-------------------------
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 07, 2020
The drop that we saw in grain prices last week ended up being just a one week price correction as the march to higher prices continue this week. Soybeans were the strongest item this week moving up by about USD 16 m/t with soymeal up by as much as USD 15 for early 2021 positions. Corn prices only moved up by USD 4 or 5 m/t with most US wheat prices moving up by close to USD 5 m/t.
Soybeans were up on strong export sales and weather concerns in South America. There is concern about La Nina driven drought in parts of Argentina. Dry weather in Brazil is also said to be a risk to the soybean harvest and may push it off for a couple of weeks. Chinese demands for soybeans seems to have moved to the US due to Chinese concern over the Brazil harvest. There was also quite a lot of speculation about what next week's WASDE report will say about soybeans and this helped push prices higher.
Corn prices in the US could have been higher as there seemed to be lots of bullish news for corn: increased import requirements by China, lower corn production by the Ukraine with the expectation than the Russian corn crop could also be lower. The WASDE numbers next week could also add to the bullish market for corn. Looking at the situation today there seems to be little reason to expect lower corn prices.
US Wheat prices moved higher on both market excitement and the expectation of tightening US wheat supplies.
Top 20 US Export Destinations for Grains and Oilseeds –
9 months to September 2020 – in m/t
| Country
| Wheat | Corn | Sorghum | Soybeans | Soymeal |
| Algeria | 65,300 |
|
|
|
|
| Bangladesh |
|
|
| 924,300 |
|
| Brazil | 705,100 |
|
|
|
|
| Burma |
|
|
|
| 176,200 |
| Cameroon |
|
| 2,700 |
|
|
| Canada |
| 1,387,800 | 5,000 | 146,500 | 794,700 |
| China |
| 3,018,700 | 3,723,600 | 11,727,100 |
|
| Colombia | 487,500 | 4,270,900 |
| 375,800 | 1,028,800 |
| Costa Rica |
| 663,200 |
|
|
|
| Djibouti |
|
| 10,000 |
|
|
| Dominican Rep |
| 472,000 |
|
| 352,300 |
| Ecuador | 366,400 |
|
|
| 422,600 |
| El Salvador |
| 443,400 |
|
| 179,800 |
| Egypt |
|
|
| 2,996,100 |
|
| Eritrea |
|
| 33,000 |
|
|
| Ethiopia | 128,400 |
| 60,700 |
|
|
| Guatemala | 457,600 | 980,600 |
|
| 343,000 |
| Honduras |
| 517,600 |
|
| 231,000 |
| Indonesia | 1,000,000 |
|
| 1,696,800 |
|
| Israel |
| 488,400 |
|
|
|
| Italy | 713,800 |
|
| 264,800 | 107,200 |
| Jamaica |
| 186,400 |
|
|
|
| Japan | 1,986,100 | 8,860,800 | 194,500 | 1,805,800 | 164,200 |
| Madagascar |
|
| 7,700 |
|
|
| Malaysia | 249,400 |
|
| 455,700 |
|
| Mexico | 2,486,600 | 11,080,300 | 263,100 | 3,546,000 | 1,327,100 |
| Morocco |
|
|
|
| 348,000 |
| Netherlands |
|
|
| 1,970,800 |
|
| New Zealand |
| 36,600 |
|
|
|
| Nigeria | 1,054,800 |
|
|
|
|
| Nicaragua |
| 272,700 |
|
|
|
| Pakistan |
|
|
| 460,500 |
|
| Panama |
| 345,300 |
|
| 137,000 |
| Peru | 176,100 | 637,900 |
| 191,900 | 262,900 |
| Philippines | 2,677,300 |
| 600 |
| 1,846,100 |
| Portugal |
|
|
| 71,500 |
|
| Saudi Arabia |
| 704,100 |
|
|
|
| Somalia |
|
| 46,800 |
|
|
| South Africa |
|
| 4,200 |
|
|
| South Korea | 1,071,400 | 2,883,400 | 1,000 | 346,400 |
|
| Spain |
|
|
| 543,500 |
|
| Sri Lanka |
|
|
|
| 127,500 |
| Sudan |
|
| 161,600 |
|
|
| Taiwan | 890,600 | 652,200 |
| 823,500 |
|
| Thailand | 629,300 |
|
| 517,700 | 16,100 |
| Trinidad |
| 67,000 |
|
|
|
| Venezuela |
|
|
|
| 137,400 |
| Vietnam |
|
|
| 631,200 | 124,300 |
| Yemen | 741,100 |
|
|
|
|
| Zimbabwe |
|
| 30,800 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total all | 21,345,800 | 40,044,100 | 4,589,200 | 31,579,100 | 9,753,300 |
@USDA GATS November 2020
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $29/29.50 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Down $4.00 | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $29/30.00 | Up $6.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $43/44.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $28/29.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1196 | Down 87 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 1739 | Down 136 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1190 | Down 99 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 901 | Down 48 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 583 | Down 8 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR December 2020/February 2021
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 272/274 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 270/272 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 251/253 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 255/257 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 259/261 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 256/258 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 248/251 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 251/253 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 241/243 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 224/227 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 221/224 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 215/218 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 233/236 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 218/221 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 229/232 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 238/240 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 237/240 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 238/241 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 232/235 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 159/162 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 281/283 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 465/468 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 490/493 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 495/498 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 453/456 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 496/499 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 462/465 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 458/461 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 484/487 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 460/465 January New crop | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 475/480 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 605/615 m/t Dec/Feb | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 213/218 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 270>>260 m/t | x |
|
|
|
|
USA DDGS prices continue strong due to high domestic demand from the feed industry but also push higher due to the rally in soymeal. Trade publications are saying that US DDGS prices will be steady to higher well into he first months of 2021. Export demand for DDGS is very good with export buyers taking advantage of lower ocean freight rates.
