-------------------------
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT August 08, 2020
It was a down week for most US grain/oilseed prices this week: corn was down by about USD 3 m/t, soybeans down by almost USD 10 m/t, soymeal down by USD 9 to 10 m/t. Even wheat had a down week with winter wheat prices down by USD 10 to 14 m/t and spring wheat down by about USD 7 m/t.
Corn is said to be lower on the expectation of higher crop yields and moat expert are looking for the USDA to increase corn crop yields in next week's WASDE report. Some forecasting organizations are very enthusiastic about corn yields and are quite a bit higher that the last USDA forecast, with some calling for record crop yields. We will see what the USDA thinks this coming week.
Soybeans were lower for about the same reason as corn, as at least one report said: the soybean crop will be "bin-busting". The trade expects an increase in soybean yields to be shown in the USDA WASDE report next week but only a "moderate" increase. Currently the weather looks very good for the US soybean crop so higher yields could certainly happen.
The drop in wheat prices on the week is said to be related more to the weakness in corn and soybeans than to any factor with wheat. However, there could still be mountains of US wheat this year that has to fight with mountains of wheat everywhere for export business and normally mountains of unsold wheat lead to lower prices.
Looking at the prices this week and the WASDE next week and the trade attitudes it is tough to imagine prices rallying – at least not until the WASDE projections are seen.
Top 20 US Export Destinations for Grains and Oilseeds –
6 months to June 2020 – in m/t
| Country
| Wheat | Corn | Sorghum | Soybeans | Soymeal |
| Algeria | 65,300 |
|
|
|
|
| Bangladesh |
|
|
| 701,700 |
|
| Belgium |
|
|
|
| 28,700 |
| Brazil | 299,300 |
|
|
|
|
| Burma |
|
|
|
| 142,500 |
| Cameroon |
|
|
|
|
|
| Canada |
| 841,700 | 2,900 | 73,000 | 511,000 |
| China |
| 404,800 | 2,519,200 | 3,763,100 |
|
| Chile | 194,300 |
|
|
|
|
| Colombia | 398,000 | 3,044,600 |
| 291,900 | 708,300 |
| Costa Rica |
| 518,800 |
| 171,700 | 55,800 |
| Cuba |
| 29,000 |
|
|
|
| Denmark |
|
|
|
|
|
| Djibouti |
|
| 10,000 |
|
|
| Dominican Rep | 136,900 | 472,000 |
|
| 217,900 |
| Ecuador | 271,500 |
|
|
| 351,200 |
| El Salvador | 59,700 | 317,500 |
|
| 127,600 |
| Egypt |
|
|
| 2,217,300 |
|
| Eritrea |
|
| 33,000 |
|
|
| Ethiopia | 61,000 |
| 60,700 |
|
|
| France |
|
| 45,700 |
|
|
| Germany |
|
|
|
|
|
| Guatemala | 318,800 | 638,400 |
|
| 228,000 |
| Honduras | 139,200 | 380,800 |
|
| 160,000 |
| Indonesia | 726,700 |
|
| 1,106,800 |
|
| Iraq |
|
|
|
|
|
| Israel |
| 466,600 |
|
| 69,700 |
| Italy | 448,400 |
|
| 116,900 |
|
| Jamaica |
| 141,300 |
|
| 56,600 |
| Japan | 1,341,800 | 6,492,300 | 180,200 | 1,381,400 | 76,800 |
| Kenya |
|
|
|
|
|
| Madagascar |
|
| 1,200 |
|
|
| Malaysia | 160,300 |
|
| 347,200 |
|
| Mexico | 1,659,700 | 7,570,000 | 261,400 | 2,294,600 | 901,000 |
| Morocco |
| 43,400 |
|
| 246,000 |
| Netherlands |
|
|
| 864,900 |
|
| New Zealand |
|
|
|
|
|
| Nigeria | 712,500 |
|
|
|
|
| Nicaragua |
| 191,400 |
|
| 58,900 |
| Pakistan |
|
|
| 206,700 |
|
| Panama |
| 227,600 |
|
| 94,900 |
| Peru | 111,800 | 334,600 |
| 101,500 | 198,200 |
| Philippines | 1,702,100 | 70,900 |
|
| 1,133,800 |
| Portugal |
|
|
| 26,500 |
|
| Saudi Arabia |
| 561,100 |
| 65,100 |
|
| Somalia |
|
| 45,500 |
|
|
| South Africa |
|
|
|
|
|
| South Korea | 680,600 | 2,284,000 | 500 | 272,800 |
|
| Spain |
|
|
| 344,400 |
|
| Sri Lanka |
|
|
|
| 93,200 |
| Sudan |
|
| 79,400 |
|
|
| Taiwan | 481,200 | 534,200 |
| 673,500 |
|
| Thailand | 420,800 |
|
| 425,700 | 15,400 |
| Trinidad |
| 47,900 |
|
|
|
| Tunisia |
|
|
| 62,500 |
|
| Venezuela |
|
|
|
| 97,700 |
| Vietnam | 236,900 | 221,200 |
| 386,500 | 108,900 |
| Yemen | 399,400 |
|
|
|
|
| Zimbabwe |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total all | 12,872,300 | 26,819,200 | 3,236,400 | 16,576,600 | 6,548,400 |
@USDA GATS August 2020
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
