Weekly report -- April 11, 2020

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564   

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

Friday was a holiday in the US and other countries for the Christian Good Friday celebrations. Some countries in Europe are closed on Monday – Easter Monday – rather than Friday.

 

WEEKLY GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT April 11, 2020

 

This week was USDA-WASDE week, but the trade seemed to feel that there were not too many surprises hidden in the report.

 

The WASDE showed a small increase in corn stocks but overall, there was not much in the way of new and startling corn information reported. There was no strong market reaction to the report – corn prices didn't do anything much. There were some comments in week end reports that ethanol production has dropped by 20% and will probably drop further --- this would be very bearish for US corn prices, as where is all that corn going to go.

 

Soybeans too had a slightly bearish WASDE, but soybeans moved higher in the US as the feeling is that, WASDE aside, the demand for US export soybeans will be very good for the next while which will hold prices firm or move them higher. Estimates of South American soybean production has been cut back by both Brazil and Argentina which could make US beans the best game in town.

 

The WASDE was also bearish for wheat but wheat prices moved higher --- these days we are in the midst of a worldwide wheat demand – much of it due to COVID-19. As long as all the major export buyers continue to be even bigger buyers then there is very little chance that prices will move lower. Yes, there is scads of wheat out there and all the current buying may just be a COVID-19 blip, but that blip will keep prices firm for now.

 

When we all get out of lockdown and demand for everything slacks off then we will see a tumble in many prices – as we can see by the spate of recent tenders, even major countries can become COVID-19 panic buyers.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$13/14.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)	$13/14.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$57/58.00		X
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)	$39/40.00		X
US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t	$38/39.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$39/40.00		X
US Gulf China: Panamax	$38/39.00		X
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t	$37/38.00		X
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$20/21.00		X
US PNW China: Panamax	$19/20.00		X
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$56/57.00		X
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$56/57.00		X
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t	$40/41.00		X
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t	$42/43.00		X
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis)	$22/23.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t	$42/43.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 (10,000 dis)	$19/20.00		X
France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t	$33/34.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis)	$24/25.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis)	$20/21.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$34/35.00
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$45/46.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Up $2.00	X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$54/55.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$31/32.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$29/30.00		X
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$28/29.00		X
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$16/17.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis)	$28/29.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t	$47/48.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t	$48/49.00		X
Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t	$47/48.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t	$16/17.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$31/32.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t	$31/32.00		X
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t	$35/36.00	Up $1.00	X
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$25/26.00		X
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$24/25.00		X
Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	X
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t	$27/28.00	Down $1.00	X
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t	$47/48.00		X
Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	X
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$28/29.00	Down $1.00	X
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$23.50/24	Up $0.50	X
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$23/23.50		X
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t	$38/39.00	Up $1.00	x
Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t	$28/29.00	Down $1.00	X
Ukraine to Bangladesh, 50,000 m/t	$41/42.00	Up $1.00	X
Ukraine to India, 50,000 m/t	$34/35.00		X
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)	$17/18.00		X
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)	$23/24.00		X
Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) -	$25/26.00	Up $3.00	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis)	$17/18.00		X
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)	$17/18.00	Up $1.00	X
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$24/25.00		X
Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$36/37.00	Up $3.00	X
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$35/36.00		X
Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t	$18/19.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$17/18.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Down $2.00	X
Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t	$24/25.00		X
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$24/25.00	Down $2.00	X
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$46/47.00		X
Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t	$16/17.00		x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$15/16.00	Down $3.00	x
Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included)	635	Up 19	X
Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT)	541	Up 222	X
Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT)	813	Up 16	X
Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT)	441	Down 54	X
Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT)	306	Down 34	x

