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WEEKLY GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 04, 2020
Corn prices increased by about USD 8 m/t with soybeans up by about USD 11 m/t, soymeal up by USD 11 m/t too --- even winter wheat was up between USD 3 and 6 m/t – only US spring wheat seemed able to avoid any major changes.
According to trade reports, with the market higher, US farmers were selling as much of everything as they could to try to capture the higher prices while at the same time the investment funds were buying up all the grain futures they could. It will be very interesting to see what happens on Monday.
Other than USDA reports, corn prices could move higher on the hot and dry weather that is happening in the US corn belt but, according to weather forecast this will change to rainfall shortly. There has been quite a bit of talk this week about the critical pollination time for corn in July and how important this is for crop yields --- expect some exciting price action in July as weather changes scare or excite the market.
Not much to report on soybeans/soymeal – China is reported to have bought more soybeans and US exports were OK but not exciting. China bought mainly new crop soybeans while Egypt was in for some old crop beans.
While wheat prices were higher on the week, they did have a decent drop on Thursday based on good rains for the current crop.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
A report by Clarkson Research says that the drop in ocean shipping volume this year is the largest drop seen in 35 years and could represent more than 1 billion m/t of trade.
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $21/22.00 |
| X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $62/63.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $59/60.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 |
| X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 |
| X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $21/22.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $50/51.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 (10,000 dis) | $16/17.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $62/63.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $33/34.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $32/33.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $51/52.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $41/42.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $51/52.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $34/35.00 |
| X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $21/22.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $51/52.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $21/22.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 |
| X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $25/25.50 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $47/48.00 |
| X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, 50,000 m/t | $50/51.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India, 50,000 m/t | $40/41.00 |
| x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Down $7.00 | x |
| Ukraine to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $13/14.00 |
| x |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $18/19.00 | Up $5.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $14/15.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Down $4.00 | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Up $5.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $26/27.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $15/16.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $50/51.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1894 | Up 145 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 4440 | Up 221 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1316 | Up 60 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 701 | Up 23 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 412 | Up 27 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2020/August 2020
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 210/213 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 215/218 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 194/197 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 201/204 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 205/208 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 207/209 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 237/240 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 188/191 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 189/191 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 176/179 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 178/181 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 167/169 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 176/178 |
|
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 156/159 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 164/167 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 193/195 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 184/187 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 183/186 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 182/185 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 133/135 new crop | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 218/221 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 348/351 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 373/376 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 357/360 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 327/330 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 353/356 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 328/331 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 361/364 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 354/357 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 372/375 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 392/395 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 530/560 m/t July/Sept | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 196/199 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 193/198 m/t | X |
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The USDA acreage report this week was a bit of a surprise to the grain/oilseed business and pushed most prices higher ---- there are reports that DDGS prices at the US Gulf are up by USD 15 m/t or so. This sudden run up in DDGS prices will probably not hold unless corn prices continue to move higher.
The US Grains Council reported this week that most international buyers are well covered for DDGS through the summer months which may limit price rallies and dips.
Corn gluten meal prices moved higher in the nearby by about USD 20 m/t while prices out in September weakened a little. Perhaps the drop in fishmeal prices this week will put some pressure on CGM prices.
As usual corn gluten feed just followed along with what is happening with corn prices.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 390/410 m/t CNF Asia USD 330/350 to Indonesia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/830 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices to major buyers in Asia/China took a serious drop this week – a drop that was said to be driven by much lower prices from the USA. Prices from both Australia and New Zealand were not as low as from the US but are expected to drop to compete. The supply of animal proteins from OZ and NZ is getting tighter due to lower slaughter so this may limit any further price slide.
In the US domestic market, all animal protein prices were lower on the week but a rally in prices is expected since the price of US vegetable protein jumped higher this week due to the bullish acreage report from the USDA.
The Jacobsen Report was saying that, while the trend is for steady to lower prices, "a price floor is very close". Will this mean the end to these rock bottom prices, difficult to say.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing remains good in Peru and we are up to landings of about 2.0 million m/t which leaves only 400,000 m/t or so still to land --- the chances of completing the quota seem to be better every day.
Fishmeal production is up to about 485,000 m/t based on the catch with fishoil at 66,000 m/t.
The trade estimates that there are unsold stocks of about 100,000 m/t with another 100,000 m/t possible if the quota is completed.
Prices in Peru are reported to have dropped by about USD 200 m/t this week, but it is not expected that this drop will hold – or so some experts say. The experts seem to be divided on what will happen with prices – some say that we can move lower while others feel that China will jump back into the market which will hold prices steady or push them a little higher.
So, fishing is good, prices are down, buying interest is up ---- much better situation than had been expected a few weeks ago.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,785 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,450 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,575 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,650 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,835 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1200/1220 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1250/1270 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1300/1320 m/t | 1500/1520 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1350/1370 m/t | 1550/1570 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1400/1420 m/t | 1600/1620 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | 1650/1670 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2100/2200 |
|
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2150/2250 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2250/2350 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2300/2400 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
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