-------------------------
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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 11, 2020
Soft red winter wheat (SRW)was the exception – up by USD 12 m/t late Thursday then another USD 4 higher on Friday. Although hard red winter wheat was down a little after the WASDE it was still up by USD 7 m/t. There didn't seem to be a particularly good reason for the jump in SRW prices – some trade reports say that it was just short sellers covering when prices looked to move higher.
Trade reports say that Friday's WASDE report was bearish or neutral for most everything and then add to this some very good US weather and you have reason for weaker prices.
Other than China, prices are going to be mainly weather driven for now and for this coming week it looks to be difficult to find any bad growing weather in the US --- so probably steady to lower in prices.
Top 20 US Export Destinations for Grains and Oilseeds –
5 months to May 2020 – in m/t
| Country
| Wheat | Corn | Sorghum | Soybeans | Soymeal |
| Algeria | 65,300 |
|
|
|
|
| Bangladesh |
|
|
| 529,000 |
|
| Belgium |
|
|
|
| 28,700 |
| Brazil | 182,800 |
|
|
|
|
| Burma |
|
|
|
| 131,400 |
| Cameroon |
|
|
|
|
|
| Canada |
| 697,000 | 1,800 | 55,500 | 420,000 |
| China |
| 131,100 | 2,038,100 | 3,409,400 |
|
| Chile | 116,800 |
|
|
|
|
| Colombia | 317,200 | 2,652,800 |
| 262,300 | 574,000 |
| Costa Rica |
| 458,600 |
| 148,700 |
|
| Cuba |
| 29,000 |
|
|
|
| Denmark |
|
|
|
| 38,100 |
| Djibouti |
|
| 10,000 |
|
|
| Dominican Rep | 114,800 | 381,200 |
|
| 185,800 |
| Ecuador | 271,500 |
|
|
| 291,200 |
| El Salvador | 56,200 | 248,400 |
|
| 92,800 |
| Egypt |
|
|
| 1,883,200 |
|
| Eritrea |
|
| 33,000 |
|
|
| Ethiopia | 61,000 |
| 60,700 |
|
|
| France |
|
| 45,700 | 36,600 |
|
| Germany |
|
|
|
|
|
| Guatemala | 220,100 | 562,400 |
|
| 201,100 |
| Honduras | 106,700 | 357,800 |
|
| 132,500 |
| Indonesia | 591,400 |
|
| 970,900 |
|
| Iraq |
|
|
|
|
|
| Israel |
| 315,200 |
| 42,400 | 61,500 |
| Italy | 344,100 |
|
| 116,900 |
|
| Jamaica |
| 100,800 |
|
| 44,200 |
| Japan | 1,119,900 | 5,398,500 | 166,000 | 1,273,600 | 66,500 |
| Kenya |
|
|
|
|
|
| Madagascar |
|
| 800 |
|
|
| Malaysia | 126,300 |
|
| 300,100 |
|
| Mexico | 1,403,600 | 6,185,400 | 256,700 | 1,959,500 | 750,800 |
| Morocco |
| 43,400 |
|
| 217,200 |
| Netherlands |
|
|
| 864,900 |
|
| New Zealand |
|
|
|
|
|
| Nigeria | 540,400 |
|
|
|
|
| Nicaragua |
| 191,400 |
|
| 58,900 |
| Pakistan |
|
|
| 206,700 |
|
| Panama |
| 196,200 |
|
| 82,200 |
| Peru | 111,800 | 37,700 |
| 101,500 | 166,800 |
| Philippines | 1,366,300 | 8,800 |
|
| 902,800 |
| Portugal |
|
|
| 26,500 |
|
| Saudi Arabia |
| 434,400 |
| 65,100 |
|
| Somalia |
|
| 45,500 |
|
|
| South Africa |
|
|
|
|
|
| South Korea | 590,400 | 1,814,700 | 500 | 218,700 |
|
| Spain |
|
|
| 344,300 |
|
| Sri Lanka |
|
|
|
| 83,200 |
| Sudan |
|
| 46,100 |
|
|
| Taiwan | 462,700 | 436,500 |
| 638,400 |
|
| Thailand | 419,600 |
|
| 394,900 | 14,600 |
| Trinidad |
| 47,900 |
|
|
|
| Venezuela |
|
|
|
| 82,400 |
| Vietnam | 169,100 | 221,100 |
| 345,400 | 106,800 |
| Yemen | 329,400 |
|
|
|
|
| Zimbabwe |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total all | 10,589,500 | 21,783,900 | 2,659,600 | 14,777,400 | 5,487,400 |
@USDA GATS July 2020
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $25/25.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $60/61.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $39/40.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $40/41.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $40/41.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $38/39.00 |
| X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $21/22.00 |
| X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $62/63.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 |
| X |
|
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $51/52.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 (10,000 dis) | $16/17.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $63/64.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $30/31.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $30/31.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $15/16.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $12/13.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $53/54.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $41/42.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $52/53.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $12/13.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $52/53.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $25/25.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $48/49.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, 50,000 m/t | $51/52.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India, 50,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $15/16.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $13/14.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $14/15.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $39/40.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $16/17.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $16/17.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $26/27.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $51/52.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1810 | Down 84 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 3333 | Down 1107 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1587 | Up 271 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 835 | Up 134 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 435 | Up 23 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2020/August 2020
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 233/236 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 221/224 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 198/201 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 205/208 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 211/214 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 217/219 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 228/231 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 190/193 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 193/196 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 179/182 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 178/181 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 171/173 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 178/180 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 153/156 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 166/169 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 208/210 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 186/189 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 184/187 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 183/186 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 134/136 new crop | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 218/221 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 344/347 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 369/372 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 354/357 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 326/329 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 355/358 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 330/333 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 363/366 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 360/363 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 371/374 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 392/395 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 530/560 m/t July/Sept | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 180/185 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 193/198 m/t | X |
|
|
|
|
While corn prices moved a little higher this week the prices for both DDGS and corn gluten feed slipped lower – mainly due to increased supply. The export sellers seem to be just about sold out for July and August for most corn byproducts with some reported logistics problems for shipment.
