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Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 23, 2022
The biggest news this week was the signing of a 120-day agreement for the export of grain from both Ukraine and Russia Black Sea ports. Renewal beyond 120 days is possible if both Ukraine and Russia agree.
The agreement is said to include:
· Russia to stop targeting Ukraine export ports.
· Ukraine to lead cargo ships through mined waters.
· Turkey and the UK will inspect inbound vessels to insure no weapons on board.
· Russian grain and fertilizer exports will be "facilitated".
While the agreement has been signed it is not expected that there will be an immediate resumption of grain/oilseed/veg oils shipments from blockaded Ukraine ports. Depending on the port there may be infrastructure repairs or rebuilding required.
USA wheat prices had been up on the week until the Black Sea Agreement which pushed US wheat prices lower for the week in anticipation of increased wheat shipments from the Black Sea – although this will not happen overnight and judging by past agreements does have the risk of not happening at all. Both sides to the agreement do have the habit of objecting to almost anything.
US corn prices were also lower on the week much of it due to the Black Sea but also due to very good weather in the US and quite good crop rating so far. It also looks like the European corn crop will be very good – even with the continuing heat wave. For now, corn looks to be bearish.
US soybeans were also down on the week as the good weather will also help the soybean crop. There was also word that China had moved some business from US to lower priced Brazil soybeans, this helps push prices lower.
Wheat prices at the end of the week saw both the effects of the Black Sea Agreement along with the very good weather for spring wheat in the US moving prices lower. In the futures market, all the speculators were rushing to get out of any long wheat positions, pushing prices lower.
So far in July, Ukraine has exported 700,000 m/t of corn with 335,000 going to Romania, 120,000 m/t to Poland and 45,000 m/t to Hungary. Wheat exports for July were at 211,000 m/t mainly to Romania and Turkey. July barley exports were at 92,000 m/t most to Romania.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $68/69.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $69/70.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $68/69.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $69/70.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $73/74.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $94/95.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $97/98.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $96/97.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $75/76.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $81/82.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $74/75.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $76/77.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $102/103.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $75/76.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $78/79.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $77/78.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $102/103.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $87/88.00 | Steady | X |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Steady | x |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 2146 | Down 4 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2696 | Down 223 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 2093 | Up 208 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 2080 | Up 41 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 1211 | Up 30 | X |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 6319 | Down 95 | x |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2022/October 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 317 -- 341 October | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 362 -- 378 October | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | No prices | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 360/365 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 360/365 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 340/344 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 400/410 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 325/330 October | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 300/305 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 340/345 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 320/325 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 330/340 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 290>>275 November | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 305>>295 November | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 240/250 November | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 260/270 November | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 315>>300 October | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 310/320 | x |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 285/290 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 300/305 Constanza | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 260 --270 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 305/310 October | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 540>>490 October | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 575>>525 October | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 520/525 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 475>>465 October | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 520/530 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 475>>465 October | X |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 580>>550 October | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 565>>540 October | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 580>>565 October | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 810/820 m/t October | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 310/320 m/t October | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 300/310 m/t October | x |
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FOB NOLA prices for DDGS were lower this week, much of it due to the improvement in barge prices down the Mississippi River. We haven't seen DDGS export prices at the USD 300 level in a while.
Both corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal were steady on the week and most export positions are sold out into late September – especially for any container shipments. Although the international container price index has shown some weakness in the past few weeks there has not been any drop in export container freight costs from US ports. Still too much congestion and too few available containers and loading slots.
With corn prices down this week, we could see some weakness in corn byproduct prices through next week --- or perhaps not.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Well, we have reached the end of another North/Central fishing season and it seems that we will finish off somewhere around 2.3 million m/t of catch which is just shy of 550,000 m/t of fishmeal and close to 480,000 m/t is already sold.
Now that the season has ended the trade expects that prices will move higher as stock is limited and for some grades there is no stock – like super prime.
Peru is on holidays next week for several days to celebrate National Independence – from the 27th through to August 1st.
There won't be much to report for Peru fishmeal for the next few weeks just increasing prices as stocks get smaller and smaller.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,035 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,575 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,755 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,800 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,035 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66% protein standard steam | 1550/1570 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1600/1620 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1700/1720 m/t Sold out | 1650/1670 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1750/1770 m/t | 1700/1720 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1800/1820 m/t Sold out | 1740/1760 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 3600/3650 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 4200/4300 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
