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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT October 03, 2020
Another good rally in grain/oilseed prices this week with everything moving higher. Corn prices were up by USD 5 to 7 m/t, soybeans up by USD 7 or 8 m/t, soymeal up by USD 14 m/t and winter wheat up by USD 10 to 13 m/t. Only US spring wheat seemed to be able to get by with a small rally – only being up by about USD 1 m/t.
The market closed on Friday with a little weakness after a couple of weeks of strength. This probably doesn't mean lower prices just that buyers and sellers took a rest on Friday. There is a feeling that the announcement of Donald Trump having COVID 19 will push prices higher on Monday as everyone gets over excited and perhaps over concerned.
There was some comment in trade reports that corn could see a small pull back in prices due to harvest pressure, but some experts were saying that the USDA will likely lower its corn yield forecast next week which could end any small weakness in corn prices.
Soybean prices were also lower just a little on Friday on some strong harvest pressure, but prices were still up significantly on the week. Like corn, experts are thinking that the USDA will lower its soybean crop yield numbers in this week's report.
Wheat prices were strong all week in the US but this week wheat prices everywhere were very strong. One would have great difficulty in finding a wheat exporting country where wheat prices had moved lower. The stories of new wheat export quota from Russia for 2021 added to the upward pressure on wheat prices. However, a number of experts commented that a restrictive quota seems highly unlikely, especially as Russia is trying to expand its North Africa/Middle East wheat business. As with most other items, it looks like we are in for steady to higher wheat prices.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Corrected | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $20/21.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
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| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $27/27.50 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $44/45.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 2020 | Up 353 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 3987 | Up 1072 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1373 | Down 7 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 991 | Down 1 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 593 | Up 8 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR October 2020/December 2020
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 258/261 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 253/256 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 234/236 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 235/237 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 233/235 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 234/236 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 226/229 new | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 233/235 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 213/215 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 200/203 Nov | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 200/203 Nov | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 197/199 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 210/212 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 198/201 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 201/204 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 208/210 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 195/198 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 193/196 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 197/200 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 148/151 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 266/269 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 417/420 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 442/445 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 438/441 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 407/410 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 436/439 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 411/414 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 425/428 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 429/432 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 454/457 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 428/431 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 540>>560 m/t Oct>>DEC | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 205/210 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 235/238 m/t | x |
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There was certainly no weakness in corn byproduct prices this week as the rally in corn and soymeal prices kept the market strong. Export business was said to be very good late in the week as buyers jumped in for both DDGS and corn gluten meal as they expected even higher prices in weeks to come.
Depending on the supplier and the shipment month, DDGS prices were up as much as USD 16 m/t for some positions. Corn gluten meal also showed strength with some exporters up by as much as USD 30 m/t in containers. It looks like buyers that were waiting for lower price may have waited a little too long as most experts seem to feel that we will be seeing these prices and higher up to the end of 2020.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 455/475 m/t CNF Asia USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 520/540 m/t CNF China USD 400/420 to Indonesia USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia |
Prices for animal proteins have not moved up as quickly as soymeal prices but it will happen. Late reports say that meat and bone meal offers were up by about USD 20 m/t from Australia which is not as yet reflected in the prices above. Poultry meal prices from Australia are also expected to move higher.
Domestic USA prices were all up a little this week as the market did follow soymeal prices with experts saying that prices should continue higher next week as they are still lagging behind the rally in soymeal.
Looking at all the trade reports at the end of the week, no one is looking for softer prices. With soymeal prices expected to stay up for the balance of 2020 then we expect to see animal protein prices steady to higher.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
All is quiet in Peru with no fishing being done and the IMARPE cruise still underway. Word is that the cruise will end by mid-November but that is actually quite late to start the fishing season. There was some mention that the fishing could start earlier if preliminary IMARPE results look OK.
Also, nothing much happening with new sales ---- producers seem to have sold as much in advance as they want while buyers are also hanging back waiting to see how things go for the new fishing season. Pre-season sales are still said to be about 150,000 m/t.
With China off on holidays for a few days, markets are noticeably quiet.
Statistics from China show that Peru is still the number one fishmeal supplier with 35% of the business from January to August – a total of 294,000 m/t of Peru fishmeal imported. Chile comes second with 10.7% - 88,800 m/t – followed by Vietnam with 9.4% - 77,900 m/t – and Thailand at 7.6% - 62,900 m/t. The next two major suppliers are Russia and Mozambique at about 60,000 m/t each. In all China lists 22 countries as supplying fishmeal so far in 2020.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,585 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,435 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,450 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,490 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,530 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1120/1140 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1210/1230 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1320/1340 m/t | 1320/1340 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1370/1390 m/t | 1370/1390 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1420/1440 m/t | 1420/1440 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1470/1490 m/t | 1450/1470 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2100 | 1900/2000 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2050/2150 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2150/2250 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2200/2300 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
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