Corn gluten meal prices have also moved higher – following soymeal – with no one saying that prices will be coming down. Current US CGM CNF prices to some markets, like Egypt, are close to USD 200 m/t higher than they were only a few weeks ago. However, higher prices have not slowed the export demand as, for now, corn gluten meal is about the only high protein feed meal available. Fishmeal is in short supply until the new season and many import markets can't use animal proteins – so, this just keeps CGM prices strong.
USA exports of corn by-products – 9 months to September 2020
– major destinations and selected countries – in m/t
| Country | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS
| Corn Gluten Meal
| Corn Gluten Feed
|
| Australia |
| 4,400 |
|
| Bangladesh | 108,600 | 18,800 | 1,000 |
| Canada | 290,800 | 38,900 |
|
| Chile |
| 97,500 |
|
| China | 168,900 |
|
|
| Colombia | 147,100 | 59,800 | 20,500 |
| Egypt | 162,000 | 67,300 | 2,600 |
| El Salvador | 45,900 | 5,200 |
|
| Guatemala | 44,000 | 4,500 |
|
| Honduras |
| 5,100 |
|
| Indonesia | 673,200 | 89,100 | 7,700 |
| Ireland | 224,800 |
| 242,200 |
| Israel | 180,100 |
| 157,400 |
| Japan | 405,800 | 13,400 |
|
| Malaysia | 32,300 | 37,500 |
|
| Mexico | 1,265,600 | 10,100 | 11,800 |
| Morocco | 150,100 |
| 50,600 |
| New Zealand | 211,400 |
| 25,500 |
| Oman |
| 500 |
|
| Peru |
| 6,600 |
|
| Philippines | 230,100 | 1,400 |
|
| Portugal |
|
| 5,000 |
| South Korea | 932,800 | 500 |
|
| Spain | 64,700 |
|
|
| Sri Lanka |
| 4,300 | 300 |
| Taiwan | 183,200 | 26,100 | 100 |
| Thailand | 712,500 | 22,600 | 1,900 |
| Tunisia |
| 600 |
|
| Turkey | 567,300 |
| 31,900 |
| UK | 104,200 |
| 26,900 |
| Vietnam | 927,500 | 12,000 | 2,700 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Total all | 8,671,400 | 547,300 | 605,400 |
@USDA GATS November 2020
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 520/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 510/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 880/900 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 530/540 m/t CNF China USD 470/490 to Indonesia USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 920/940 m/t CNF Asia |
With the strong rally in soymeal prices again this week there was no reason at all for animal protein prices to move lower. Meat and bone meal prices were steady almost everywhere but could easily see a bump higher next week, especially if soymeal stays strong.
In Australia, domestic meat and bone meal prices look to want to move higher as the cattle slaughter levels are below average and vegetable protein prices are strong. Poultry meal prices from all origins were higher this week as pet food demand has become very good again.
USA export prices look like they want to move higher following the strength seen in domestic US prices. This week, no one is expecting lower prices. As with other markets, pet food demand for animal proteins is very strong and this, along with higher soymeal prices, is helping to push up US prices.
USA exports of animal protein – 9 months to September 2020
– major destinations – in m/t
| Destination | Meat and bone meal – includes poultry and pork meal
| Feather meal
|
| Canada | 40,700 | 5,200 |
| Chile | 2,400 | 18,200 |
| China | 135,400 | 1,500 |
| Colombia | 1,400 |
|
| Ecuador | 22,800 |
|
| Guatemala | 6,000 |
|
| Honduras | 5,600 | 700 |
| Indonesia | 157,000 | 30,000 |
| Malaysia | 6,300 |
|
| Mexico | 144,500 |
|
| Peru | 6,300 | 700 |
| Philippines | 47,100 | 2,000 |
| Thailand | 17,500 |
|
| Vietnam | 112,400 | 9,000 |
|
|
|
|
| Total exports | 710.500 | 67,800 |
@USDA GATS November 2020
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Nothing new to report from the IMARPE research cruise but the trade seems to feel that some information has been passed to the government for pre-quota analysis. According to the MSI Ceres report this week, there was an operational problem with the research vessel which has delayed things a little. Everyone had expected results and a quota this week but now it looks like next week – we hope.
Prices in Peru are steady with little or no market activity --- both buyers and sellers are waiting for the word on the new quota. The average guess for the quota is still at about 2.0 million m/t. The trade also seems to feel that the current price levels are based on an assumed quota of 2.0 mm/t with no one expecting any prices changes if that is the actual quota level. So, the assumption for this week is for steady prices until we get well into the next season with the fishing success then setting the price trend.
Nothing more to say on Peru fishmeal this week as we are all just holding our breath as we wait for the new quota and the start date.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,575 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,450 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,470 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,520 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,560 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 65/66 protein | 1250/1270 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1330/1350 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1400/1420 m/t | 1430/1450 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | 1480/1500 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1530/1550 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1600/1620 m/t |
|
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2150/2250 | 2200/2300 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2200/2300 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2300/2400 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2400/2500 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.