September supplies are available for all corn byproducts but at higher prices. Export freight has been firmer, especially container freight, which has kept most CNF prices firm and there doesn't look to be any good reason for now for lower freight.
US FOB port prices are expected to be steady for a bit but any change in corn prices will tend to push byproduct prices one way or another.
Still hoping to see some weakness in corn gluten meal prices since fishmeal prices have dropped about USD 150 m/t in the past couple of weeks
USA exports of corn by-products – 5 months to May 2020
– major destinations and selected countries – in m/t
| Country | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS
| Corn Gluten Meal
| Corn Gluten Feed
|
| Australia |
| 1,800 |
|
| Bangladesh | 34,200 | 10,400 | 900 |
| Burma | 17,500 | 500 |
|
| Canada | 151,200 | 22,100 |
|
| Chile |
| 57,100 |
|
| China | 33,700 |
|
|
| Colombia | 68,100 | 33,400 | 13,900 |
| Costa Rica | 37,300 |
|
|
| Ecuador |
| 1,200 |
|
| Egypt | 36,900 | 17,500 |
|
| El Salvador | 23,700 | 5,200 |
|
| Guatemala | 29,800 | 4,300 |
|
| Honduras |
| 3,400 |
|
| Indonesia | 433,300 | 67,600 | 3,500 |
| Ireland | 107,100 |
| 119,000 |
| Israel | 91,500 |
| 75,700 |
| Japan | 215,200 | 3,700 |
|
| Malaysia | 22,000 | 23,100 |
|
| Mexico | 772,000 | 5,600 | 4,500 |
| Morocco | 70,400 |
| 29,400 |
| New Zealand | 112,900 |
| 7,200 |
| Peru |
| 3,500 |
|
| Philippines | 91,700 | 700 |
|
| Portugal |
|
| 5,000 |
| South Korea | 530,200 |
|
|
| Spain |
|
|
|
| Sri Lanka |
| 1,600 |
|
| Taiwan | 102,400 | 15,100 |
|
| Thailand | 269,400 | 12,800 | 1,200 |
| Tunisia |
| 600 |
|
| Turkey | 170,100 |
| 7,000 |
| UK | 49,100 |
| 7,300 |
| Vietnam | 468,600 | 7,600 | 1,500 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Total all | 4,096,000 | 299,900 | 281,600 |
@USDA GATS July 2020
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 370/390 m/t CNF Asia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 390/410 m/t CNF Asia USD 330/350 to Indonesia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia |
According to comments in this week's Jacobsen Report the meat and bone meal market in Asia moved a little lower again --- pushed down by weak US export prices. Supplies in the US are very large for meat and bone meal which is pushing product into the export market and moving prices lower. Australian prices also moved lower as exporters had to try to hold their own against the low cost US product.
In the domestic US market, the high slaughter rates for pork and beef are adding to supply. It is also said that higher poultry production is putting pressure on poultry meal and feathermeal prices.
Supply is expected to continue to grow, but at these low prices the demand will also pick up and could bring the price weakness to an end --- but that is probably several weeks in the future. For now, we are looking to steady to lower prices for domestic and export animal protein markets.
USA exports of animal protein – 5 months to May 2020
– major destinations – in m/t
| Destination | Meat and bone meal – includes poultry and pork meal
| Feather meal
|
| Burma | 900 |
|
| Cambodia | 200 |
|
| Canada | 21,400 | 1,900 |
| Chile | 2,400 | 10,500 |
| China | 75,200 | 1,500 |
| Colombia | 1,400 |
|
| Dominican Rep |
|
|
| Ecuador | 11,600 |
|
| Guatemala | 2,900 |
|
| Honduras | 3,400 | 200 |
| Indonesia | 92,200 | 18,800 |
| Malaysia | 6,300 |
|
| Mexico | 67,200 |
|
| Peru | 1,900 | 300 |
| Philippines | 19,600 | 300 |
| South Korea | 600 | 200 |
| Sri Lanka | 200 |
|
| Thailand | 14,400 |
|
| Vietnam | 52,600 | 2,800 |
|
|
|
|
| Total exports | 374.400 | 36,700 |
@USDA GATS July 2020
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Well, we are almost there on the quota with the total catch reaching 2.2 million m/t, so only need another 200,000 m/t to fill the quota. Fishmeal production should be up at about 540,000 m/t with fishoil at 73,000 m/t. At the current fishing level, it won't take long to complete the quota.
Export prices moved lower again this week, dropping about USD 50 m/t for all grades but most experts feel that prices will not go any lower. Sales booked are said to be getting close to 460,000 m/t so the supply situation will be tightening up and prices will tend to move higher.
China seems to have covered most of its needs for now but, with supply tightening, the Chinese buyers could be back in for one last bunch of buying.
As you can see by the price chart below, the prices from Chile have also moved lower this due to pressure from Peruvian prices.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,790 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,460 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,580 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,650 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,835 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 65/66 protein | 1100/1120 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1200/1220 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1250/1270 m/t | 1300/1320 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1300/1320 m/t | 1350/1370 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1350/1370 m/t | 1380/1400 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1400/1420 m/t | 1450/1470 m/t |
|
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2100 | 1900/2000 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2050/2150 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2150/2250 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2200/2300 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
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