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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 21, 2020
The coming week is a short work week in the USA due to the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday which some companies will continue into Friday.
Looking back at this week, it was a up week for everything but wheat: corn was up by USD 3 or 4 m/t, soybeans were up by at least USD 12 m/t and soymeal was about USD 7 m/t higher.
According to trade reports at the end of the week much of the rally in the market was related to concerns over the weather in South America – where everything seems to be bone dry.
There was some comment in the trade that soybeans could be reaching to top of its uptrend as volume in futures has slacked off and some "longs" have been liquidating and taking their profits on the rally. Of course, much of this "long" situation may just be due to the short work week this week and the increased risk that traders and speculators see in a 4 day weekend.
With corn, there was very little exciting news in the market and prices seem to be continuing along slowly in the trend to higher levels. As soon as corn futures sell off a bit there seems to be a good level of buying interest, so corn prices seem to be quite happy at this level as it wends its way to higher prices.
Wheat didn't do too much this week but there were some trade comments that the long term bullish wheat market may just be getting close to turning into a bear market. If not totally a bear market than at least decent drop in prices from current levels.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | no prices | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
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| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $31/31.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $23/24.00 | Down $6.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1134 | Up 19 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 1430 | Down 77 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1326 | Up 128 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 915 | Up 31 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 598 | Up 12 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR December 2020/February 2021
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 268/271 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 263/266 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 251/253 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 256/258 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 253/255 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 256/258 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 262/265 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 251/253 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 243/245 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 230/233 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 222/225 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 222>>216 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 233>>223 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 230/233 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 236/239 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 243/245 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 237/240 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 236/239 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 234/237 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 168/171 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 286/288 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 476/478 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 501/503 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 499/501 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 460/463 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 503/506 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 461/464 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 477/480 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 503/506 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 466/467 January New crop | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 475/480 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 640/650 m/t Dec/Feb | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 226/230 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 275/280 m/t | x |
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DDGS continues to move higher since it follows corn/soymeal prices. Depending on who you talk to, DDGS export prices are up by USD 5 to 10 m/t. Corn gluten meal is very strong and even poor old corn gluten feed was able to put on a rally to higher levels.
As with almost everything, no one is forecasting lower prices in the near term. Certainly not as long as demand stays strong and corn and soybeans keep moving higher.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 520/530 m/t CNF China USD 500/520 to Indonesia USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 920/940 m/t CNF Asia |
Domestic USA prices moved higher in a pre-Thanksgiving holiday rush to buy – this is on November 26 with many companies closed for the 26th and 27th making it into a 4 day weekend and a three day work week.
There is no reason again this week to expect any lower prices for animal protein.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in Peru looks to be doing quite well with the total landed up to the 19 0f November at just over 318,000 m/t, getting the remaining quota down to 2.46 million m/t.
Export fishmeal prices in Peru have dropped by about USD 100 m/t as buyers and sellers start to get used to the high fishing quota. There are now a number of mini-bans in place that will have some effect on the catch numbers for the coming week. Trade reports seem to feel that prices may be steady at this new lower level and point out that the soymeal/fishmeal value ratio is at the lowest level, favoring fishmeal, in quite a long time.
According to the MSI Ceres report this week about 140,000 m/t of new fishmeal business was done this past week, bringing the total sold up to 360,000 m/t – 55% of full quota fishmeal production. The trade says that some producers have stopped selling until they see how the longer term fishing situation develops. There have been years in the past when producers sold more fishmeal than was ever produced – having a generous quota doesn't mean that every ton of fish will be landed. Caution is the buzzword early in the fishing season.
The political situation in Peru has gotten very and in the past week and we all are hoping that things can be solved and that there will be no effect on the fishing industry. A new country president has been named -- the next election will be held in April 2021. It is also reported that a high percentage of the new President's new cabinet members have no strong party affiliation which may make getting things done a little easier.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,590 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,440 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,465 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,515 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,620 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1200/1220 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1280/1300 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1350/1370 m/t | 1380/1400 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1400/1420 m/t | 1430/1450 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | 1480/1500 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1550/1570 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2100/2150 | 2200/2300 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2150/2200 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2250/2300 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2400/2500 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
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