry has been allowed to do maintenance on their ships, equipment and factories – with many restrictions -- assuming that they can find the staff to do the work. Bu as MSI Ceres said – this is the first step toward the new fishing season.
Rumors seem to have settled on the new quota being at 2.0 million m/t – not all that bad a quota.
A couple of trade reports mentioned the story that some new season business had been done to China at lower prices, but this is still just stories.
It is also reported that the fishmeal use in China is climbing as the market in China looks to be recovering very quickly from both Coronavirus and African Swine Fever. Chinese buyers are reported to be shopping everywhere for available fishmeal supplies.
Well, a couple more weeks and we should know what is happening in Peru but with the limitations caused by coronavirus both fishing and processing will not be easy.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,700 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,400 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,560 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,610 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,750 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1450/1470 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1500/1520 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1550/1570 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1600/1620 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1660/1680 m/t | 1640/1660 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1700/1720 m/t | 1700/1720 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2300/2350 |
|
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2350/2400 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2450/2500 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2600 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
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