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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT June 11, 2022
This week was USDA WASDE week and, as expected, there seemed to be no major surprises in this month's report. The WASDE shows higher world stocks for corn and soybeans with lower stocks for wheat. Most of the corn ending stocks growth is in Ukraine due to the inability to export corn.
On the world production side of things, the WASDE sees corn production up by 5.0 million m/t, soybean production up slightly and wheat production down by 1.4 mm/t.
Looking at the futures side of the market – corn prices were up by about USD 12 m/t for new crop USA corn with new crop soybeans up by about USD 10 m/t and soymeal up by at least USD 15 m/t. US winter wheat was up between USD 12 and 15 m/t while US spring wheat was up by USD 10 m/t.
It is interesting to note that, even with the Black Sea problems, the USDA sees lower USA corn exports for the year when most experts felt that exports would be higher as the US supplied some of the missing Black Sea corn to the market.
From now on we will all be watching the weather in the USA to see what effect it will have on the US crop and on prices. So far, things are not too bad in the US for the winter crops or the start of the spring crops. Not as bad as in France where we don't seem to have seen any rainfall in weeks.
Other than what might happen in the Black Sea and the US weather there doesn't seem to be a lot of factors to push US prices higher or lower for the moment.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $74/75.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $75/76.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $74/75.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $75/76.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $76/77.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $80/81.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $81/82.00 | Up $14.00 | x |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $85/86.00 | Up $15.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $27/28.00 | steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $68/69.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $77/78.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $90/91.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $70/71.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $76/77.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $68/69.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $71/72.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $96/97.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $59/60.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $70/71.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $72/73.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $71/72.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $96/97.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $82/83.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 2320 | Down 313 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2371 | Down 556 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 2629 | Down 222 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 2495 | Down 208 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 1417 | Down 178 | X |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 7261 | Down 109 | x |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2022/August 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 415 -- 460 October | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 470 -- 490 October | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | No prices | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | No prices | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 405/410 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 412/416 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 480/495 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 375/380 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 377/380 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 380/385 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 380/385 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 380/385 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 339/343 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 375>>360 September | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 295/303 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 323/328 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 355/360 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 350/355 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | No prices | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | No prices | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 295 --310 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 385>>370 October | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 520>>495 October | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 555>>530 October | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 530/535 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 485>>475 October | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 535/545 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 490>>475 October | X |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 680>>640 October | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 670>>620 October | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 690>>660 October | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 825/830 m/t August | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 310/315 m/t August | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 340/345 m/t Sept. | X |
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Although corn prices were higher this week all corn byproducts moved a little lower but there is some concern that the closing of ethanol facilities for pre-harvest maintenance could lower available DDGS supplies for a few weeks and push DDGS prices higher.
Both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed prices moved about USD 5 m/t lower which really means that prices overall were unchanged on the week.
Export business for corn gluten meal is weak these days but business for both DDGS and CGF has continued quite strong.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
As a result of a number of fishing bans the total catch was lower this week at about 132,000 m/t which brings the total catch up to 1.346 million m/t and leaves 1.445 mm/t still open on the quota. Fishmeal production to date is estimated at 300,000 m/t with fishoil at just under 39,000 m/t.
Trade reports say that current fishmeal sales are now up to about 370,000 m/t but that the current sales market is very, very quiet at present. Also, trade reports say that there is a shortage of Super Prime and Prime fishmeal being produced which is giving some producers problems in meeting existing orders.
All fishmeal prices in Peru were steady this week although it is said that some exporters were looking for higher prices, but buyers weren't looking to get booked. Fishmeal stocks on hand in China are very high so there is no rush by Chinese buyers to lock in additional supply. However, the local demand for fishmeal in China seems to be getting back too normal levels so large inventories will start to be worked down.
The first of this fishing seasons fishmeal production is reported to have started loading in export containers.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,080 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,635 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,740 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,780 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,090 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein standard steam | 1550/1570 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t | 1670/1690 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1700/1720 m/t | 1720/1740 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1750/1770 m/t | 1770/1790 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 3200/3250 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 3300/3350 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 3400/3450 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 3700/3800 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
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