-------------------------
Corporate Head Office: 1st Floor, Building A, Caves Corporate Center,
Blake Road and West Bay Street, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 16, 2022
This was quite an up and down week with USDA WASDE reports and stories of possible improvement in Ukraine grain exports. With a week of somewhat bullish WASDE, strong US dollar, hot and dry weather in the US and disappointing weekly exports, it seemed the market couldn't be too sure on which way it wanted to go.
US corn prices were down by about USD 8 m/t with soybeans down as much as USD 20 m/t and soymeal down by USD 9 to 12 m/t. US winter wheat was down by as much as USD 42 m/t while spring wheat saw a drop of about USD 30 m/t.
It is interesting that corn and soybeans were lower when the weather forecast suggests that they should be moving higher due to the risk to yields caused by the hot and dry weather. Experts seem to feel that it was perhaps more concern over the very strong US dollar than about the weather. The stronger the dollar gets the less competitive US corn and beans will be in international markets.
The feeling for lower wheat prices seems to be due to the "possible" improvement in the Ukraine export situation and the very strong US dollars --- both quite bearish factors for US wheat exports. Any improvement in Ukraine grain exports from Black Sea ports – if it happens – will probably take some time to accomplish, as there will be a great deal of repair needed to infrastructure before much export flow could be seen.
---------------------------
Just a quick note on Ukraine grain exports --- last week's export numbers were at 315,000 m/t with 210,000 m/t said to be corn, wheat at 80,000 m/t and barley at 34,000 m/t. The majority of the shipments were to Romania which is expected to be just the first port for the shipments, as Romania does not need corn, wheat or barley for domestic use.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $70/71.00 | Down $3.00 |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Down $3.00 |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $71/72.00 | Down $3.00 |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $70/71.00 | Down $3.00 |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $71/72.00 | Down $3.00 |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $75/76.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Down $4.00 |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Down $4.00 |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $63/64.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $95/96.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $98/99.00 | Down $1.00 |
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $27/28.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $68/69.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $55/56.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $26/27.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $95/96.00 | Up $1.00 |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $38/39.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $73/74.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Down $4.00 |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Down $4.00 |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $80/81.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $73/74.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $74/75.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $101/102.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $73/74.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $77/78.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $76/77.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $101/102.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $87/88.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
|
|
|
| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
|
|
|
| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $28/29.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $34/35.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $25/26.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index | 2150 | Up 83 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2919 | Up 649 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1885 | Down 338 |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 2039 | Down 124 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 1181 | Down 4 |
|
|
|
|
| Global Container Index - Freightos | 6414 | Down 81 |
|
|
|
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2022/October 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 326 -- 347 October |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 370 -- 384 October |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | No prices |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 355/365 |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 365/370 |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 348/351 |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 400/410 |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 335/340 October |
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 285/290 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 335/345 |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 330/345 |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 345/350 |
|
|
|
| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 300>>295 October |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 345>>320 October |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 255/262 October |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 270/280 October |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 320>>300 October |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 315/325 |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 305/310 |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 305/310 Constanza |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 260 --270 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 340>>330 October |
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 540>>475 October |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 575>>510 October |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 525/530 |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 475>>465 October |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 530/540 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 475>>465 October |
|
|
|
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 575>>535 October |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 575>>535 October |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 590>>575 October |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 805/820 m/t October |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 310/320 m/t October |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 320/330 m/t October |
|
|
|
All corn byproduct prices moved higher this week, even with corn and soymeal prices moving a little lower. Trade reports say that the supply of both DDGS and corn gluten meal is a little tight at present which is keeping prices steady to higher.
According to the US Grains Council (USGC) weekly report, export trade has been quiet but higher barge rates for Mississippi barges are pushing CNF NOLA prices up for August on. USGC says that barge quotations are up by USD 20 m/t for August to October.
For buyers who take US corn byproducts by container, the container freight rates continue to drop this week as has been seen for several weeks now. CNF prices in containers are reported to be down by about USD 10 m/t.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in Peru was lower this week due to mini-bans, but total catch still reached almost 70,000 m/t which brings the season total up to 2,223,700 m/t with about 570,000 m/t left to reach the full seasons quota.
There was a little business done this week but the trade estimates that about 70,000 m/t of fishmeal is unsold --- but none of that is Super Prime, as it is sold out. Current buyers seem to be looking at small lots for August/September shipment.
It looks like the fishing is going to go one right to the end of the quota period on July 31, but it doesn't look like the full quota will be landed --- probably only at about 2.5 mm/t of catch – which is about where most experts thought that the quota would be set back a few weeks ago.
There have been some comments in the trade that the government may stop the fishing early due to the continued high level of juvenile fish. With only a couple of weeks to go in the season, an early stop shouldn't have a major effect on fishmeal supply or prices.
Over the next few weeks as the unsold stock levels shrink buyers will have to pay higher prices to get something out of what little will remain. Buyers should not be expecting any weakness in prices.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,095 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,565 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,755 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,800 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,090 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 65/66% protein standard steam | 1550/1570 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1600/1620 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1700/1720 m/t Sold out | 1650/1670 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1750/1770 m/t | 1700/1720 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1800/1820 m/t Sold out | 1740/1760 |
|
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 3600/3650 |
|
| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 4200/4300 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.