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Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 09, 2022
Next week is USDA WASDE week which may or may not shake up the markets. According to trade reports on Friday, most experts feel that the USDA report will be bullish. Expert also feel that from now on the USA weather will be the major factor affecting grain/oilseed prices although the strength in the US$ will also be a major factor to importers of US grains.
The week ended very strong for grains and oilseeds with higher prices on Friday revering most of the losses seen earlier in the week. US corn prices ended the week up by about USD 10 m/t with soybeans looking almost unchanged after a very strong Friday. Depending on the month, soymeal was up as much as USD 20 m/t. USA wheat was higher for all types with winter wheat up by about USD 15 m/t and new crop spring wheat up by USD 16 m/t.
Trade reports say that the wheat prices were all higher due to the strong US$ and a very good pace of wheat exports. The USA hard red winter wheat harvest is about 30% completed with soft red winter wheat at 85% harvested. Quality looks good, test weights are high --- looks like a good winter wheat year.
Weather looks to be a supporting factor for corn and soybeans with hot dry weather said to be "stressing" both corn and soybean crops in the US. The concerns are that the hot dry weather could interfere with the upcoming pollination period which may lead to lower yields --- but it is early days for this.
Tuesday will be interesting when we get to see what the latest WASDE has to say.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $73/74.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $73/74.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $74/75.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $73/74.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $74/75.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $75/76.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $73/74.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $63/64.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $95/96.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $99/100.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $94/95.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $72/73.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $72/73.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $72/73.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $74/75.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $100/101.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $72/73.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $76/77.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $73/74.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $75/76.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $100/101.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $73/74.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $86/87.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 2067 | Down 147 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2270 | Down 111 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 2223 | Down 254 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 2163 | Down 127 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 1185 | Down 91 | X |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 6495 | Down 82 | x |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2022/October 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 370 -- 388 October | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 392 -- 413 October | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | No prices |
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| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 357/362 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 365/370 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 361/365 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 410/420 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 335/342 October | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 311/315 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 350/355 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 320/325 | x |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 355/360 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 320>>305 October | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 335>>320 October | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 260/265 October | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 280/285 October | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 339>>330 October | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 317/323 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 295/300 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | No prices | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 265 --280 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 355>>320 October | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 540>>515 October | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 575>>540 October | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 525/530 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 485>>465 October | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 525/530 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 490>>470 October | X |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 610>>575 October | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 590>>550 October | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 615>>585 October | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 790/800 m/t October | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 300/310 m/t October | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 310/320 m/t October |
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DDGS prices in the USA moved a little lower this week as export buyers tended to be out of the market and sellers became a little more aggressive. There didn't seem to be any weakness in DDGS CNF prices although container rates are reported to be softening a little.
Corn gluten meal prices moved higher this week as there was a jump in export demand to major CGM markets – mainly Egypt. While there were export buyer shopping around most had hoped for lower prices and tended to be bidding at least USD 20 m/t below market levels.
Corn gluten feed prices were steady on the week.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
We had some fishing again this week as some of the bans expired – total for the week was at about 92,000 m/t which puts the total catch up to just about 2.1 million m/t against the quota of 2.792 mm/t.
The southern Peru quota ran out at the end of June with the catch finishing at about 200,000 m/t against the quota od 486,500 m/t. The new southern quota has been announced – 496,500 m/t running until December 31, 2022.
Fishmeal prices in Peru dipped a little this week as it looks like to full quota might still be possible – if not the full quota, at least quite close. It doesn't look like continued high juvenile fish levels will have any effect on fishing or on government action.
The trade estimates that about 450,000 m/t of fishmeal have been sold which may leave around 50,000 m/t still available for sale --- not a huge quantity but enough to cover current interest. The problem for buyers is that there is no Super Prime fishmeal available at all – we are standing at about a USD 50 m/t spread between fishmeal grade level prices.
Longer term, no one is looking for any weakness in fishmeal prices.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,095 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,565 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,755 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,800 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,090 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1580/1600 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1630/1650 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1680/1700 m/t | 1650/1670 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1730/1750 m/t | 1700/1720 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1780/1800 m/t | 1740/1760 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 3600/3650 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 4200/4300 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
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