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2020/June 2020

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf	USD 241>>236	X
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf	USD 230/233	X
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 219/222	X
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 224/227	X
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 226/229	X
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 225/227	X
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver	USD 233/236	X
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 215/218	X
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 186/188	X
Barley, feed, Argentina, up river	USD 189/191	X
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 181/183	X
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA	USD 162/165	X
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 172/175	X
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 169/172	X
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 158/161	X
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic	USD 185/187	X
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 178/181	X
Corn, FOB Russia	USD 183/186	X
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t	USD 180/183	X
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 129/132	X
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 198/201	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA	USD 355/358	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 380/383	X
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 362/365	X
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina	USD 337/340	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 363/366	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil	USD 323/326	X
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 343/346	X
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 332/335	X
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 338/341	X
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 393/395	X
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD 585/595 m/t	X
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD 210/213 m/t	X
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD 260>>235 m/t         May>>August	X

 

DDGS supply continues to suffer with the seemingly ever increasing number of ethanol facility shutdowns. Domestic US prices for DDGS are very strong for the next few weeks, some of which may be due to end users over buying in case of shortages (much like the toilet paper stockpiling).

 

If we do see some increase in demand for ethanol, then DDGS supply will increase and the USD 30 premium for spot product will disappear in a flash.

 

And there are corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal and neither seems to be doing anything much. However, there could be the possibility of stronger prices for CGM due to the uncertainty in the fishmeal business. Fishmeal users may turn even more to corn gluten meal and poultry meal as the best high protein alternatives to fishmeal – for now there is almost no fishmeal available.

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Australian MBM 45% protein    Australian MBM 50% protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia  USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia  USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia  USD 770/780 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein       USA Feathermeal, 80% protein    USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia  USD 460/480 to Indonesia  USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia  USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia  USD 800/830 m/t CNF Asia

 

Demand for meat and bone meal in Asia and China is good this week – good in China as importers see improved domestic demand and in Indonesia and other areas there is increased demand in advance of Ramadan, mainly for after Ramadan shipments --- Ramadan should start on April 24 and continue to May 23, followed by the long Eid holiday.

 

Prices from both Australia and New Zealand seemed steady this week, but experts are looking to higher prices in coming days.

 

In the US domestic market there is still very strong demand for animal protein from the pet food industry but the weakness in soymeal prices may see a shift in feed demand from animal protein to soymeal. US end users have the advantage of being able to quickly switch ingredients as prices fluctuate – some thing that does not exist in protein importing markets.

 

However, the closure of some meat plants due to COVID-19 may reduce animal protein supply and keep prices steady or even higher.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Still waiting to hear the results of the Imarpe cruise – should be available soon. COVID-19 has caused the South Peru cruise to be cancelled. MSI Ceres mentioned in their report last week that there could possibly be a biomass research "express" cruise in the north of Peru later in April.

 

The big worry now is the effect that COVID-19 and a lockdown could have on the next fishing season. Will there still be a season – of course there will – but it will be more difficult due to COVID-19 and possible restrictions with ports and crews and problems with staffing fishmeal processing facilities.

 

Peru is tightening up on its restrictions – not a tight as Europe – which will make staffing and transportation more difficult.

 

There is no fishmeal business to report in Peru but there certainly will be once a new quota is announced. Of course, there is also the concern that a new quota could come with lots of COVID-19 restrictions attached, which could make fishing and processing very difficult.

 

Stocks of fishmeal in China are dropping and local fishmeal prices are moving higher – depending on what happens in Peru prices may get quite a bit higher as fishmeal stocks get rationed.

 

As to prices – nothing new to say as noting to sell. Even in Europe there is little change in prices, mostly up a little or down a little due to the US$ exchange rate.

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72% protein	1,620
Danish fishmeal	64% protein	1,400
Peru fishmeal	64% protein	1,550
Chile fishmeal	67% protein	1,600
Iceland fishmeal	70% protein	1,690

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65/66 protein	1450/1470 m/t
67% protein standard steam	1500/1520 m/t
67% protein 150 TVN	1550/1570 m/t	1550/1570 m/t
67% protein 120 TVN	1600/1620 m/t	1600/1620 m/t
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1660/1680 m/t	1640/1660 m/t
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN	1700/1720 m/t	1700/1720 m/t
Fish oil, crude bulk	2300/2350
Fish oil, crude drums	2350/2400
Fish oil, flexi tank	2450/2500
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2500/2600

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon