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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 20, 2021
The USA Thanksgiving holiday is coming up at the end of next week so we may find that things are very quiet for the week since many offices/companies will only be working for three days. Of course, lots of strange things can happen to prices during holiday weeks – we will just have to wait and see.
For this week all grain/oilseed markets were a little quieter, although soybeans, soymeal and spring wheat did their best to keep markets exciting. Soybeans were up by about USD 7 m/t on the week with soymeal up by USD 9 to 10 m/t while spring wheat prices dropped by close to USD 12 m/t. US corn prices were not too exciting but still moved higher by about USD 3 m/t.
There was a comment in one trade report that farmer selling of grain for the balance of 2021 may be low as farmers don't want to book more income in 2021 so may hold off until 2022 --- this could keep prices from falling or at least keep the interior basis steady to higher.
So, a quiet holiday week to come in the USA – enjoy.
Russian export tax – November 24 to November 30 – wheat USD 78.30 m/t – up USD 1.20, barley USD 65.30 m/t – down USD 0.70 m/t and corn USD 53.60 m/t – down USD 9.30 m/t.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $58/59.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $58/59.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $59/60.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $58/59.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $60/61.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $59/60.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $61/62.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $61/62.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Down $8.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Down $8.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Down $4.00 | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Down $4.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Down $4.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $67/68.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $70/71.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Down $4.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $59/60.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $64/65.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $63/64.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $78/79.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | No price |
| X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Down $6.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Down $6.00 | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Down $8.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $71/72.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | C |
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| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Indonesia: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $67/68.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $61/62.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $58/59.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) | $48/49.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $56/57.00 | Up $6.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $33/34.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $58/59.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $75/76.00 | Up $8.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $39/40.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Down $4.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $54/55.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $61/62.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $36/37.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – (no Handisize included) | 2552 | Down 255 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 3610 | Down 226 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 2282 | Down 648 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (45,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 2237 | Down 16 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 1561 | Down 52 | X |
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| Global Container Index - @Freightos | $9202 | Down 209 | x |
| (Index on Jan 01, 2021 was at $3452) |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR December 2021/February 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 356/360 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 371/374 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 337/341 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 340/345 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 337/348 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 340/342 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 300/306 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 313/324 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 313/315 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 291/294 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 298/301 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 283/286 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 258/261 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 300>>295 February | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 249/253 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 267/275 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 290/292 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 276/280 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 276/279 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 279/282 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 222/225 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 308/311 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 456>>436 February | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 491>>471 February | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 472>>469 March | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 406>>394 March | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 460>>453 March | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 400>>385 March | X |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 496/499 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 550>>476 February | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 517>>481 February | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 563/570 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 700/710 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 245/255 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 276/283 m/t | x |
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USA DDGS prices for Jan/Feb moved a little higher this week but have still not moved as high as recent soymeal increases. It was nice to see a little weakness in container freight this week, although this will not have any effect on CNF prices until late January/February due to the amount of business already booked. Market prices are still strong for all corn byproducts well into 2022 but it is hoped that we will see further weakness in ocean freight that will make CNF prices more attractive.
As one can see from the container freight price index – average container freight levels are up by over 260% since January 01, 2021 --- that means that USD 40 m/t freight has jumped to just over USD 100 m/t --- no wonder CNF prices are still sky-high.
There were a number of comments this week about the lower value of the Turkish lira and how this could affect exports of DDGS – Turkey has been a very good buyer of US DDGS. Will this mean lower export prices – tough to say. There was also the rumor that China was looking to buy US DDGS once again but no confirmation on this rumor.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 525/545 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/680 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 625/645 m/t CNF China USD 600/620 to Indonesia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices into major Asia markets moved a little higher this week on a CNF level as logistics and freight continued to drive prices. The Jacobsen Report was saying that Asian buyer are looking more to Australia and New Zealand for supply these days due to the short transit times and the very difficult shipping problems out of the US. The Report also comments that tightness in supply from both Oz and NZ could move animal protein prices higher as 2021 comes to an end.
Things are very quiet in the US as we are coming up to the Thanksgiving holiday and most buyers are very well covered for animal protein and are only thinking of their upcoming turkey dinner. Domestic demand for meat and bone meal in the US is expected to increase as it is priced very well against soymeal and should start moving into more feed rations. However, these low prices against soymeal will soon disappear as the market gets more balanced – prices are expected it increase as we move through December.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
So, here we are fishing again – with anew quota of 2.047 million m/t that runs until the end of January 2022. Fishing started on the 15th and it look like we are up to about 213,000 m/t landed by late on Thursday. The catch got up to as high as 68,000 m/t on the 18th.
The new quota is about 500,000 m/t lower than what the trade had been expecting but no one seems too unhappy.
One immediate result of the lower quota was that fishmeal prices took a very good jump higher --- up by as much as USD 80 m/t CNF Peru. I guess the lower quota and the chunk of pre-sales got the market realizing that supplies could be short come the end of the season --- so prices ran higher. Prices didn't seem to increase on a sudden rush of buying, as most buyers were not in the market, just seemed to be higher because of the lower quota – not too sure that anyone is actually paying the increased prices. It will be a few days before the market calms down a little and prices reflect actual rather than panic.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,705 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,430 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,605 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,645 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,730 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1530/1550 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1580/1600 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1630/1650 m/t | 1630/1650 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1680/1700 m/t | 1680/1700 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1730/1750 m/t | 1730/1750 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1780/1800 m/t | 1750/1770 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2300/2350 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 2350/2400 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2400/2450 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2600 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2021 Wayne S. Bacon
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