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Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT June 04, 2022
Amazing how a couple of words from Russia can cause the market to drop much lower. While it does seem that there "might" be a compromise on some grain shipments out of the Ukraine, it may be that the "consideration" demanded by Russia may be too high to allow it to work.
Russia is getting many visits from grain short countries, many in Africa, and Russia is said to be looking at all possibilities to support them. While there is no international ban on Russian grain exports, payment by importing countries is a problem due to banking sanctions.
Will we shortly see the free flow of Ukraine grain in the near future – probably not, unless one wants to totally give in to Russia.
US corn prices dropped by about USD 20 m/t this week with soybeans down by about USD 8 m/t and soymeal down by about USD 25 m/t. Both USA winter and spring wheats were down by just over USD 40 m/t.
Much of the drop in prices this week was due to the futures markets interpretation of what was going to happen in the Black Sea and the "fear," expectation that grain exports will become much easier. Those in the futures market in the US with "long" positions used this week to sell out and take profits or to get out before there weren't any futures profits.
Of course, Russia wasn't the only story as there was improving rainfall in the US corn belt and US winter wheat harvest was chugging along nicely in the South --- but there has been some rainfall in Texas and Kansas that slowed wheat harvest a little in some area.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $36/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $75/76.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $76/77.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $75/76.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $76/77.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $77/78.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $80/81.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $67/68.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $70/71.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $27/28.00 | steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $67/68.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $77/78.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $89/90.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $69/70.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $77/78.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $76/77.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $67/68.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $70/71.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $95/96.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $59/60.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $69/70.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $71/72.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $70/71.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $95/96.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $81/82.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $26/27.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 2633 | Down 48 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2927 | Up 109 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 2851 | Down 197 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 2703 | Down 93 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 1595 | Down 52 | X |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 7370 | Down 481 | x |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2022/August 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 405 -- 444 October | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 456 -- 480 October | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | No prices | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 425/428 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 405/410 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 413/416 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 470/490 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 385>>370 October | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 365/375 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 370/375 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 380/385 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 385/390 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 325/330 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 355>>345 September | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 295/300 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 315/320 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 360/365 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 360/365 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | No prices | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | No prices | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 310/320 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 370>>360 October | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 490>>480 October | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 525>>515 October | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 525/530 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 470>>460 October | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 530/535 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 475>>465 October | X |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 670>>630 October | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 660>>605 October | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 680>>640 October | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 815/820 m/t August | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 305/310 m/t August | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 330/335 m/t Sept. | x |
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While both corn and soymeal prices were lower on the week, export prices were steady to just a little lower. Container prices are dropping a little, so CNF prices look to be about USD 10 m/t lower for all corn byproducts.
Reports from the USA say that Mississippi barge rates are higher which may stop FOB prices from moving any lower --- barge rates are up as much as USD 18 m/t according to the US Grains Council.
Business was quite slow this week due to the holiday on Monday as most buyers had booked their short term needs before the 3 day weekend.
With ethanol production moving higher we could see some softening in DDGS prices in the near term but both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed look quite steady — for now.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in North/Central Peru has reached 1.12 million m/t which leaves 1.675 mm/t on the quota. Daily catch last week ranged from the high 30,000 to just over 60,000 with about 500 vessels out fishing every day.
There are still a number of mini-bans on fishing, but overall fishing is still quite good. Juvenile levels are said to be dropping which may mean fewer bans in coming days.
There was very little new business done this week. It is said that Chinese buyers are looking for lower prices and if fishing stays good, they may just see some price weakness.
Lots of talk in the industry about the possibility of not landing the full quota before expiry --- some still seem to feel that 2.0 mm/t of landing may be as high as we will get this season.
MSI Ceres mentioned this week that a La Nina effect has made it very cold in Peru and that finding the anchovies and avoiding too many juveniles has become quite a challenge for the fishing fleet.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,095 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,635 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,740 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,785 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,100 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein standard steam | 1550/1570 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t | 1670/1690 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1700/1720 m/t | 1720/1740 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1750/1770 m/t | 1770/1790 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 3200/3250 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 3300/3350 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 3400/3450 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 3700/3800 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
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