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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT August 01, 2020
It was a week for lower prices --- not a great deal lower, just a little. US corn was down by USD 3 to 5 m/t -- soybeans lower by just about the same -- soymeal slipped by a couple of dollars – winter wheat prices were down by USD 3 m/t while spring wheat prices were unchanged.
Corn is said to be lower on the report of expected good crop yields and the forecast for good weather. Even with export sales being very good there seemed to be little to stop the corn market from drifting lower. It was reported that commodity funds are increasing their short position in corn so at least that share of the market seems to feel that corn prices are moving lower.
Soybeans were higher on Friday but still lower on the week. Some trade reports are saying that soybean prices will be moving higher on increased China purchases but this is not a widely accepted position. However, there do seem to be more people looking for higher prices than for lower. There is also said to be the trend developing in soymeal for higher prices.
US wheat prices were a little higher on Friday but did stay lower on the week. The small rally on Friday seemed to be due to bad news on wheat crops in Argentina, France and Russia. One rumor aside there will still be quite a bit of wheat in the world this year. However, there are concerns in the US that the current drought conditions in much of the wheat belt may leave ground moisture at a low level for the next seasons planting. But there are other sources that say the drought is diminishing and that all will be just fine.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $26/27.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $38/39.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $60/61.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Down $3.00 | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $42/43.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $41/42.00 |
| X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $38/39.00 |
| X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $62/63.00 |
| X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $41/2.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 |
| X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $38/39.00 |
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| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 (10,000 dis) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $22/23.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $35/36.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $30/31.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $54/55.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $32/33.00 |
| X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $26/26.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $51/52.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, 50,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India, 50,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $13/14.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $21/22.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $14/15.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $14/15.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $35/36.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $26/27.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $14/15.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $54/55.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1350 | Up 33 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 2206 | Up 122 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1227 | Up 29 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 870 | Down 45 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 474 | Up 3 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2020/October 2020
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 239>>246 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 223>>231 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 207/209 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 212/214 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 219/221 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 223/225 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 221/224 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 201/203 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 201/203 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 181/184 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 188/191 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 165/168 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 185/188 October | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 157/160 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 167/170 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 221/223 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 195/198 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 183/186 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 182/185 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 127/130 new crop | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 207>>211 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 345/348 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 370/373 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 366/369 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 336/339 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 366/369 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 336/339 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 366/369 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 362/365 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 391/394 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 391/394 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 565>>575 m/t Aug>>Oct | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 166/171 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 205>>213 m/t | X |
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Domestic USA prices for corn byproducts were steady this week but export prices seemed to be looking to get a little firmer – especially DDGS which is reported to be higher by about USD 5 m/t in NOLA.
Export demand for both DDGS and corn gluten meal is said to be very good but there are continued reports of problems shipping both out of the US in containers. There doesn't seem to be any problem with vessels shipments/part cargoes just a backlog in getting containers stuffed and exported.
As usual, prices will follow corn as closely as possible – so for now the overall trend seem to be for steady to lower prices.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 370/390 m/t CNF Asia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 310/330 to Indonesia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal (MBM) prices in Asia were steady this week but could be moving lower due to the Indonesia import ban. Australian prices look about the most vulnerable with export supply seemingly much higher than demand. There was a report that mixed species MBM from Australia was available at close to USD 300 m/t.
USA export and domestic prices for MBM were steady this week but poultry meal looks to want to move lower as demand has shown quite a drop.
The overall trend for animal protein prices is to lower levels in coming weeks as production is strong in all exporting countries but with the Indonesia import ban there are only limited destinations for the supply.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Looks like that is about it on the quota – up to 2.36 million m/t with catch dropping off. So perhaps the last 50,000 m/t of quota will never be landed. The talk has now switched to the next fishing season and what that quota may be – experts say 2.0 to 2.5 mm/t.
There has also been a new quota set for the South of Peru at 435,000 m/t.
Sales of current season are reported to be topping 500,000 m/t of fishmeal which leaves very little unsold. There does seem to be a little range in quoted prices this week but with so little to sell it is expected that prices will be steady to higher until the next fishing season.
There was a report of a sale to China from the next season – equivalent to USD 1,400 m/t Fob Peru for Super Prime. Quantity was said to be 15,000 m/t but it could all just be a story or someone's imagination.
The Peru fishmeal export numbers for January to June have China as the main destination again – taking about 69% of all fishmeal exports, 147,000 m/t. Japan, Germany and Vietnam were the next biggest fishmeal buyers with their total shipments of about 17% of exports – close to 36,000 m/t in total.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,785 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,535 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,575 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,650 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,835 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1100/1120 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1200/1220 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1250/1270 m/t | 1310/1330 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1300/1320 m/t | 1370/1390 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1350/1370 m/t | 1410/1430 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1400/1420 m/t | 1440/1460 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2100 | 1900/2000 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2050/2150 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2150/2250 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2200/2300 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
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