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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 13, 2021
Goodness…what an up week this week for grains and oilseeds: USA corn was up by almost USD 10 m/t, soybeans moved higher by close to USD 15 m/t while soymeal saw a jump of close to USD 30 m/t. USA wheat prices were also strong with spring wheat getting almost USD 20 m/t and winter wheat up between USD 17 and 20 m/t.
There seems to be a couple of reasons for the rally --- export numbers were good for the week and future export levels look good too, especially for corn. With corn, the ethanol guys seem to be buying up everything as the ethanol demand is increasing.
There was also the comment that farmers are holding on to their stocks in hopes of higher grain prices in the next few weeks. Slow farmer selling is a good reason for spot higher prices.
With soybeans, old crop supplies are tight and expensive while new crop is not readily available yet and also expensive. As with corn, slow farmer selling is moving prices higher. It is also said that the slow farmer selling is one main factor behind the rally in soymeal and crushers just can't get the supply of beans to crush to meet current soymeal demand.
Much of the increase in US wheat prices was due to international factors --- very heavy buying by governments – rumors of Russia limiting wheat exports – problems with Australian wheat crop. Along with dry weather in Ukraine that may reduce winter wheat yields and on and on and on ---- lots of bullish factors in wheat these days.
Russian export tax – November 17 to November 23 – wheat USD 77.10 m/t – up USD 7.10, barley USD 66.00 m/t – up USD 11.20 m/t and corn USD 62.90 m/t – up USD 12.80 m/t.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $63/64.00 | Down $6.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $63/64.00 | Down $6.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $64/65.00 | Down $6.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $63/64.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $65/66.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $64/65.00 | Down $6.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $66/67.00 | Down $6.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $78/79.00 | Down $7.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $77/78.00 | Down $7.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Down $9.00 | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $69/70.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $71/72.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $59/60.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $67/68.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $66/67.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $78/79.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | No price |
| X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Down $4.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Down $4.00 | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $71/72.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
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| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Indonesia: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $69/70.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $58/59.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $58/59.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $59/60.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – (no Handisize included) | 2807 | Up 92 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 3836 | Up 556 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 2930 | Down 141 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (45,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 2253 | Down 163 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 1613 | Down 113 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR December 2021/February 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 353/358 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 370/373 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 327/331 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 334/340 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 331/337 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 342/344 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 288/293 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 306/312 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 312/314 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 294/297 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 292/295 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 289/292 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 261/265 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 303>>295 February | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 248/263 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 269/279 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 289/291 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 276/280 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 272/276 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 275/279 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 232>>220 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 298/303 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 445>>427 February | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 477>>462 February | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 461>>452 March | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 399>>384 March | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 439>>433 March | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 399>>378 March | X |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 491/493 |
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| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 535>>457 February | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 508>>475 February | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 560/565 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 710/720 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 230/240 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 280/285 m/t | x |
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This week's close to USD 30 m/t increase in soymeal prices is helping to move corn byproduct prices higher. Corn gluten meal had a very strong week and DDGS prices moved as much as USD 10 m/t higher ---- corn gluten feed seemed calm so far.
The drop in bulk freight prices has not hit container prices yet as containers are still suffering from shortages, backups and severe logistics problems. No one is looking for any container freight relief before 2022.
Major buyers of corn byproducts seemed to be holding back a little. But the hopes of lower prices don't look too good as prices just seem to want to move higher.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 525/545 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/680 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 615/635 m/t CNF China USD 570/610 to Indonesia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
No change in animal protein prices for export this week. Supply from both New Zealand and Australia for Asia buyers is tight, but most buyers are well covered for now --- prices are steady.
The strong rally in soymeal prices is expected to put some upward pressure on meat and bone meal export prices next week.
On the US domestic side of things, the continuing complication with exports is still keeping export prices high while domestic prices move lower. According to the Jacobsen Report ruminant meat and bone meal US domestic prices have dropped 32% with pork MBM down by 43%.
As has been seen for a while in the US, the supply of animal proteins is running well ahead of the demand and until the export situation can be improved there should be continued weakness in domestic prices.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Still no word yet on the next fishing quota but it is expected any moment now. The IMARPE survey has finished and all is soon to be revealed. The word in the market is that most experts are looking for a new quota around 2.5 million m/t. Experts also feel that fishing will begin on Monday 15.
There has been no change in prices this week and the trade has not reported any increase in pre-sales.
The latest numbers from China on fishmeal imports show 2021 imports to reach 1.71 million m/t which is up from 1.42 mm/t last year and well above the recent yearly levels of about 1.4 mm/t.
Revised Peru export numbers for January to September 2021 show a total of 1.09 million m/t of fishmeal exported with 92.56% about 1.00 mm/t going to Asia and 5.3% about 57,400 m/t going to Europe. Needless to say, China is the main buyer with 920,000 m/t – 84.5% of exports.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,720 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,440 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,600 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,635 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,760 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1450/1470 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1500/1520 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1570/1590 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1620/1640 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t | 1665/1685 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1700/1720 m/t | 1700/1720 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2300/2350 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 2350/2400 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2400/2450 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2600 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2021 Wayne S. Bacon
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