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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 06, 2021
This week, the pre-WASDE week, was a down week for almost all USA grain and oilseed prices. Corn prices dropped by about USD 6 m/t with soybeans down by around USD 15 m/t. US winter wheat was not too much lower at USD 2 to 3 m/t lower while spring wheat was very weak dropping by almost USD 15 m/t.
Trade reports say that spring wheat prices were lower due to pre-WASDE concern coupled with below expected export numbers and weakness seen in European wheat markets. There was also said to be quite a bit of long liquidation in the US futures market as long holder were trying to lock in their profits just in case of a bearish WASDE report.
The weakness in soybean prices was also WASDE related as a number of experts are saying that the USDA could increase its crop yield and overall production levels. Nothing like the expectation of more soybeans to push prices lower.
Corn's small rally was also WASDE related as a minimal increase in corn yields is expected. Corn exports were good for the week but are still below the 4 week average.
All grain/oilseed prices in the USA are going to follow what the WASDE has to say with most experts being a little bearish as production is expected to increase for most everything ----- but you can't count on the experts totally as the USDA can be good at surprises.
Russian export tax – November 10 to November 17 – wheat USD 69.90 m/t – up USD 2.90, barley USD 54.80 m/t – up USD 12.20 m/t and corn USD 50.10 m/t – up USD 0.40 m/t.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $69/70.00 | Down $4.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $69/70.00 | Down $4.00 | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $70/71.00 | Down $4.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $68/69.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $70/71.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $70/71.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $72/73.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $63/64.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $85/86.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $84/85.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $72/73.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $67/68.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $66/67.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $69/70.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $71/72.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $59/60.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $46/47.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $72/73.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $71/72.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $77/78.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | No price |
| X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $46/47.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Down $6.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Down $6.00 | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $70/71.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Indonesia: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $69/70.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $58/59.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $50/51.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $58/59.00 | Down $6.00 | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $45/46.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – (no Handisize included) | 2715 | Down 804 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 3280 | Down 1069 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 3071 | Down 825 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (45,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 2416 | Down 688 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 1726 | Down 246 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2021/January 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 335/340 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 350/353 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 312/318 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 334/340 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 320/325 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 336/339 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 288/293 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 308/312 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 308>>292 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 277/285 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 284/288 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 281/284 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 273>>260 January | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 294>>286 January | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 242/254 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 260/268 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 285/288 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 275/279 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 277/280 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 277/280 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 237/240 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 294/298 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 407>>394 January | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 442>>429 January | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 454/457 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 375>>360 February | C |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 424/428 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 369>>355 February | X |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 481/483 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 530>>465 February | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 505>>465 February | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 567/575 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 700/710 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 230/240 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 268/275 m/t | x |
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Corn byproduct export prices remained steady this week as buyers wait to see what the WASDE report will do for grain/oilseed prices and perhaps lead to lower byproduct prices.
Container shipments continue to be expensive and difficult for byproducts. There was a comment in the trade the container freight lines are not too willing to accept bulk shipments these days due to the extra time that is need for container cleaning. Seems that the prefer nice clean cargo in boxes – which makes sense when container supply is limited.
No one seems to be forecasting lower prices for corn byproducts these days – especially lower CNF prices --- just too many reasons for steady to higher prices for now.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 525/545 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/680 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 615/635 m/t CNF China USD 570/610 to Indonesia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices to Asia are creeping a little higher as supplies from the USA are not available due to freight problems while both Australia and New Zealand supply is tight and prices firm. Prices for animal proteins into major buying markets in Asia are expected to stay firm into January 2022.
Domestic meat and bone meal prices in the USA continue to be weak as supplies build as exports are slowed by a lack of both freight and empty containers. According to the Jacobsen report, any supplier who is able to export is charging a large premium over domestic prices.
USA domestic prices are not expected to move higher while export prices remain very strong,
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Everything is very quiet in Peru as we all wait for the announcement of the next fishing quota. The announcement could come any moment.
While everyone is guessing as to the new quota, everyone is agreed that shipping the new fishmeal production is not going to be easy – since most everything goes in containers and there aren't any empty containers and few container vessels, shipping the new production is not going to be easy. And, looking at freight rates, it will also be expensive.
So, here we are still waiting for the quota and the dates --- hopefully we will hear this week.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,795 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,460 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,600 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,640 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,905 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1450/1470 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1500/1520 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1560/1590 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1610/1630 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t | 1660/1680 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1700/1720 m/t | 1690/1710 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2300/2350 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 2350/2400 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2400/2450 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2600 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2021 Wayne S. Bacon
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