According to the shipping trade, good demand for grain shipments out of the US are increasing the demand for Panamax vessels and pushing grain ocean freight rates higher from the US and South America. Panamax demand is said to be at its highest level in several weeks. On the other hand, Supramax rates out of the Black Sea have moved lower as vessel supply is rushing ahead of commodity supply.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $39/40.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $40/41.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $38/39.00 |
|
|
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $63/64.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $22/23.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $38/39.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $35/36.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $66/67.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $56/57.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $26/26.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $47/48.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $13/14.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $21/22.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $16/17.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $17/18.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $35/36.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $28/29.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $15/16.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1501 | Up 151 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 2401 | Up 195 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1563 | Up 336 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 855 | Down 15 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 471 | Down 3 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2020/October 2020
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 226>>233 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 213>>221 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 205/207 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 208/210 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 214/216 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 217/219 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 221/224 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 202/204 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 200/202 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 184/186 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 188/191 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 163/166 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 176/179 October | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 157/160 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 162/165 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 219/221 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 192/194 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 183/186 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 181/184 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 120/124 new crop | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 214/216 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 341/344 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 366/369 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 365/368 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 330/333 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 367/370 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 328/331 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 361/364 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 358/361 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 387/390 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 391/393 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 550>>565 m/t Aug>>Oct | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 170/175 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 204>>210 m/t | x |
|
|
|
|
With both corn and soymeal prices lower on the week, we should see some drop in corn byproduct prices, but it hasn't happened yet. Export prices for DDGS and corn gluten feed were steady but there did seem to be a couple of shippers offering corn gluten meal at slightly lower prices.
It has been reported that there are sellers indicating CGM prices CNF destination that are just slightly above the FOB NOLA prices that were reported by the US Grains Council this week. I suspect that the USGC indication prices at USD 550/565 are too high – perhaps by USD 30 m/t or so.
