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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 18, 2020
Grain and oilseed prices from the USA were calmer this week than last -- corn moved a couple of dollars lower per m/t while soybeans did rally by USD 3 or 4 an m/t and soymeal moved lower by about USD 7 m/t. Winter wheat prices were mainly steady but spring wheat did move at least USD 4 m/t higher.
The weather in the US for the next week to 10 days looks for higher than normal temperatures but, along with that, should come some quite good rainfall in dry areas of the corn belt. However, there are some areas that are very, very dry still which may have an effect on corn yields later in the season.
There was a drop in the price for ethanol futures this week due to poor gasoline consumption which may mean that production will be reduced and corn prices could fall. The advice from the exports seems to be that farmers should be selling corn on any price rallies but that buyers have no current need to buy as prices look to be moving lower.
Soybeans are said to be maintaining an upward trend in prices, for now, due to everyone thinking about China and how many soybeans they need and if they will come from the US. US soybeans are priced much better than Brazil these days so export sales should continue to be good.
A number or market expert were saying that wheat prices have little chance of moving lower with steady to higher being the most expected price activity for US wheat. There is a large chunk of wheat expected in the world this year but for now no one much is looking for lower prices.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
Reports this week say that a lack of available grain supply in the Black Sea is switching demand to North and South America and pushing up the freight rates from both areas. This happens every year as the Black Sea supply runs down prior to the harvest.
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $39/40.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $39/40.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $60/61.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $38/39.00 |
|
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| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $62/63.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 |
| X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $22/23.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $52/53.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 (10,000 dis) | $16/17.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $63/64.00 |
| X |
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|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 |
|
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| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $33/34.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | No info |
| X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | No info |
| X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $53/54.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $41/42.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $53/54.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | No info |
| X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $53/54.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $25/25.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, 50,000 m/t | $52/53.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India, 50,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $16/17.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $13/14.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $21/22.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $14/15.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| x |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $26/27.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $52/53.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1710 | Down 100 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 3025 | Down 308 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1504 | Down 83 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 910 | Up 75 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 457 | Up 22 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2020/August 2020
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 239/242 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 220/223 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 205/208 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 209/212 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 214/217 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 218/220 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 225/228 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 196/199 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 192/194 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 180/183 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 180/183 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 170/172 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 174/176 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 154/157 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 162/165 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 206/208 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 188/191 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 183/186 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 182/185 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 129/132 new crop | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 213/216 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 341/344 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 366/369 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 351/354 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 320/323 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 351/354 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 319/322 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 364/367 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 360/363 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 374/377 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 391/394 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 530>>560 m/t July/Sept | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 178/183 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 190/195 m/t | x |
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Both DDGS and corn gluten feed prices moved lower this week as they had to compete with lower corn and soymeal prices. DDGS exporters are said to be quite aggressive in their pricing as they try to build some export volume in the market.
Corn gluten meal prices were steady on the week with reports from the US of some logistics problems in getting export containers stuffed. Seems that the demand for loading containers has outrun the availability. It has also been said that reduced container vessel sailings due to COVID-19 are adding to the export logistics complications.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 370/390 m/t CNF Asia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 310/330 to Indonesia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia |
Another week of lower prices for animal proteins – well perhaps not for all, but certainly for meat and bone meal. It is reported that demand in major markets in Asia has fallen off but that with high export supply pries for MBM just keep slipping lower.
There seems to be a chance that export supplies from Australia will move lower as some processing facilities are closed due to COVID-19 outbreaks. Slaughter numbers are lower in Australia so supply should shrink.
USA domestic and export prices for meat and bone meal were lower – there just seems to be too much supply. Demand for MBM normally trends lower in the summer so it is tough to keep prices steady. According to the Jacobsen Report poultry meal demand by the pet food industry has dropped a little so we may see some weakness developing in poultry meal prices.
None of the animal protein experts are forecasting stronger prices – looks like steady to lower again this week.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Closer and closer we get to completing the current Peru fishing quota – as of late Thursday we were up at almost 2.3 million m/t of fish landed – so only about 125,000 m/t to go to completion. Some of the majors have completed the company quotas and are just processing like mad.
Sales to date are reported to be getting close to 500,000 m/t of fishmeal, the largest share being for destination China.
Prices this week for Super Prime have ranged between USD 1400 m/t and 1450 m/t. There was some significant Chinese buying at USD 1400 m/t which caused exporters to bump prices back up as unsold stocks are running down – said to be less than 100,000 m/t, which is not a lot to last until the next season.
Fishmeal stocks in China are reported to be much lower than this time last year but there should be some decent sized shipments of fishmeal from Peru to China in late July and August.
As the available supply of Peruvian fishmeal drops lower we will probably see export prices creep higher but most experts don't seem to anticipate a sudden increase in export prices --- perhaps that will happen when we get down to the last few thousand tons.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,790 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,480 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,580 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,650 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,835 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1150/1170 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1250/1270 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1300/1320 m/t | 1310/1330 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1350/1370 m/t | 1360/1380 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1400/1420 m/t | 1390/1410 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | 1460/1480 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2100 | 1900/2000 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2050/2150 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2150/2250 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2200/2300 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
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