-------------------------
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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT October 17, 2020
COVID-19 certainly seems to be on the rampage again. Here in Europe we have seen some countries experience a doubling of new cases in a week and almost every country has new case levels higher than seen in the peak last spring. We have not seen a great deal of effect on the grain/protein business, but port delays are always a risk as staffing problems get more complicated.
As an aside, some businesses are doing very well, the owner of a local wine/whiskey shop told me that he is having his best year in 15 years.
Other than soybeans, grain markets were higher this week with wheat being the item with the most strength. Wheat prices were up by between USD 6 and 10 m/t as fear of a La Nina event got the market moving higher. The concerns for what are still the drought in the US and Argentina and the effect that could have on the 2020/21 crop. The La Nina event is expected to make the drought situation even worse. World wheat demand is very strong which pulls US markets along. Looks like no chance of significantly lower prices until we get some improvement in the drought.
Corn prices were only up by about USD 3 m/t this week, nothing fantastic, just another week of slightly higher prices. Corn experts say that we are in a bull market and that for now there is little to indicate that price should move lower.
Soybeans were down on the week by about USD 5 m/t as needed rainfall in Brazil softened prices. Although the week was down the trend is still up as China buys up all the world's soybeans.
Top 20 US Export Destinations for Grains and Oilseeds –
8 months to August 2020 – in m/t
| Country
| Wheat | Corn | Sorghum | Soybeans | Soymeal |
| Algeria | 65,300 |
|
|
|
|
| Bangladesh |
|
|
| 871,400 |
|
| Belgium |
|
|
|
| 45,000 |
| Brazil | 462,900 |
|
|
|
|
| Burma |
|
|
|
| 156,300 |
| Cameroon |
|
| 1,500 |
|
|
| Canada |
| 1,191,500 | 4,200 | 115,000 | 696,900 |
| China |
| 2,035,000 | 3,265,900 | 6,659,000 |
|
| Chile | 322,100 |
|
|
|
|
| Colombia | 449,900 | 3,845,600 |
| 348,400 | 929,900 |
| Costa Rica |
| 587,100 |
| 201,200 |
|
| Cuba |
| 29,000 |
|
|
|
| Denmark |
|
|
|
| 38,300 |
| Djibouti |
|
| 10,000 |
|
|
| Dominican Rep | 168,900 | 472,000 |
|
| 301,400 |
| Ecuador | 344,400 |
|
|
| 422,600 |
| El Salvador | 86,200 | 402,400 |
|
| 171,500 |
| Egypt |
|
|
| 2,592,500 |
|
| Eritrea |
|
| 33,000 |
|
|
| Ethiopia | 91,000 |
| 60,700 |
|
|
| France |
|
|
| 59,600 |
|
| Germany |
|
|
|
|
|
| Guatemala | 408,600 | 912,000 |
|
| 314,000 |
| Honduras | 184,400 | 492,900 |
|
| 188,600 |
| Indonesia | 926,900 |
|
| 1,520,000 |
|
| Iraq |
|
|
|
|
|
| Israel |
| 480,700 |
| 69,500 | 100,200 |
| Italy | 603,100 |
|
| 208,700 |
|
| Jamaica |
| 172,100 |
|
| 66,600 |
| Japan | 1,797,800 | 8,396,700 | 191,200 | 1,616,800 | 134,100 |
| Kenya |
|
|
|
|
|
| Madagascar |
|
| 6,200 |
|
|
| Malaysia | 247,800 |
|
| 409,600 |
|
| Mexico | 2,211,700 | 10,043,600 | 262,200 | 3,049,600 | 1,179,200 |
| Morocco |
| 52,200 |
|
| 281,100 |
| Netherlands |
|
|
| 1,740,800 |
|
| New Zealand |
| 36,600 | 34,700 |
|
|
| Nigeria | 967,600 |
|
|
|
|
| Nicaragua |
| 250,300 |
|
| 78,800 |
| Pakistan |
|
|
| 265,000 |
|
| Panama |
| 320,600 |
|
| 127,200 |
| Peru | 142,700 | 553,500 |
| 144,700 | 234,700 |
| Philippines | 2,313,500 | 87,200 |
|
| 1,640,600 |
| Portugal |
|
|
| 26,500 |
|
| Saudi Arabia |
| 704,100 |
| 65,100 |
|
| Somalia |
|
| 46,700 |
|
|
| South Africa |
|
| 4,200 |
|
|
| South Korea | 927 | 2,610,200 | 500 | 283,100 |
|
| Spain |
|
|
| 463,500 |
|
| Sri Lanka |
|
|
|
| 117,800 |
| Sudan |
|
| 161,600 |
|
|
| Taiwan | 792,200 | 617,900 |
| 756,200 |
|
| Thailand | 542,700 |
|
| 479,500 | 16,000 |
| Trinidad |
| 67,000 |
|
|
|
| Tunisia |
|
|
| 62,500 |
|
| UK |
|
|
| 19,700 |
|
| Venezuela |
|
|
|
| 136,800 |
| Vietnam | 403,500 | 221,600 |
| 446,000 | 116,400 |
| Yemen | 697,100 |
| 7,100 |
|
|
| Zimbabwe |
|
| 30.800 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total all | 18,507,800 | 36,231,300 | 4,123,300 | 23,682,400 | 8,789,000 |
@USDA GATS October 2020
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $27/27.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1477 | Down 415 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 2406 | Down 1149 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1323 | Down 116 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 976 | Down 6 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 599 | Up 4 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2020/January 2021
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 278/280 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 273/275 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 244/246 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 250/252 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 245/247 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 248/250 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 232/235 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 244/246 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 234/236 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 208/211 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 211/214 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 216>>208 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 225>>217 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 217/219 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 228/230 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 224/226 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 223/225 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 225/227 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 223/225 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD no prices | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 277/280 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 437/440 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 462/465 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 469/472 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 432/435 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 472/475 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 441/444 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 448/451 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 457/460 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 495/498 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD no prices | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 560>>580 m/t Nov>>Dec | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 220/225 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 256>>248 m/t | X |
|
|
|
|
DDGS export prices are reported to be up by about USD 7 m/t this week, following corn and protein prices higher. As stated by the US Grains Council, the current DDGS price levels are at 115% of cash corn which is higher than the three year average level of 109%. DDGS export demand continues to be very good.