USA exports of corn by-products – 6 months to June 2020
– major destinations and selected countries – in m/t
| Country | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS
| Corn Gluten Meal
| Corn Gluten Feed
|
| Australia |
| 2,500 |
|
| Bangladesh | 40,900 | 11,400 | 900 |
| Burma | 20,100 | 600 |
|
| Canada | 182,300 | 26,400 |
|
| Chile |
| 96,700 |
|
| China | 51,200 |
|
|
| Colombia | 94,000 | 39,700 | 13,900 |
| Costa Rica | 45,800 |
|
|
| Ecuador |
| 1,600 |
|
| Egypt | 58,200 | 25,200 |
|
| El Salvador | 31,700 | 5,200 |
|
| Guatemala | 35,700 | 4,300 |
|
| Honduras |
| 3,500 |
|
| Indonesia | 490,100 | 72,900 | 5,600 |
| Ireland | 116,500 |
| 133,500 |
| Israel | 111,000 |
| 86,500 |
| Japan | 235,600 | 5,100 |
|
| Malaysia | 23,600 | 26,000 |
|
| Mexico | 869,900 | 6,200 | 6,000 |
| Morocco | 93,500 |
| 35,800 |
| New Zealand | 112,900 |
| 7,200 |
| Peru |
| 4,200 |
|
| Philippines | 115,400 | 800 |
|
| Portugal |
|
| 5,000 |
| South Korea | 599,400 | 100 |
|
| Spain |
|
|
|
| Sri Lanka |
| 2,600 |
|
| Taiwan | 124,600 | 17,900 | 100 |
| Thailand | 477,800 | 15,700 | 1,200 |
| Tunisia |
| 600 |
|
| Turkey | 257,000 |
| 7,000 |
| UK | 49,100 |
| 7,300 |
| Vietnam | 562,900 | 8,900 | 2,200 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Total all | 4,979,200 | 379,900 | 317,700 |
@USDA GATS August 2020
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 370/390 m/t CNF Asia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 310/330 to Indonesia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia |
Looking at the latest trade reports on animal protein exports, all markets seem to be steady this week. There is no demand from countries like Indonesia due to the Eid holidays, but then they do have an import ban in place.
Reviewing the trade reports at the end of the week the comments all seem to be for steady prices for now and with soymeal moving lower there would seem to be no reason at all to expect higher prices. So, for animal proteins, it looks like we will have a period of steady to lower prices.
USA exports of animal protein – 6 months to June 2020
– major destinations – in m/t
| Destination | Meat and bone meal – includes poultry and pork meal
| Feather meal
|
| Burma | 900 |
|
| Cambodia | 200 |
|
| Canada | 25,900 | 3,600 |
| Chile | 2,400 | 12,700 |
| China | 88,900 | 1,500 |
| Colombia | 1,400 |
|
| Dominican Rep |
|
|
| Ecuador | 14,700 |
|
| Guatemala | 3,400 |
|
| Honduras | 3,800 | 200 |
| Indonesia | 107,300 | 22,200 |
| Malaysia | 6,300 |
|
| Mexico | 88,300 |
|
| Peru | 3,200 | 400 |
| Philippines | 24,200 | 300 |
| South Korea | 600 | 200 |
| Sri Lanka | 200 |
|
| Thailand | 15,200 |
|
| Vietnam | 62,700 | 4,100 |
|
|
|
|
| Total exports | 450.200 | 42,400 |
@USDA GATS August 2020
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The official end to the fishing season has been set as August 15 but fishing is really completed as no one is out getting the last few remaining tons on the quota. Now we all are talking about the next season.
The next exploratory catch by IMARPE will begin on August 20, for five days, and will concentrate on juveniles and spawning.
According to trade reports the fishmeal production facilities are being revised to meet new COVID-19 requirements.
Fishmeal prices moved higher this week as there seemed to be quite a bit of buying interest in the small amount of unsold fishmeal on hand --- prices are said to have moved higher by USD 30 to 50 m/t. Interestingly, as the prices were moving higher in both Peru and Chile they seemed to be dropping a little lower in Europe.
Prices for the next fishing season look to be starting off at around USD 1400 m/t for Super Prime but very little fishmeal is said to have been booked.
With little left to sell and no new fishing for some weeks, it is expected that the Peru fishmeal export market will be quite calm until the next major announcement --- or rumor.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,795 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,475 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,460 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,500 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,800 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 65/66 protein | 1100/1120 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1230/1250 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1280/1300 m/t | 1360/1380 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1330/1350 m/t | 1410/1430 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1380/1400 m/t | 1450/1470 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1430/1450 m/t | 1480/1500 m/t |
|
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2100/2200 | 1900/2000 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2150/2250 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2250/2350 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2200/2300 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
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