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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT June 18, 2022
Monday is a holiday in the US, so grain markets and most companies will be closed.
This week we had US corn up by USD 4 or 5 m/t while soybeans dropped by almost USD 15 m/t and soymeal moved higher by USD 5 m/t. All US wheat prices were down on the week with soft red winter what down by about USD 14 m/t, hard red winter down by just over USD 20 m/t and spring wheat down by about USD 18 m/t.
According to the trade experts, wheat prices dropped strongly due to the rally in the US dollar. The feeling being that, with a higher dollar, wheat prices will have to drop in order to compete in export markets. There have also been quite a few stories that a wheat export corridor may be in the works with Russia and Ukraine. Everyone is afraid to be long wheat with so many bearish stories about.
Looking at corn, the expert say that corn price normally reaches its high in June/July then starts to fall due to the upcoming harvest. So, I guess that means that we will have continued strong prices for corn until the fall harvest starts to get factored in to prices – September and later.
Soybeans were down on the week as there wasn't any positive news to keep prices steady. No one much seemed to want soybeans or even soymeal this week as all the buying interest was for soyoil. Trade reports were speculating that many were afraid of being long over a three day weekend so sold out – which could mean that prices for soybeans may move back higher next week.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $74/75.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $75/76.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $74/75.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $75/76.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $76/77.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $80/81.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $88/89.00 | Up $7.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $93/94.00 | Up $8.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $27/28.00 | steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $77/78.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $91/92.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $71/72.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $77/78.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $76/77.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $76/77.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $69/70.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $72/73.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $97/98.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $59/60.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $71/72.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $73/74.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $72/73.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $97/98.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $83/84.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $30/31.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 2578 | Up 258 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2987 | Up 616 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 2862 | Up 233 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 2467 | Down 28 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 1343 | Down 74 | X |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 7098 | Down 163 | X |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2022/August 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 400 -- 440 October | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 465 -- 485 October | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | No prices | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 427/430 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 405/410 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 425/430 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 485/495 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 375/385 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 376/380 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 365/375 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 365/375 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 375/385 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 340/350 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 390>>370 September | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 300/315 October | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 320/330 October | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 365/370 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 345/350 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 285/290 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | No prices | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 285 --310 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 370>>365 October | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 545>>525 October | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 580>>560 October | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 510/515 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 490>>480 October | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 515/520 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 490>>480 October | X |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 675>>640 October | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 650>>615 October | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 670>>650 October | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 795/800 m/t August | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 310/315 m/t August | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 330/335 m/t Sept. | x |
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Prices of corn byproducts slipped a little lower this week as corn and soymeal moved lower and export buying was thin with everyone hoping for lower prices to come.
Buyers have been looking to cover needs later in the year, but exporters seem very hesitant to offer prices further out --- they just see too much risk in prices later in the year.
Interesting to note that the US Grains Council report this week has FOB DDGS down by about USD 15 m/t while CNF prices to Asia are, they say, higher by almost USD 15 m/t – that looks like a USD 30 m/t spread on DDGS prices.
Corn gluten prices were also lower this week which did attract some buying interest, but buyers were bidding below the market so didn't see any business getting done.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing was down a little in Peru again this week as mini-bans continue to restrict the catches. The week reached about 185,000 m/t of catch bringing the total up to 1.677 million m/t which leaves about 1.1 mm/t to go to full quota. The percentage of juvenile fish being landed is still quite high, so the bans are expected to continue in high juvenile areas. Expectation is that the government will increase the allowed juvenile level so that fishing can continue.
Fishmeal production to date is estimated at about 374,000 m/t with fishoil at 51,000 m/t.
Everyone is wondering these days on how much of the quota will actually be landed. Most experts seem to feel that the total 2.79 mm/t will not be landed with estimates being between 2.0 and 2.5 mm/t.
Peru is reported to have a very limited supply of Super Prime fishmeal which is what Chinese buyers are currently looking for --- they may have to lower the preferred grade a little.
New business in Peru is limited this week as buyers are watching the fishing and sellers are worried about what might happen with the juvenile quota. More fishing bans and lower overall grade levels could push prices higher in coming weeks, but it is tough to know for sure.
According to the latest numbers, Peru exported 443,000 m/t of fishmeal to the end of May with 81.3% - 360,300 m/t - going to China. Ecuador is the second largest destination with 7.9% - 34,800 m/t - of fishmeal exports
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,080 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,590 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,735 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,780 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,075 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1550/1570 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t | 1650/1670 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1700/1720 m/t | 1700/1720 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1750/1770 m/t | 1730/1750 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 3600/3650 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 3900/4000 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
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