Corn gluten meal price continued higher this week as is expected with higher protein prices and much higher fishmeal prices. These days no one is forecasting a drop in corn gluten meal prices.
As usual, corn gluten feed chugs along with nothing much exciting happening.
USA exports of corn by-products – 8 months to August 2020
– major destinations and selected countries – in m/t
| Country | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS
| Corn Gluten Meal
| Corn Gluten Feed
|
| Australia |
| 4,000 |
|
| Bangladesh | 86,800 | 17,000 | 1,000 |
| Burma | 32,200 | 1,000 |
|
| Canada | 257,400 | 34,500 |
|
| Chile |
| 96,700 |
|
| China | 126,800 |
|
|
| Colombia | 111,900 | 47,300 | 14,200 |
| Costa Rica | 54,600 |
|
|
| Ecuador |
| 2,100 |
|
| Egypt | 105,700 | 51,400 | 1,700 |
| El Salvador | 45,900 | 5,200 |
|
| Guatemala | 44,000 | 4,300 |
|
| Honduras |
| 4,500 |
|
| Indonesia | 606,100 | 81,700 | 7,500 |
| Ireland | 169,300 |
| 198,600 |
| Israel | 151,600 |
| 114,100 |
| Japan | 290,800 | 12,700 |
|
| Malaysia | 32,300 | 33,500 |
|
| Mexico | 1,171,000 | 8,900 | 9,600 |
| Morocco | 127,200 |
| 42,600 |
| New Zealand | 174,400 |
| 19,500 |
| Oman |
| 500 |
|
| Peru |
| 5,700 |
|
| Philippines | 182,300 | 1,300 |
|
| Portugal |
|
| 5,000 |
| South Korea | 831,000 | 500 |
|
| Spain | 20,700 |
|
|
| Sri Lanka |
| 4,300 | 300 |
| Taiwan | 165,400 | 23,800 | 100 |
| Thailand | 661,800 | 20,400 | 1,800 |
| Tunisia |
| 600 |
|
| Turkey | 481,100 |
| 11,400 |
| UK | 104,200 |
| 26,900 |
| Vietnam | 802,800 | 11,000 | 2,700 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Total all | 7,447,600 | 484,500 | 469,600 |
@USDA GATS October 2020
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 455/475 m/t CNF Asia USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 525/545 m/t CNF China USD 400/420 to Indonesia USD 510/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia |
There were reports this week that prices for meat and bone meal into Indonesia may have taken a jump higher, although this is not seen in published prices. Buyers are said to be favoring origins with shorter shipping times than the US and seem willing to pay the higher prices asked for Australian and New Zealand supplies.
Higher soybean/soymeal prices have also kept meat and bone meal prices steady to higher in most export markets.
In the US markets prices for all animal proteins were quite steady – demand remained good but there was adequate supply.
The strength in all protein markets, animal and vegetable, should meal that for now we will be looking for steady to higher prices.
USA exports of animal protein – 8 months to August 2020
– major destinations – in m/t
| Destination | Meat and bone meal – includes poultry and pork meal
| Feather meal
|
| Canada | 35,900 | 4,700 |
| Chile | 2,400 | 16,400 |
| China | 120,300 | 1,500 |
| Colombia | 1,400 |
|
| Ecuador | 20,400 |
|
| Guatemala | 5,600 |
|
| Honduras | 4,800 | 400 |
| Indonesia | 124,700 | 26,800 |
| Malaysia | 6,300 |
|
| Mexico | 131,800 |
|
| Peru | 5,100 | 500 |
| Philippines | 39,100 | 1,200 |
| Thailand | 16,900 |
|
| Vietnam | 96,700 | 8,500 |
|
|
|
|
| Total exports | 629.500 | 60,600 |
@USDA GATS October 2020
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishmeal prices in Peru are reported to have made a jump higher as China got back into the market after their holiday period. There was not a great many new bookings, only about 10,000 m/t, but all seemed to be at significantly higher prices – up by about USD 80 m/t. There were comments in trade reports that producers should find the new price levels extremely attractive and may get them interested in selling more product.
The IMARPE research cruise is moving along but has fallen a little behind schedule.
A new research cruise is to be conducted in the South of Peru to determine if the Southern fishing area can be expanded. The restricted fishing area this year has meant that there has been no catch at all in the South since its fishing period was opened on August 01.
As a closing note, MSI Ceres has reiterated that they think the fishmeal presales could reach 200,000 m/t and currently may be as high as 175,000 m/t. They also pointed out that prices have moved up by USD 200 m/t since presales began and they ask if prices will go higher.
Also, seems that there are a number of reasons for the price strength: questions about the size of the next quota, worries about a La Nina, concern over a late quota and the risk of poor fishing. Most buyers seem to feel that it is better to be long fishmeal these days rather than wait for the new quota.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,590 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,430 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,450 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,490 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,600 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 65/66 protein | 1220/1240 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1330/1350 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1430/1450 m/t | 1380/1400 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1480/1500 m/t | 1430/1450 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1530/1550 m/t | 1480/1500 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1550/1570 m/t |
|
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2100/2200 | 2100/2200 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2150/2250 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2250/2350 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2400/2500 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
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