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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 14, 2020
This was another week of most everything being higher in price --- only US wheat moved a little lower. Soybeans again were the strongest in the market with prices up by about USD 16 m/t while soymeal moved anywhere from USD 6 to 12 m/t higher. Corn prices didn't really do anything too exciting this week and were only up by a maximum of about USD 3 m/t. Wheat prices were a little lower with prices down between USD 1 and 3 m/t.
Corn prices had moved quite a bit higher early in the week after the WASDE report but did move back lower to being up just a little after everyone had had a chance to look closely at the WASDE numbers.
Exports are saying that the WASDE report was bullish for corn and that the trend is to higher price levels in coming weeks --- especially if China jumps into the corn market or if the weather changes in South America.
The WASDE report on soybeans was also bullish with the US 2020/21 ending stocks of soybeans dropping by 35%, although world stocks will only by down slightly according to the USDA. Both Argentina and the US are projected to have smaller crops this year, but still more than last year. Other than China, the main factor for soybean prices these days is, much like for corn, the weather situation in South America.
Some grain experts have said that the WASDE report for wheat was a non-event with nothing new and interesting being reported. The report showed almost no change in world wheat production or in export and import numbers – just a nice quiet little, unexciting report.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
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| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $31/31.50 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1115 | Down 81 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 1507 | Down 232 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1198 | Up 8 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 884 | Down 17 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 586 | Up 3 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR December 2020/February 2021
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 269/272 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 265/268 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 250/252 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 253/255 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 257/259 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 255/257 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 250/253 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 250/252 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 243/245 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 230/233 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 221/224 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 222>>217 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 235>>229 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 220/223 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 230/233 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 240/242 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 237/240 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 236/239 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 240/243 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 159/162 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 281/283 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 472/475 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 497/500 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 493/496 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 461/464 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 503/506 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 466/469 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 470/473 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 492/495 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 465/468 January New crop | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 475/480 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 608/615 m/t Dec/Feb | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 214/219 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 272/275 m/t | X |
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One industry source was saying that Nov/Dec corn gluten meal was being moved higher by some exporters who sold short in hopes of lower prices and now are having to cover their needs quickly before the shipping slots all fill up.
There is no one out there who is looking for lower prices for Nov/Dec but there are some who feel that there may be a little lower price in Jan/Feb 2021 if the spot premium works out of the market.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 520/530 m/t CNF China USD 460/480 to Indonesia USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 920/940 m/t CNF Asia |
Both feathermeal and poultry byproduct meal were also trending higher as demand from importers has been very good.
In the US, domestic feathermeal prices were stronger on very good demand which also pushed export prices higher. US meat and bone meal prices were steady on the week but any further rally in vegetable protein prices should help to move MBM prices higher.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
So here we are off to fishing with the new Peru quota of 2.78 million m/t. So far only one day of fishing reported which totaled 22,200 m/t landed. The fishing period runs until the 31st of January 2021.
With the quota at this level, the fishmeal production at full quota would be up at 662,000 m/t with about 225,000 m/t of production presold.
Fishing started on November 12, so to the end of the season it will be about 64 days, which would mean an average of over 43,000 m/t of catch per day to reach the full quota level. This might be tough to achieve in January due to normally poor fishing, but we will have to see how the fishing goes for November and December before worrying too much about January.
Fishmeal prices are still steady, but the trade feeling seems to be that if fishing starts off strong then prices could slip lower. Everyone will be watching the daily catch numbers very closely and there are some in the trade who feel that the quota cannot be reached unless there is some exceptionally good early fishing.
We just have to watch what is happening in Peru for the next couple of weeks in order to have any idea what is happening with prices into 2021.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,590 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,440 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,470 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,520 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,625 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1250/1270 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1330/1350 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1400/1420 m/t | 1430/1450 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | 1480/1500 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1530/1550 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1600/1620 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2150/2250 | 2200/2300 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2200/2300 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2300/2400 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2400/2500 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
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